TCU Football Is All-New, All-Different. Will it Be Good?
The 2022 TCU football preview.
TCU football was the epitome of consistency for most of the last two decades. The Horned Frogs were a machine that churned out 10-win seasons, dominant defenses, and conference titles under Gary Patterson as he became the winningest coach in school history.
Then that machine started breaking down. Over the last four years, Patterson went 21–22 as the Frogs missed out on bowl eligibility twice. They struggled to establish an effective offensive identity, and Patterson’s once iconic defense cratered.
In the same time frame, former TCU assistant Sonny Dykes was leading rival SMU to a 40–17 mark, the most wins for the program in a four-year stretch since 1984. He also led SMU to back-to-back wins over TCU in the Battle for the Iron Skillet for the first time since 1993.
So when TCU and Patterson parted ways on Oct. 31, 2021, Dykes immediately became one of the frontrunners for the job, and on Nov. 29, the Frogs officially named Dykes as their head coach.
TCU athletics director Jeremiah Donati clearly wanted something different, and he’s gotten it thus far.
Dykes has made schematic overhauls on both sides of the ball. On offense, TCU will run a true Air Raid that’s up-tempo and pass-heavy, a major departure from Patterson’s emphasis on consuming the clock with the run game. On defense, the Frogs will run an entirely new system, trading the complexity and aggressiveness of Patterson’s scheme for more of a bend-don’t-break approach.
Dykes has put together a coaching staff hellbent on improving the program’s recruiting in the the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the state of Texas at large in the long-term, and he’s scoured the transfer portal for immediate contributors in the short-term. Patterson bemoaned how name, image, and likeness (NIL) deals and the portal had changed the landscape of college football, but Dykes is actively trying to use them to his advantage as he builds out his roster.
Dykes has taken major steps to rebrand TCU this offseason. The Frogs have opened practices to reporters and fans, and they’ve regularly made players and assistants available for interviews. After years of closing themselves off from media and fans, they’re doing everything they can to drum up excitement around “DFW’s Big 12 Team” and give their players more exposure.
Of course, new and different don’t automatically mean better. Whether any of these changes will lead to real on-field improvements, particularly this year, is an open question. There could be a major adjustment period for the new defense. The offense’s success will depend on major developmental leaps from key positions. The branding efforts certainly make the team more interesting, but they won’t matter unless they actually improve TCU’s ability to attract and retain top talent.
There are also legitimate questions about what TCU’s ceiling can be under Dykes, who has one conference title (in the WAC) in 11 years as a head coach and whose teams have not been known for seriously challenging the top programs in their leagues.
But should all the new and all the different actually yield the desired results–as in, a more talented roster that plays faster on both sides of the ball–the Frogs believe they can make significant improvements quickly and give Dykes the opportunity to achieve things he’s never done before as a head coach.
Offense: House of M(orris)
TCU’s offense suffered from an identity crisis for most of the past four seasons. The Frogs had play callers in Sonny Cumbie and then Doug Meacham who specialized in and recruited for the Air Raid, an offense all about pace and space. But they had a head coach in Patterson who wanted to dominate time of possession and play for field position.
The results were maddening. The Frogs had the athleticism and speed at the skill positions to move the ball effectively, but no coherent plan to utilize those playmakers.
The Frogs finished the 2021 season at №38 in offensive SP+, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, largely because having stars like Zach Evans and Quentin Johnston was enough to overcome predictable, unimaginative play calling. TCU sometimes could simply run the ball and call a few deep passes, and their talent advantage would win out.
But when teams had the ability to load the box and limit the rushing attack, the Frogs had no real way to make them pay for it. The Frogs would try to throw vertically down the sideline against one-on-one coverage, but Max Duggan didn’t have the accuracy to make defenses respect those throws, and his offensive line was abysmal in pass protection. The Air Raid trademarks of tempo and getting playmakers the ball in the open field were largely absent. In the twilight years of the Patterson era, controlling the clock and ensuring solid field position for his defense trumped all other considerations.
Under Dykes and new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, there will no longer be any doubt about the Frogs’ offensive identity. They’re going to truly be an Air Raid team. They’re going to force their opponents to defend sideline-to-sideline in the passing game. They’re going to make defensive backs cover and tackle TCU’s fastest athletes in space. They’re going to run a high volume of plays at a high pace in hopes of wearing out defenders and creating favorable matchups against base coverages.
That shift should immediately take advantage of TCU’s impressive collection of skill players. The new offense should make life easier for a long beleaguered group of quarterbacks and offensive linemen too. At SMU, Dykes and Riley orchestrated the №18 offense in the country in 2021 in SP+, with a bunch of transfer portal acquisitions and recruits that other Texas programs had passed over. The ceiling at TCU, in theory, should be higher.
The story of the offseason for TCU has been the quarterback battle between Duggan and Chandler Morris.
Duggan’s three years as TCU’s starting quarterback have been whiplash-inducing. He’s delivered great performances in some big games. He’s extremely dangerous as a runner, and he has flashed potential as a passer when the scheme has played to his strengths.
Yet he has also consistently struggled with touch and ball placement. The play calling did him no favors, but defenses clearly didn’t fear him as a passer. His running style also opens him up to injuries that have limited his availability and effectiveness at times over his career.
Enter Morris, the transfer from Oklahoma. After spending much of the 2021 season behind Duggan and (somehow) Matthew Downing on the depth chart, Morris dazzled in his first collegiate start against Baylor. He had 531 total yards and 3 total touchdowns and a 94.2 QBR against the №13 defense nationally in SP+. His accuracy elevated the TCU passing game, and his ability to escape pressure and improvise extended multiple drives when plays broke down.
Then the next week on the road against Oklahoma State, he came crashing back to earth. Morris went 11-of-20 for 103 yards passing against the Cowboys before exiting the game with an injury. He didn’t take another snap the rest of the season. Just like Duggan, injuries could be an ongoing concern for Morris. His ability to extend plays can also expose him to a lot of hits, which can add up over time for a smaller quarterback.
So who’s the answer at quarterback? Dykes was noncommittal on a starter for as long as possible during the offseason, splitting first-team reps between the two in spring practices and even into preseason camp and even listing them as co-starters on the depth chart for the season opener.
However, it’s worth noting that Morris began taking more of the first-team snaps after the first week of camp. Meanwhile, Duggan ran with the second-team offense and occasionally worked in a two-quarterback personnel package with redshirt freshman Sam Jackson, a former blue-chip recruit with jaw-dropping speed and arm strength (and an impressive collection of Louis Vuitton bags, apparently). Riley seems intent on getting Jackson on the field however possible. For an offense that relies so heavily on the quarterback’s accuracy and less on the quarterback run game, Morris is simply the best fit for what the Frogs need from their starter.
Whether it’s been Tanner Mordecai, Shane Buechele, Davis Webb, or Jared Goff, Dykes has a long history of elevating the play of his quarterbacks, many of them transfers. If Morris can stay healthy and consistently execute, he can join that list. And from a depth perspective, there are worse situations to be in than having Duggan and Jackson waiting on the sideline.
Morris and the other quarterbacks are sure to benefit from a receiver group that is possibly the most exciting position for TCU this season.
We know what the Frogs have in Johnston, an All-Big 12 receiver who’s currently projected to be an early-round NFL draft pick in 2023. And he still has untapped potential. Johnston has primarily been typecast as a jump ball threat to this point in his career. Under Dykes, his role is going to expand and give him opportunities to actually turn potential into production, which is exactly what Johnston wants.
“Upside doesn’t mean anything if you don’t do anything with it,” Johnston told 247Sports’ Chris Hummer over the summer. “I kind of take that personally. I’ve got to make that more clear. I don’t want people to say I’ve got good upside. I want people to say I’ve capitalized on everything I do.”
Johnston switches from Z receiver to X this year. In that new role, he’ll be targeted on more posts and deep crossing patterns that will get him the ball in stride in the middle of the field. That’s a terrifying prospect for opposing defenses that largely haven’t had to worry about trying to cover or tackle him in space. In the rare instances when a corner or safety can stay with Johnston, his ball skills make throwing him the ball a pretty safe bet anyway.
He’s not the only veteran who should benefit from a more wide-open passing attack.
Smaller, quick receivers like Taye Barber, Blair Conwright, Derius Davis and Gunnar Henderson are now going to get schemed open with play calls designed to get them the ball as they’re heading toward open grass.
Meanwhile, bigger receivers like Savion Williams (listed at 6-foot-5, 215 pounds) and Quincy Brown (6-foot-4, 210) should get more opportunities besides fades, particularly as defenses try to account for Johnston. Williams in particular has drawn praise from Dykes, earning the starting spot at Z receiver on the depth chart.
“I think Savion Williams has really done a fantastic job,” Dykes told the media during camp. “He’s playing like we hoped he would … I think [he’s] playing with a lot of confidence. I think the quarterbacks are really starting to get confidence in him as well.”
Freshmen 4-star recruits Jordan Hudson and DJ Allen are both likely to get reps early. Both have blazing speed and a talent for making defenders miss. Dykes singled out Hudson specifically as a freshman who will play significant snaps on offense and possibly as a returner.
We haven’t even mentioned the tight ends. After years of the tight ends primarily being used in max protect situations (as well as the weekly obligatory Carter Ware target), that position’s role in the offense should grow significantly too. Geor’Quarius Spivey — listed as the starter at Y receiver — and Jared Wiley — listed as the starting tight end—will provide tall targets in the middle of the field and in the red zone who can bail out the quarterback.
The Frogs should have no shortage of potential pass catchers in an offense that is suddenly going to need a lot of them. They aren’t going to abandon the ground game though, especially since running back is another position of strength, even after the transfer of Evans to Ole Miss.
Evans was the most heralded player for TCU in 2021, but there wasn’t that much of a drop-off from him to Kendre Miller. Miller actually led the FBS in yards per carry (7.5), led TCU in rushing touchdowns (7), and he was more available than Evans in 2021, appearing in 10 games to Evans’ six. Much of his production came in bursts when Evans was unavailable due to injury or because the Frogs were trying to keep Evans fresh. Now working as the Frogs’ true feature back for the first time, Miller could be positioned for a significant increase in production, both as a runner and a pass catcher.
He’s joined by Louisiana transfer Emani Bailey, who led the Ragin’ Cajuns in yards per carry (6.3) last year, senior Emari Demercado, Florida State transfer Corey Wren, former quarterback Trent Battle, and speedy freshman Major Everheart–an early contender for the Big 12 all-name team. While Miller and Bailey figure to get the most reps, TCU intends to use that whole rotation. The group should benefit from boxes that are less crowded as defenses try to cover all of TCU’s receiving options. Riley is likely to incorporate them into the passing game as well, beyond just checkdowns. (Everyone say it with me: angle routes and wheel routes.)
That group of backs will be working behind an offensive line that averaged 3.2 line yards (i.e., rushing yards credited primarily to the blocking) per carry in 2021. Pass protection is where the line has been a weakness for much of the last few years, and it will probably dictate the team’s offensive limits in 2022. Whether it was Duggan or Morris, the quarterback was routinely running for his life last year. The Frogs ranked №73 nationally in sacks allowed per game last season (2.33), and that was with multiple mobile quarterbacks.
However, Dykes and new offensive line coach A.J. Ricker have been praising the group’s development since arriving in Fort Worth. They do have some proven pieces, including Steve Avila and SMU transfer Alan Ali. Both seniors have the ability to play center or guard. If Wes Harris can stay healthy enough to consistently start at the other guard spot, the interior of the Frogs’ offensive line begins to look formidable.
Tackle may be another story. Right tackle Andrew Coker has 20 career starts, including every game last season, so experience isn’t an issue. Performance might be. With Obinna Eze anchoring the left side of the line in 2021, defenses sought to exploit Coker instead, and he frequently got beat. At left tackle, Brandon Coleman is poised to take over for Eze, but he has just eight career starts, all at guard. They both have to take major strides under Ricker for the offense to capitalize on its talent at other positions.
And yet, as with every other position on offense, the line should reap the rewards of play-calling designed to make life easier for them. They won’t have to stand up in pass protection for as long on average as TCU swaps those long-developing downfield pass plays for quicker short and intermediate routes, and the tempo of the offense should tire opposing defensive linemen and make for easier matchups.
Committing to the Air Raid isn’t some miracle cure. The system has its disadvantages–including the potential for quick three-and-outs and gassing your own defense–and Big 12 opponents see variations of it all the time, so they’ll be prepared to defend it. The real value of the shift has less to do with the specific scheme solution and more to do with the fact that there will be consensus on what the solution is. Across the board, players are going to benefit from a coaching staff that agrees on the best ways to use them, and then actually uses them in those ways.
Defense: Far From Home
When the TCU defense takes the field this season, it’s going to look wildly unfamiliar.
After making their name with a 4–2–5 alignment, the Frogs will be using a 3–3–5 base personnel package. And after more than 20 years of Patterson roaming the sidelines, Joe Gillespie will be the man calling the plays.
While TCU may feel homesick for the 4–2–5, there are some common threads between the two defenses. Both Patterson’s and Gillespie’s schemes attempt to solve the same problem: defending against the spacing and speed of modern passing offenses without sacrificing the ability to stop the run. They’re very similar personnel-wise in the secondary with five defensive backs in their base package–two corners and three safeties–and those defensive back positions have a lot of similarities in roles.
The front six is where TCU is making the biggest changes, and those changes go beyond simply swapping a defensive lineman for another linebacker.
Up front, Patterson traditionally recruited quicker, leaner linemen who could shoot through gaps to create negative plays. Sometimes he’d ask his edge defenders to even drop back in coverage while he brought pressure from elsewhere. Meanwhile, both linebackers did a little of everything. They had to make run fits, cover running backs, tight ends and receivers, bring pressure on blitzes, and sometimes spy the quarterback. The goal was to get offenses into an unfavorable down-and-distance and force three-and-outs. That aggressiveness meant TCU was bound to give up a couple big plays per game when defenders over-pursued, but it also meant Patterson’s defenses were extremely efficient on a per-play basis.
Gillespie’s defense takes a different approach, called “spill and kill.” His ideal front has three bigger, space-eating lineman who can occupy multiple blockers. Rather than using team speed to fire through gaps to make tackles for loss, the linemen try to keep running lanes from ever forming, forcing ball carriers to “spill” outside into the waiting arms of a defensive back or a linebacker, who can come up to make the “kill.” That philosophy–and the 3–3–5 alignment in general–have become very popular in the Big 12 and can be very effective. While the defense will probably allow more yards on a per-play basis, it will be less likely to give up explosive plays because it will be keeping the offense in front of it.
That’s a major philosophical shift that TCU players have to adapt to though, and the Frogs don’t have the personnel for the scheme yet. Those lighter linemen Patterson spent years recruiting aren’t ideally suited for a three-down front, and the Frogs’ depth at linebacker is going to be tested as more of them will need to see the field regularly. It will probably be a rough transition early on.
The good news for Gillespie is he doesn’t have to follow up one of Patterson’s vintage defenses. No matter how you look at it, TCU was atrocious on defense in 2021. The Frogs were №109 in defensive SP+. They were №116 nationally in EPA (estimated points added) per play, №123 in EPA per rush and №95 in EPA per pass, per CFB Graphs.
That means that even if the Frogs are still bad on defense in 2022, as long as they’re not a bottom 30 unit in FBS, it’ll be an improvement.
The journey toward that improvement started in the offseason as TCU sought to correct the roster deficiencies along the line and at linebacker.
Up front, TCU landed 325-pound nose tackle Damonic Williams during the early signing period and picked up 320-pound junior college transfer Doug Blue-Eli to join 320-pound senior Soni Misi at the position. Williams was an early enrollee, so he got to go through all of spring practice and get a full offseason in the strength and conditioning program. Now he’s secured the starting job as a true freshman and will be the anchor for the Frogs’ run defense. Developing depth behind him will be crucial in order to avoid the unit falling apart whenever he needs to come off the field.
The Frogs lost two of their top edge defenders from the past two seasons with Ochaun Mathis and Khari Coleman transferring to Nebraska and Ole Miss, respectively. Terrell Cooper and Dylan Horton are expected to occupy the starting end positions in their stead and will be relied upon to set the edge.
A dominant pass rushing defensive end is less of a necessity in the 3–3–5 than in the 4–2–5 since the linebackers share more of the edge rushing duties, but the Frogs will still need to find a way to generate some pressure with their defensive front. TCU ranked №120 in the country in sacks per game in 2021 with 1.25. Horton led the team with just 4. That might be the area of greatest concern for the Frogs’ defense in 2022. They desperately need Horton to generate more pressures, and they will need to cobble together some more sacks from transfers like Lwal Uguak and Caleb Fox or young players like Micheal Ibukun-Okeyode and Paul Oyewale.
At linebacker, the Frogs’ starting lineup is set with senior Dee Winters (sam), junior Jamoi Hodge (mike), and Navy transfer Johnny Hodges (will). After that, the rotation is more fluid. Senior Wyatt Harris has 11 career starts. Then it’s quite a few options without many career snaps, including Marcel Brooks–who will miss the start of the season due to a rib injury–Shadrach Banks, Thomas Armstrong and Texas transfer Terrence Cooks Jr.
TCU will need more reliable contributors from that position group this season, but those players won’t be asked to do as much as in years past.
“I’m more free to make plays, so I’m excited for that,” Winters said of the new scheme at Big 12 media days, per 247Sports’ Jeremy Clark. “There’s also less responsibility for me, and it takes the stress off of me.”
Winters said one of the biggest issues for TCU last season was “players trying to do other players’ jobs.” The veterans didn’t trust the younger players to execute all the responsibilities in Patterson’s defense, so they tried–and failed–to execute other players’ jobs as well as their own.
In the new scheme, everyone will have more focused roles that allow them to play faster. Winters will have fewer responsibilities and reads in coverage. Hodges can crash downhill quickly in the run game, and Hodge can get after the quarterback. Players like Brooks and Banks, wildly athletic players who had trouble breaking into the rotation previously, should also benefit from that simplicity.
The front six may be in the midst of a transition, but the secondary should be a strength for the Frogs in 2022.
Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson is a two-time all-Big 12 selection at cornerback. He showed under Patterson that he could handle being left in single coverage against the opponent’s best receiver, and he probably will have a help defender over the top more often under Gillespie.
Unrelated: the vibes are impeccable.
Immaculate. Absolutely no notes.
There’s suddenly significant depth at the position behind Hodges-Tomlinson as well. Junior Kee’yon Stewart is listed as a co-starter with Hodges-Tomlinson, and is a dependable option with a ton of career snaps. Injuries kept him out of the first eight games in 2021, but when he returned to the field, he elevated the Frogs’ pass defense significantly.
ULM transfer Josh Newton has secured the other starting corner spot. Newton had 2 interceptions and 8 passes defended for the Warhawks in 2021.
Newton had to have impressed this offseason if he won a starting job over senior Noah Daniels. Daniels graded out as the top corner in the Big 12 in press coverage over the last three seasons, according to Pro Football Focus. Daniels’ grade came in a smaller number of snaps than many other defensive backs, but when he’s on the field, the 6-foot, 210-pound corner has the length, speed and ball skills to neutralize receivers.
Add Missouri transfer Ish Burdine, as well as promising freshmen Kyron Chambers and Ronald Lewis, and TCU may have a deep, quality rotation.
The starting safety group has seemed to be set since the start of camp. The position group has three starters, which will feel very familiar for TCU after so many years of the 4–2–5, but as Gillespie outlined during camp, the roles and nomenclature are slightly different.
Colorado transfer Mark Perry came to TCU and immediately slid into the lineup at strong safety. He’ll play most of his snaps toward the boundary, meaning the side of the formation closest to the sideline where there are usually fewer potential pass catchers. He’ll play a mix of man and zone coverage, and he’ll be the safety most commonly asked to rotate down and make tackles in the run game. This role is pretty analogous to what the strong safeties–players like Sam Carter, Denzel Johnson, and Innis Gaines–did under Patterson.
Bud Clark is back after missing the final seven games of 2021 due to injury and has taken control of the free safety position. The free safety in Gillespie’s scheme is typically aligned to the field side, meaning the side of the formation with the most potential receivers. He has to cover more space than anyone else on the field. Again, it’s a role that’s similar to how free safeties were used in Patterson’s scheme, where players like Derrick Kindred and Trevon Moehrig made a name for themselves.
Millard Bradford–the artist formerly known as “Nook”–is playing nickel safety, which Gillespie described as the “most cerebral” position in the scheme because of the number of responsibilities he’s asked to perform and the versatility he has to have. By that criteria, Bradford does seem like the best fit on the roster given his experience playing multiple safety positions in Patterson’s defense. While it’s different in name than the weak safety position where players like Ar’Darius Washington and Chris Hackett excelled in past TCU defenses, the flexibility and ball skills required are very similar.
If that group can stay healthy, that’s a solid lineup. If Clark misses significant time again or if Perry isn’t the reliable veteran starter the Frogs thought they were getting, the Frogs’ depth will be tested as players like Abe Camara (no career starts), D’Arco Perkins-McAllister (no career starts) and Chace Biddle (a true freshman) get pushed into the fray.
Gillespie’s scheme will take some time to get used to. There will be growing pains and glitches as the Frogs find their bearings. Yet with their talent and a system designed to make life simpler for defenders, they should reasonably expect not to be among the worst defenses in the country. That’s a low standard to clear, but it will still be an upgrade.
Special Teams: Days of Future Past
The Frogs were perfectly average on special teams in 2021, finishing №63 out of 130 FBS teams in special teams SP+, and they return all the key pieces from that unit this season.
Kicker Griffin Kell was 14-of-18 on field goals, including 4-for-4 on kicks of 40 yards or longer, and made all 42 of his extra point attempts. Punter Jordy Sandy averaged a career-high 43.3 yards per punt, and opponents only had 10 total punt return yards against him for the whole season. Against TCU, teams’ average starting field position was their own 28.7-yard line, per CFB Graphs, which ranked №58 nationally.
In the return game, Davis gave them a solid option, averaging 29.6 yards per kick return in 2021 and taking the opening kick against West Virginia back for a touchdown. He also has 3 career punt return touchdowns. If Davis’ role is going to grow on offense and the Frogs want to protect him from too many hits, they have other interesting options for returns as well, including Everheart and Hudson.
What could elevate the unit this season is the addition of a dedicated special teams coordinator in Mark Tommerdahl. It’s actually a throwback hire since Tommerdahl served in the same position for the Frogs under Dennis Franchione from 1998–2000. He comes from Texas Tech, which ranked №5 in the country in special teams SP+ in 2021. Under Tommerdahl, Red Raiders kicker Jonathan Garibay was 15-of-16 on field goals, including a mind-bending 62-yard game-winner against Iowa State, and Austin McNamara averaged a Big 12-record 48.2 yards per punt.
Tommerdahl doesn’t have to get Sandy and Kell to produce at that level, but if he can raise their game enough to tip a couple games a year in TCU’s favor, it’ll be worth the investment in a full-time special teams coach.
Schedule: The Legend of the Ten Straight Games
The 2022 slate for TCU divides pretty neatly into three sprints:
Sprint 1
- at Colorado, Sept. 2 (Friday)
- vs. Tarleton State, Sept. 10
- at SMU, Sept. 24
Sprint 2
- vs. Oklahoma, Oct. 1
- at Kansas, Oct. 8
- vs. Oklahoma State, Oct. 15
- vs. Kansas State, Oct. 22
Sprint 3
- at West Virginia, Oct. 29
- vs. Texas Tech, Nov. 5
- at Texas, Nov. 12
- at Baylor, Nov. 19
- vs. Iowa State, Nov. 26
Two road games in non-conference play isn’t ideal, but the Frogs get the benefit of playing a Colorado team that opens the season ranked №92 nationally in SP+ and №78 in returning production, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
Then after a home date with Tarleton State, the Frogs get their only bye week of the year before playing 10 games in a row.
The first game after the open date is a road trip to play an SMU team looking to make a statement against its former head coach. Dykes helped rekindle the excitement around the Battle for the Iron Skillet after years of TCU dominating the rivalry. Now he’s added more fuel to that fire by switching sides.
The Mustangs will be supremely motivated, and their offense should still be one to reckon with under new head coach Rhett Lashlee. Fortunately for the Frogs, the Mustangs lost three of their top four pass catchers from last season and their second-leading rusher, Ulysses Bentley, who shredded TCU in last year’s matchup.
Then TCU’s opening stretch of Big 12 play will probably offer a clear assessment of where expectations should be in 2022.
The Frogs start conference play at home against Oklahoma. The Sooners will also be trying to figure out who they are in their first year under a new head coach in Brent Venables, but they’re still among the most talented teams in the league. They get to be assumed as conference title contenders until they show otherwise. Then comes a road trip to face a Kansas team that has had a knack for troubling TCU since the Frogs joined the league. After that, it’s back-to-back home games against Big 12 title game hopefuls with veteran quarterbacks and scary pass rushers in Oklahoma State and Kansas State.
If the Frogs can go 2–2 or better during that four-game sprint, that’s a major success. That would likely put them on track for a spot in the top half of the Big 12 standings at the end of the year. A 1–3 mark or worse could mean the back half of the season becomes simply about trying to claw toward bowl eligibility.
TCU plays three of its final five games on the road, with a trip to West Virginia–where the Frogs haven’t won since 2014–and back-to-back games at Texas and Baylor. The Longhorns might be poised to make a significant leap on offense this year with quarterback Quinn Ewers if their offensive line can hold up. The Bears are the defending conference champions. Sandwiched among those games are home dates with Texas Tech, also in its first year under a new head coach in Joey McGuire, and Iowa State, which may be in a reset year after some significant roster turnover. While playing three in-state rivals in four weeks will be tough, there are winnable games in that stretch where TCU can show progress in year one under Dykes.
However, Dykes will need to buck his recent trend as a head coach of following up promising starts with disappointing finishes. Over the last three seasons, SMU was 19–0 before Oct. 24 and 6–10 after. His Mustang teams also struggled against their top competition, going a combined 4–8 against Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, and Memphis and 0–8 overall against opponents who finished with 10 wins or more.
If the Frogs want to feel good about their direction under Dykes, he’ll need to buck the “September Sonny” stereotype, and he’ll have to show some life against the top teams in the Big 12.
Into the Sonny-Verse
There is an energy around the TCU program that has been absent for a while. The Frogs haven’t gone through the honeymoon phase with a new coach in more than 20 years. Everything feels new and exciting.
That excitement could well be warranted.
Dykes produced results at SMU that were unprecedented in the post-death penalty era. He is a respected offensive mind who has proven capable of putting his players — particularly quarterbacks — in positions to succeed. He has forged strong connections with high school coaches in Texas and understands the importance of recruiting the state in general and the metroplex specifically.
Donati and TCU are betting that with Power 5 resources, Dykes can take all the things he did in Dallas and improve on them in Fort Worth.
It’ll be a tougher assignment in the Big 12 though. Texas and Oklahoma, for however much longer they remain in the league, continue to hold an edge in overall talent over the rest of the conference. Baylor has a winning blueprint and a fresh conference title under Dave Aranda. Oklahoma State and Iowa State have both made the Big 12 title game more recently than the Frogs. And next year, a slew of Group of 5 darlings will be joining the league: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF.
Against that competition, if TCU goes through late-season swoons like SMU did under Dykes, or if the new defense flounders, or if the program can’t attract those lauded recruits and transfers, then new might only be different, not better.
Working in Dykes’ favor is that the last few years for TCU have been so disappointing that even mild improvements will feel like major gains. The last time the Frogs won seven games in a season, they needed an overtime win against a bad Cal team in the Cheez-It Bowl to reach that mark. Outside of the three top-10 finishes in 2014, 2015, and 2017, TCU has averaged 5.7 wins a year since joining the Big 12.
As long as the Frogs show those improvements, Dykes will get time to try to build something. It probably won’t ever be the machine Patterson had engineered at his peak, but it could be more consistent, and better built for the future.
