Three Reasons Hollywood’s Franchise Mania Might (Eventually) Pass

Studios are predictable. Audiences are not.

We’ve all watched as franchise films–Hollywood’s bread and butter for decades–have, in recent years, somehow further imposed themselves on the moviegoing experience–crowding studio slates and fueling much of what qualifies as news in the film media. The rise of the many-picture series, and the problems this poses, have been discussed repeatedly here, and were also recently the subject of a gloomy, insightful piece by Mark Harris at Grantland. But while we grapple with the disadvantages of Hollywood’s new mania, we should also avoid the mistake of confusing Hollywood’s intentions for its actual future. For while we’ll certainly be under the grip of the franchise film for some time, there are reasons to believe that the franchise obsession will diminish. At core, these reasons all stem from a single fact: while studio product may be predictable, audiences are not.

1. Audiences Fatigue

As discussed here previously, the appeal of The Avengers, and the run of Marvel films leading up to it, was due partially to the novelty of a cinematic world unfolding across multiple films. All the post-credit sequences and winks at the larger narrative culminated in The Avengers in a way that was fresh (even if the movie itself was nothing special). But that was two years ago, and now every studio is taking the epic franchise to the extreme–Marvel, DC, Universal Horror (though of course actually more action than horror), and Arthurian legends all loom in the near future. Some of these will certainly succeed–but it isn’t unreasonable, either, to expect audience interest in cross-picture cinematic worlds, and endlessly progressing series, to decline. The novelty has worn off, and the natural reaction to a ceaseless glut of something can often be to seek something else–or at least to be pickier. Public tastes change, and that change is partially driven by the failings of the preceding media environment. We can hope that the monotonous rise of franchises is just this kind of failing.

2. Franchises Are Not As Reliable as they Appear

The attraction of branded franchises for studios is clear: they offer reliable, safe and continuous sources of revenue. Or at least they appear to. Any big movie can underperform at the box office–but it looks a lot better for the studio executive in charge when the unfortunate greenlight can be defended as a seemingly sure bet on a franchise. This appearance of reliability, and its function in corporate studio culture, is a major driver of franchise filmmaking. More is required, though, to succeed at the box office than known IP or an epic premise. Some of those playing it safe will wind up with major disappointments on their hands. What works for Marvel can’t work equally well for everyone. If a couple of these big franchise plans falter, the opportunity may arise for other options.

3. Trends Subside

Hollywood’s love for franchises will not change in the immediate future. Franchise filmmaking, in a general sense, is certainly with us for the long term. This does not mean, however, that we must permanently endure the all-encompassing, bloated franchise system that characterizes studio film slates today. Franchise mania is, ultimately, a corporate trend–and trends are not eternal. We have only to survey the history of American filmmaking to note their continued rise and fall, and to witness abrupt shifts in film content spurred by cultural, technological, and economic changes. Studios are copycats–they’ll copy anything that seems to work, whether it fits their current model or not. It only takes a surprise success by a one-off film to turn heads and spur new, different content. As the film industry changes economically and technologically–as the home video sector continues shifting drastically toward new media, as release windows continue to narrow, as profits increasingly derive from global markets– profitable new models will arise, and the studios will redirect some of their resources toward chasing them.