It’s Finally Here
In soccer, a team is only as good as their worst player. In a game where a series of intricate movement, passing, and finding open spots on the pitch, one errant pass or one mishandle can destroy the continuity of an offense, rendering that particular advance ineffective. All it takes is one player. You can have the best player in the world on your team, but the weak link in the fencing can cause the whole foundation to collapse. Look at Argentina every World Cup.
In basketball, the opposite is mostly true. The team with the best player on the floor will typically win. We can argue semantics about whether or not this is true in the NBA, but I suppose it boils down to where you land in the LeBron v. KD debate. Overall, though, anyone who has ever played basketball — whether it is pick-up basketball at a local YMCA or competitive basketball at a reasonably high level — understand that when the game is on the line, a certain guy gets the ball, and everyone else just tries to stay out of their way.
What makes the NCAA Tournament special is that there seems to exist a blending of these two paradigms. As evidenced by the fact that just seven people with who are currently employed with collegiate coaching jobs have actually won national titles — and they all coach at highly prestigious basketball universities — the cream, as they say, consistently rises to the top during the NCAA Tournament.
That said, in a bracket format in which there are 9.2 quintillion different outcomes, there are bound to be anomalies. Teams like Yale beat Baylor; Mercer’s upset Duke’s; Northern Iowa’s beat Kansas. If those teams played 10 times, the bigger, stronger, faster, more athletic team would probably win a strong majority of them. But they don’t play ten times. They play once.
And, sure, the teams we expect to be there in the Final Four — teams like Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, et. al — are typically there at the end, which makes for better basketball, but leading up to the very predictable final weekend is an unpredictable few rounds of amater basketball.
The brackets were announced Sunday night and, for the most part, everyone is happy (I mean, if you live anywhere that’s not Indiana or TCU). There were no major snubs. For this, I’m gonna stay away from predictions — I’ll do that later in the week — but really focus on each individual region.
I’ll break it down this way:
Teams who have a shot at Minneapolis: Minneapolis, of course, is the site of this year’s Final Four. In this section, I’ll shout out some teams that have a realistic shot of coming out of the region.
Possible bracket buster: This is not a collection of upset picks. They aren’t predictions. They’re games or teams where there is an outside shot that the whole house of cards could come crashing.
Best storyline: What is the most compelling story or stories coming out of this region?
Best “What If” game: Like the bracket buster, not a prediction. It’s simply “these two teams playing would be interesting/fun/odd.”
I might even throw some curveballs in there, like the 13-seed shooting 72% from three- point land and scoring the upset.
East Region (Washington D.C.)
Who has a shot at Minneapolis?: Duke and Michigan State. For all of Tom Izzo’s complaints that his Spartans got the hose by being placed into the same bracket as the number one overall seed, the region looks slimmer than the others for teams with an actual shot.
Possible bracket buster: While I think chalk at the top probably wins out in the East, here’s an interesting scenario: What happens if UCF takes advantage of their length inside (where Duke does the bulk of their scoring) and forces a poor shooting Blue Devils team to have to come from behind on the back of the worst part of their game?
Thing that will definitely happen: Zion Williamson will try to dunk on 7’6 Tacko Fall, if those two teams play. The internet will explode if it happens and I’m here for it.
Best storyline: Belmont. Teams from the play-in games have gone on to win their next game in each year of the play-in games existence.
Best “What If” game: It’s hard to not go after the easy game of Duke-Michigan State, which features two of the best coaches of all-time. If LSU puts it together and plays the way they did in mid-to-late January, it’d be fun to watch them make a splash in the Elite Eight, but I just don’t see that happening.
South Region (Louisville):
Who has a shot at Minneapolis?: This is another region where it seems a little top heavy, but there’s a team lurking in the middle of the field that can make a run with the right kind of road. Virginia is the number one seed and should be a lock for the regional final, but Tennessee is the number two and they’re capable of beating any team in the country. Lurking is Cincinnati, who got robbed by being seeded at 7th. That’s incentive. They could beat anyone in the South.
Take the under: The South is hosting the eight slowest paced teams in the country. Don’t expect high-flying, high-scoring games. Expect plodding paces and good defense.
Possible bracket buster: While minor, UC-Irvine could rattle the South by knocking off Kansas State (#4) in round one. Again, Cincy over Tennessee in round two wouldn’t shock anyone, but it would certainly get a few pools tossed into the trash.
Best storyline: Unless I’m missing one, I feel like the narrative of Tony Bennett and his shortcoming is one they’ll hammer until about ten minutes left in the first half against Gardner-Webb in the 1 v. 16 game. Then there’s Mick Cronin and Bennett trying to reach their first Final Four while Rick Barnes tries to get back for his first since 2003.
Best “What If?” game: Let’s say UC-Irvine upsets Kansas State. They move onto the winner of Wisconsin/Oregon, two teams that the Anteaters can also stick with. What about a methodically-paced Virginia-Irvine game in Louisville? How about that pressure for Tony Bennett?
Midwest (Kansas City)
Who has a shot at Minneapolis?: North Carolina and Kentucky, blue-blood stalwarts of the NCAA, of course. Houston is the #3 seed and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Cougars make a very legitimate run toward Prince’s hometown. It’d be foolish to not include Bill Self’s Kansas team here. I don’t know if they have it this year, but I wouldn’t be able to live it down if I didn’t at least mention them.
Possible bracket buster: It would be a second weekend upset, but Auburn over North Carolina could really mess things up. Iowa State over Houston in round two would shake up some brackets.
Best storyline: Wofford, a Southern Conference darling, getting a 7-seed. We see teams like the Terriers each year gain a little buzz only to be placed as a 12-seed. Wofford should be favored in round one, could very well beat Seton Hall, and play (checks bracket), ugh, Kentucky.
Best “What If?” game: Houston-North Carolina would be a fun contrast in styles, but a revisit of the 2017 UNC-Kentucky elite eight game would have all of Lexington in revenge mode.
But what about…: Kansas could make it to the second weekend. Where is that being played? About 45 minutes from Lawrence, KS. The Jayhawk faithful travel as well as anyone in the country. Could we be looking at a home game for Kansas, a #4 seed, in the Sweet 16?
West (Anaheim)
Who has a shot at Minneapolis?: Everyone, it seems. Well, no. But the West is the deepest region and it’s not even close. There are six teams — Gonzaga, Michigan, Texas Tech, Florida State, Nevada, and Buffalo — that can represent the West in Minneapolis.
Possible bracket buster: In a bracket where I think there are legitimately 10 teams that could be playing in the second weekend, breaking a bracket is tough, but the biggest disruption would occur if the Syracuse/Baylor winner beat Gonzaga in round two.
Don’t be tempted by: Marquette. Jordan Howard is an amazing scorer and the Marquette-Murray State showdown between him and Ja Morant will be must watch TV. However, only one of these teams can move on. The Big East wasn’t very good — even at the top — this year and I’d be surprised if any went beyond the first weekend.
Best storyline: The depth of the West region. Besides the six teams mentioned above, there are five more teams that can cause at least a disruption to the chalk advancing: Marquette (5), Syracuse (8), Baylor (9), Florida (10), and Murray State (12).
Best “What If?” game: I’ve been a fan of Chris Beard’s Texas Tech team all season. I’d love to see the way that defense matches up with Gonzaga.
Coming soon: The picks for the weekend.
