Software engineers will be obsolete by 2060
Dan Auerbach
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People have been saying this for decades. We’ve had tools that let “anyone” build a website for two decades now — see PageMill, Dreamweaver, Frontpage back then, Wordpress, Drupal, etc now — and there’s no sign yet that they’re cutting into demand for software engineers. There’s no facts provided to support the claim that “basic high level software engineering is getting more and more accessible.” As someone who designs and implements large scale services for a living, if anything I’d say it’s becoming more complicated, not simpler.

The trend of software playing a bigger role in the creation of software has only been going on for 65 years — starting with Grace Hopper writing the first compiler in the early 1950s. Rather than reducing the demand for software engineers, automation has had just the opposite effect — it’s opened up the set of problems that can economically be solved with software, increasing demand for software engineers.

Comparisons to driving and telegraph operators break down when you consider the level of abstract reasoning skill needed to perform those two occupations.

I’m open to the idea that things will change by 2060 — in fact, I fully expect them to. This article doesn’t marshal enough facts to support the author’s thesis about one particular future.