Shawn Robinson deserves a (real) chance
The dual-threat gunslinger is the future of TCU football. Why not get a headstart on that future in 2017?
TCU has had three quarterback competitions in the past four years, and they’ve come with exactly zero drama.
In 2013, 2014 and 2016, the Horned Frogs went through the same routine. Every time, they had two passers “competing” for the starting job through fall camp. Every time, head coach Gary Patterson insisted there wasn’t much separation between the two. And every time, he went with the guy with more starting experience.
Casey Pachall over Trevone Boykin. Trevone Boykin over Matt Joeckel. Kenny Hill over Foster Sawyer. Predictable. Drama-free.
So when recently enrolled 4-star quarterback Shawn Robinson starts taking reps in spring practice alongside Hill in a few weeks, Patterson will probably say that he’s not sure who will start in 2017. And odds are he won’t be telling the truth.
But maybe he should be.
TCU’s offense is in desperate need of a spark after an epic collapse last season. The unit averaged 31.0 points per game in 2016, a drop-off of more than 11 points per game from the year before. The Frogs were held under 30 points six times in 13 games. They had failed to score that many points just five times in the previous 26 games combined. Not surprisingly, that decline corresponded with TCU’s worst season since 2013, and only its third losing season under Patterson.
A key component of that decline was some of the program’s worst quarterback play in recent memory. Hill threw a Big 12-leading 13 interceptions and struggled to move the ball with any consistency. TCU benched him twice in favor of Sawyer, whose career completion rate is 45.1. In a Big 12 known for great quarterbacks, TCU had trouble finding a serviceable one.
Robinson enters that environment as the No. 7 dual-threat quarterback in the country and the 197th-ranked prospect overall for 2017, according to the 247Sports Composite.
In 2016, he led Dallas-area powerhouse DeSoto to an undefeated season (16–0) and its first state championship in school history. He finished the year with 3,416 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions to go with 1,439 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns. Whether through the air or on the ground, he was making highlights — and winning games — all season.
Anticipation had already been building around Robinson’s arrival as an early enrollee in January, even though it was believed he would redshirt in 2017. Then Sawyer transferred to Stephen F. Austin, leaving TCU with even less depth at quarterback and an interesting choice: run it back with Hill, or give the true freshman the reins from the start. And at least for now, the answer shouldn’t be a given.
Robinson has upside. Tons of it. He can elude and outrun defenders in open space. The ball comes out of his hands with velocity. He can throw vertically downfield, and he throws well on the run.
The true freshman actually draws a lot of (very premature) comparisons to Boykin for those reasons.
He’s also very raw. His accuracy is spotty. He completed just 58.2 percent of his passes as a senior, behind an offensive line with three players who will be on Power 5 rosters this fall. He also got to throw to stud 4-star receiver K.D. Nixon. His decision-making is questionable at times as well.
And while there’s not usually much to learn about players from the big annual all-star games, Robinson’s stat line playing against the nation’s best at the U.S. Army All-American Bowl was ugly: 1-of-3 passing for 4 yards, 3 carries for -9 yards, 2 fumbles, 1 lost.
“He has a strong arm but no control,” 247Sports’ E.J. Holland wrote of Robinson after watching him at Army Bowl practices. His performance that week was part of the reason he dropped to a 3-star prospect in Rivals.com’s final rankings.
The true freshman is going to be a project, no matter how talented he is. If co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Sonny Cumbie made Robinson’s accuracy and touch serviceable in his first season on campus, it would cement his reputation as a quarterback whisperer.
Hill, meanwhile, brings experience. He can make plays as a runner too, as well as throw a nice deep ball. The rising senior also has a vote of confidence from Cumbie, now the lead play-caller after Doug Meacham left for Kansas.
“Personally I was pleased with how (Hill) played, how he battled, how he competed,” Cumbie told the Star-Telegram’s Carlos Mendez before the Liberty Bowl.
For all his faults, Hill completed 61.1 percent of his passes last season. He did so against college competition, behind a maligned offensive line and with no go-to receiver.
His level of play declined precipitously as the season progressed, though. During TCU’s 3–1 start, he completed 66.1 percent of his passes and threw for 371.8 yards per game with six touchdowns and four interceptions. But in those four games, the Frogs faced one FBS team that finished with a winning record: Arkansas (7–6). TCU faced six teams that finished over .500 in its last nine games. Hill’s completion percentage dropped to 57.7 during that stretch, and he threw for 191.2 yards per game with 11 touchdown passes and nine interceptions as TCU went 3–6.
It was the same story when Hill was starting at Texas A&M in 2014. He threw 17 touchdowns and two interceptions as the Aggies sprinted to 5–0 that season, but he did so against South Carolina, Lamar, Rice, SMU and Arkansas. Then Texas A&M faced three teams in a row that would finish the regular season ranked in the top 10 (Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama), and his performance cratered. He had six touchdowns against six interceptions and an 0–3 record in those games. Kevin Sumlin benched Hill after a 59–0 beatdown at the hands of the Crimson Tide, and he never played another down for the Aggies.
Trusting a true freshman with running an offense is risky. But against actual competition, Hill has yet to prove that he’s exactly trustworthy either.
Now immediately asking Robinson to direct an offense that depends on precision and timing from the quarterback could make for a rocky transition for the freshman. However, TCU may have already started implementing a solution. It’s the same one Cumbie and Meacham used three years ago.
When TCU began installing the Air Raid in 2014, Cumbie and Meacham held on to some of the option elements from the Frogs’ old offense. They ran the zone read and speed option on a fairly regular basis, which made the transition between systems easier for the players. It also let Boykin utilize his speed and athleticism to gash defenses. Over the next two seasons, the Frogs used the option often, and to great effect.
The tactic gave more balance to the typically pass-heavy Air Raid offense, and it would be ideal for Robinson’s skill set. TCU essentially abandoned the strategy early in 2016 after Boykin left for the NFL. But late in the season, Hill’s struggles as a passer made the Frogs realize their need for a consistent ground game, and they re-introduced it.
After running the ball just 43.5 percent of the time in their first seven games, the Frogs ran the ball 55.7 percent of the time over their last six. Running back Kyle Hicks carried the ball 15 times or more in all of those games, twice hitting the 25-carry mark.
Hill was featured more as a runner as well. He had 50 yards rushing or more five times over their final six games. In TCU’s first seven games, he had done that just once.
Robinson, a more natural runner than Hill, could do even better. And those option wrinkles could then set up play-action passes and run-pass options that would make the offense truly dangerous.
TCU isn’t going to abandon the Air Raid with Cumbie calling the plays. That doesn’t mean he can’t make adjustments based on his personnel. And with the promotion of running backs coach Curtis Luper to co-offensive coordinator, the option-based running attack is sure to figure even more into those adjustments.
“The offense is not going to change, but we got to get better,” Cumbie told Mendez after Meacham’s departure. “We’ve got to figure out what we’re good at and play to our strengths. That’s the biggest thing I see.”
Incorporating the option played to TCU’s strengths from 2014–2015. Re-incorporating those concepts would mesh with Robinson’s talents nicely. Maybe even throw in some inverted veer, another play Robinson is very familiar with, and one that has its roots at TCU.
If Robinson’s going to legitimately challenge to be the starter, TCU has to shape the play-calling to fit what he does well. His development as a pocket passer will take time, but he has speed and arm strength that defenses will have to respect from the moment he steps on the field.
In the past, Patterson has expressed reluctance to start young quarterbacks too soon for fear of hurting their confidence. Whether or not he still thinks like that, the sentiment doesn’t hold up in college football today.
There’s a long list of true freshman quarterbacks who have had immediate success (to varying degrees) in recent years. Baker Mayfield. Davis Webb. Kyle Allen. Patrick Mahomes. Mason Rudolph. Josh Rosen. Kyler Murray. Jarrett Stidham. Jalen Hurts. Shane Buechele. Jacob Eason. Jake Bentley. Shea Patterson.
There’s no reason Robinson can’t do the same thing, especially in a system where quarterbacks are often able to flourish right away. Back in 2013, pretty much everyone but Patterson had given up on Boykin as a quarterback. He had already begun the transition to receiver, a position many thought was better for him. Then TCU hired Cumbie and Meacham in December. Midway through the following season, Boykin had transformed from a lost cause into a Heisman contender. In less than a year, the Air Raid (and Cumbie) saved his college career.
Conversely, Hill is going into his third year under Cumbie’s coaching in Fort Worth. Between TCU and Texas A&M, this season will be his fifth year in the Air Raid. And yet there are still questions about his viability as a starting quarterback. In an offense designed to make things easy for a passer right away, it seems overly optimistic to predict things will suddenly click for Hill in 2017. At this point, he is what he is.
No one knows what Robinson is, or what he can be. So put him on the field and find out. Give him the advantage of one of TCU’s most experienced defenses in years. Let him lean on Hicks and a deep group of running backs. Tailor the play-calling to his natural talents and find out if those Boykin comparisons are legit.
Patterson is going to tell everyone that Robinson has a real shot at the job. The least he can do is actually mean it.
