Battleground Breakdown: Ohio
Status: Leans Clinton
Electoral Votes: 18
Democrats: Winning Ohio could would probably put Clinton over the 300 mark in electoral votes. Like Iowa, Ohio’s another state that could come with a Democratic senate seat on Clinton’s coattails. Polls have consistently favored Clinton despite the Republican Convention being held in Cleveland. Ohio’s moderate Governor Kasich has refused to endorse Trump. Senator Rob Portman, part of the no-show crowd in the senate, has meekly endorsed Trump, which may help Clinton considering Portman’s 31% approval rating.
Republicans: Trump needs to woo Ohio to appear competitive again. The 74% of voters without college degrees could work in his favor. Trumps recent courting of black voters targets Ohio’s 13% black population. Currently he get’s 0% of the black Ohio vote , so there’s nowhere to go but up. Kasich has hinted at a possible future endorsement. That could help Trump to click with Ohio’s blue collar voters better than he did during the RNC in Cleveland.
Rolling Poll Count: Clinton +2.6%
Election Held Today: Clinton 72% chance
Prior Elections: 12,08 Dem ; 04, 00 Rep
Female: 51% (50.8 Nationwide)
Over 65: 14% (15% Nationwide)
White: 83% (62% Nationwide)
Hispanic: 3.6% (18%)
Black: 13% (13%)
Other: 2.2% (7%)
College Degree: 26% (29%)
Registered Voters D/R: 41%/42%
During close elections, Ohio is a textbook swing state. Trump faces an uphill battle here but is not too far off Clinton in the rolling poll count. A recent controversial voter purge could work in his favor. We’re due for a poll in Ohio; the last couple likely voter polls showed Clinton up 4–5%. With it’s healthy 18 electoral votes, and it’s narrow margins in polls, if there was just one battleground state, this would be it. Watch for both Clinton and Trump to spend time here in the coming months.