My 2017 Predictions One Year Later: How Did I Do?
A post-mortem on my attempt at clairvoyance.
13 months ago, I started writing on Medium. I kicked off with an aggressive post: “The Experts Are All Wrong, Let’s See If I Can Do Better: 5 Bold Predictions for 2017”.
After Brexit and Trump, two “statistically improbable” events, global faith in experts was at an all time low. Nate Silver was hiding. The talking heads of CNN tried to make sense of a world they didn’t acknowledge, let alone understand.
As a data analyst, seeing the utter failure of polling did not shake my faith. Quite the opposite; I suddenly felt the truth of one of Steve Jobs most oddly profound quotes:
“Everything around you that you call life was made up by people that were no smarter than you.”
I suddenly realized: my youth and inexperience don’t disbar me from participating in the Great Conversation. Writing is about more than wrong and right, expert and novice, pro and amateur.
It’s about perspective.
And boy do I have some strange perspectives. I think that Christmas is a coping mechanism for mental illness. I get obsessed with strange things like moving sidewalks. I unearth obscure Karl Marx passages on artificial intelligence.
That being said, to make predictions is to take a bold gamble with the world, and sometimes you need to pay the house. I’ve always held in disdain those timid souls who never take responsibility for their predictions, like mild-mannered weathermen shamefully hiding their wet hair.
I refuse to be considered in such company. Good, bad, and ugly: let’s dive into the facts and review the predictions I made in February of 2017 with the beautiful gift of hindsight.
1. America will take first steps toward a trade war with China
It’s no coincidence I’m writing this article now. March 1st, Trump announced tariffs of 25% on steel imports and 10% on aluminum imports.
Afterwards, he said “trade wars are good”. (For the record, trade wars are almost decidedly not good).
What I said in 2017:
“I believe we will not feel the full impact of this on the global economy until 2018, but I suspect the seeds will be planted in 2017.”
What I say now:
Believe it or not, I got a lot of pushback from readers at the time — people thought this was one of the more unrealistic predictions. I sure wish I was wrong.
Verdict: A+
2. Early aughts (2000’s) nostalgia finally arrives
So this is a tough one to measure, but I have one strong piece of evidence: the “Picture this: it’s ____” meme that’s been making the rounds on Twitter.
“Picture this: it’s 2008. You’re laid up in your Aeropostale graphic shirt, taking your nintendog for a walk before his agility competition. Don’t Trust Me by 3OH!3 is on the radio. Your silly bandz are ripping out arm hairs every time you move a muscle.”
I’m also gonna go ahead and say the emo nostalgia we’ve been witnessing is tied to all this (Emo Nite, etc.).
What I said in 2017:
“Even though the early aughts may have felt like a bad cultural one night stand, somehow these ridiculous trends are going to come back again”
What I say now:
While I do think millennials are decidedly nostalgic for earlier, simpler times, I don’t think that has necessarily translated into broader trends in fashion, music, etc. Better luck next year.
Verdict: C+
3. Virtual reality stagnates but doesn’t fail
Even though a staggering 50% of Americans are interested in buying a VR headset, sales have been slower than expected with only around 1 million units shipped. It’s a stark contrast to the red-hot optimism at the beginning of last year.
What I said in 2017:
“When venture capital funding for VR companies dries up in 2017–2018 because of the trough of disillusionment, the content and community will actually be better off and more sustainable long term, sparking growth with second-gen consoles in 2019.”
What I say now:
I predicted some consolidation in the marketplace and standard setting in 2017, which hasn’t quite happened yet, but I think my overall thesis was fairly accurate in regards to interest remaining high but growth stalling. Curious to see how VR fares in 2018 (although I still think AR will end up more dominant).
Verdict: A-
4. Cybersecurity issues loom large as “Internet of Things” products become mainstream
With 4,000 ransomware attacks every day, 2017 was a record year for cybersecurity incidents, including the largest release of Americans’ sensitive data in history.
What I said in 2017:
With Wikileaks and other incidents, 2016 was a monumental year for cybersecurity issues. I expect 2017 to be just as frothy, if not more. The massive success of cyberattacks in 2016 will embolden both state and non-state actors in 2017.
What I say now:
There’s no doubt that Russia and others are empowered by their previous successes, and cyberattacks were a huge threat in 2017. More importantly, “Internet of Things” attacks increased by 280% in 2017. I was right, and I’m even more scared for 2018.
Verdict: A+
5. We finally hit peak meme
Man, I don’t even know what I was saying with this one. I think I was basically just saying that memes had gotten to a point where their structure had begun to dissolve, while simultaneously this looser form gave birth to a microcosmic battlefield of culture and ideas?
What I said in 2017:
“We have reached a point where they are so widespread, acerbic, and fundamentally humans, memes cannot die any more than jokes can. The format might change, but they are now a building block of the way we communicate”
What I say now:
Yeah I mean, memes are important. They power the alt-right and other crazies. I was right, I guess, but it was such a vague point that I don’t know if I can chalk this one as a win.
Verdict: C-
Bonus 2025 Prediction: Regulation of automation
I’m still extremely bullish about this one — automation will pose such a threat to employment populist governments will legislate restrictions on it. Mark my words: in ten years, robots will be the new immigrants, politically speaking.
Overall score: B+
Not too bad, all things considered. My cultural predictions were a bit off, but my tech and political instinct was dead on.
Regardless, it was the post that got me to start writing on Medium. For the last year, it’s been one of the most fulfilling outlets I’ve had, and I’m grateful to every single one of you who has ever read a word.
I’ll end with one more prediction: in 2018, I will write better content more often. Let’s talk in a year — I sure hope this one comes true.
