Mainstream Media Will Commit Malpractice Tomorrow. Don’t listen; vote please.

Tomorrow, the mainstream media (read: CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, etc.), which I will refer to as “MSM” here, will commit malpractice: they will say that Hillary Clinton has won the Democratic nomination, when she has not done so. They will report this hours before California polling places close, and they will do so, at least in part, to keep Bernie voters home.

The actual facts are as follows:

  1. Superdelegates do not vote until the convention in July. The information MSM has on supers comes from polls… that’s right, POLLS. Supers are actually people who can, do, and will change their minds. It’s just a question of how many of them will change their minds between the time they were polled and the time they vote. (Even the DNC has asked MSM to stop reporting on supers, albeit way too late in the primary season to stave off the negative impact on Bernie’s campaign.)
  2. Currently, Hillary has 1,812 pledged delegates, and Bernie has 1,521, if you believe the NYT. After tomorrow, it’s likely the candidates will sit somewhere around the same spread, though it’s certainly possible it could be anything between about 200 and 400. For the sake of analysis, let’s go with a 300 spread (giving Hillary a relative gain of 9); in that case, Hillary would still be far short of securing the nomination ahead of the convention. This means it will be a “contested convention,” and Bernie has been unequivocal that he’s taking this to the convention floor.
  3. At that convention, Bernie and his team will argue forcefully to the supers that their campaign has the best chance to beat Trump, and they will have irrefutable evidence to support that argument: (a) Bernie has consistently polled way better than Hillary against Trump; (b) Bernie has massive support amongst independent voters (30% of American voters are independents), while Hillary does terribly with them; and(c) Hillary would have the lowest favorability rating of any Democratic nominee, EVER (currently sitting at -18.1% according to the RCP average), while Bernie’s is quite good (currently +10.8 according to the RCP average). Of course, the more states Bernie “wins” tomorrow, the stronger these arguments will be, particularly if one of those states in California.
  4. There are something between 712 and 714 supers (it’s murky), who will collectively be the deciding factor at the convention, and not before. It does not take a mathematician to understand that Bernie would have to carry about 70% of supers if Clinton were up by 300 in pledged. Is that likely? No. Is it possible? Of course.

So, please vote tomorrow, no matter what MSM reports.

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