The Donald Has Nothing to Fear, Not Even His Own Big Mouth!
Not even Donald Trump’s big mouth can stop Donald Trump’s march to the GOP nomination.
I’ve been running the delegate math, employing Trump’s margin of victories in past contests to project future performance. Unless he is stopped in two of the biggest winner-take-all states-Ohio, Florida, and/or New Jersey, he will March into the convention with the nomination sewed up tight.
Trump lost Texas in part because of his bad-mouthing of Mexicans. Twenty-eight percent of the border state’s population is Hispanic. Trump faces the same demographic in California and New Mexico. But poor showings in these state primaries will hardly derail his thundering freight train,
Trump’s average share of the popular vote in primaries so far is 36%. Huis share of the delegates is 46%. I am assuming that he continues to pile up delegates in states where delegates are awarded proportionately at that 46% rate. This is fuzzy math. In some of those states, a candidate must win a certain share of the popular vote before becoming eligible for delegates. So if a Ted Cruz or a Marco Rubio comes up short, more delegates could go to Trump.
The Trump opponents should be concentrating their big guns on New Jersey, where Governor Chris Christe is falling in the popularity polls. In fact, New Jersey newspapers have called for his resignation. Christe is Trump’s most celebrated endorser. Ohio, where John Kasich is a popular son, should also be a focus of the big guns.
For years, union members who supposedly are Democrats, have been crossing over to vote for the GOP. Many of them constitute the angry white males voting for Trump. If the party wants to defeat Trump, it’s going to have to drop some of its anti-union rampages. The party also will have to endorse a national infrastructure renewal that will put these guys to work. In short, the GOP will have to become more moderate. This isn’t going to happen. That’s why I think that Trump has the nomination in the bag.