Here’s my prediction:
Clinton win probability: 99% *
Margin of error: +-30 electoral votes **
Senate: 51 Democrats
In the 2012 map prediction, I relied on projecting momentum into the final day. While this election is very different, we’re in a similar situation with momentum. Today’s Dow Jones Average surged nearly 400 points on the news that the FBI was done investigating Hillary Clinton’s emails. Polls we’re already moving in her favor without that announcement. The question now is how much the momentum will continue tomorrow. The gambling odds the day before the election in 2012 showed Romney as a 5 to 1 shot. Right now Trump is at 5.5 to 1 .
Another factor this year, There’s been record early voting from Florida to Alaska. Additionally, Clinton has raised more money and has opened more field offices than Trump. Historically, high turnout favors Democrats.
In 2012 Obama beat polling forecasts by around 2%. With the current combination of momentum and turnout, we can expect at least a similar result this election. With the unusual FBI investigation that dampened Clinton’s polling numbers last week, Let’s be aggressive with this, and projecting a 3% shift.
So prediction wise, we start with a base map that’s known as Clinton’s firewall. In recent polling, or any polling this cycle, there’s nothing to indicate that this firewall will be breached.
As we did last election, we give the Democrats every battleground state where they’ve consistently lean in most polls. That turns Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada blue. Conversely, we give Republicans states where they’ve been ahead consistently even with a 3 point Democrat swing. Texas and South Carolina, while more competitive than usual, are red.
This election, there’s five and 1/2 toss ups left. This is what drops our confidence level down to 22%. Ohio has been trending blue so will pick it for the Democrats. The same goes for Nevada. Iowa is tougher. There’s two new polls one showing a 7 point Republican lead, and one showing a one point lead. But they’re both from before the announcement Sunday that ended the email investigation. Iowa reacted strongly to the Republican side a week earlier with Comey’s first announcement, so we’re predicting a strong swing back and going with a blue Iowa. Iowa’s neighbor Nebraska divides 3 of it’s electoral votes by district. In District 2, Warren Buffet has organized a get out the vote effort that may be enough to turn it blue as it did for Obama in 2008. Arizona has been polling closely, and has a particularly high Hispanic turnout so far. With the Clinton momentum going into tomorrow, it could turn blue.
We’re getting into uncharted territory here. The safe bet may be to turn everything else red, but this hasn’t been a normal election. We’ll be electing the first female president. Hopefully the magnitude of that overshadows some of the negativity we’ve had this election. With that in mind Georgia has not polled as strong Republican recently, with Clinton close in the latest polls, and with no Trump field office in Georgia, this could be a Democratic upset with Georgia blue for the first time since 1980.
And while we’re out this far on a limb, you may have noticed Alaska not shaded in the above map. While not polled much, there have been a few polls showing a Clinton lead. And with polls not closing until 11 PM EST, early projections from the east coast may amplify the Clinton momentum, and turn Alaska blue.
* I’m quoting this from the Princeton Election Consortium. Their estimate is a day old already. We’re getting more certain of a Clinton victory by the minute.
** A rough margin of error based on these vote percentages assigned to vote counts.