Hillary Clinton’s solid 260 Electoral Votes
The recent significant democratic convention bounce in the polls may or not fade over the next couple weeks. Regardless of any fade, there are 260 votes outside of the swing states that are now securely in Hillary Clinton’s camp.
Since the tie scenario last week three states have abandoned the swing state category, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
Wisconsin was already a blue state with it’s strong Democratic voting history, and Clinton ahead in the polls there prior to the Democratic Convention. It’s now a solid blue state.
New Hampshire is another historic blue state. With Clinton ahead in the popular vote, these states fall right in her lap. Bernie Sander’s neighboring state seems to have heard his call for action. Today’s poll showing Clinton ahead by 17% in New Hampshire rings out like a death knell for Trump.
We’re left now with 6 swing states. Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.
Trump must win four of these states to compete. Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio. A problem for him is that he’s tied or behind in all four of these states. Even if he somehow does that, he must also win either Iowa or Nevada. Clinton has 5 very realistic winning combinations among these 6 states. Another problem for Trump is he’s fading in the popular vote. As popularity fades away, so do swing states.
Fivethirthyeight’s NowCast (If the election were held today) has all 6 of them colored blue. That would give Hillary 347 Electoral Votes. With the daunting 260 vote base, the window is closing on the Republican’s chances.