Great article, but you’re over-thinking Spurs-Rockets. Kawhi Leonard will be guarding an ailing Harden. The Spurs, for all of their interior issues, were 2nd in opponent ppg and 1st in defensive rating. They were 2nd in opponent efg%. They were 5th in opponent 3 point percentage.
They are the smartest team in the league in half-court defensive rotations and strategy.
The Rockets, for all of their scoring prowess, run a rather simple high pick and roll offense.
The Spurs are going to do, albeit more successfully, what the Thunder tried at the beginning of the series. They are going to stay home on shooters and let Harden try to take Kawhi one-on-one.
On the other side, do you trust Lou Williams, Harden, Eric Gordon, and Ryan Anderson to rotate properly against the Spurs offense? You’re going to see the Spurs go more towards a passing/motion based offense ala 2012–2014.
Spurs in 5, 6 tops.