Iowa Caucus predictions
With three days to go before the Iowa Caucuses, I’m predicting that Texas Senator Ted Cruz wins the Iowa Caucus with 24 percent of the vote. Donald Trump finishes a disappointing second place with 22 percent, followed by Rubio with an encouraging 19 percent, and then Carson at 8 percent, Bush 8 percent, Paul 8 percent, Huckabee 5 percent, Kasich 3 percent, Fiorina 2 percent and Rick Santorum with 1 percent.
While 22 percent is still an impressive showing for the first time candidate, Trump, his campaign’s lack of organization and experience, and the inaccuracy of 21st century polling cause a bit of a let down.
Cruz claims victory on Election Night. Rubio’s campaign is energized by the close outcome. Huckabee and Santorum drop out of the race (perhaps soon to endorse Cruz or Trump) and the Bush campaign brags about the arguable 4th place showing as indication of a comeback.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton technically wins Iowa, in a race too close to call for much of the night (though she ends up winning by two points). Clinton claims victory at the podium, with her husband Bill cheering beside her, while Senator Bernie Sanders gives a passionate speech, proud of the result, and pledging to continue on through the primaries.
Without the “W” Trump suffers his first serious blow of the primary and then proceeds to kamikaze Ted Cruz, allowing Rubio or an ascendant Bush to coalesce the party from South Carolina on.
Bernie’s Iowa showing is remarkable, but not enough to build the revolution. He wins New Hampshire comfortably, but without debate victories and notable endorsements, he is loses steam. Sanders fights on to the convention, but Clinton secures the nomination by the end of March.