Republican Numbers Don’t Add Up
By Senator Natalie Murdock
Every ten years, the US Census takes a headcount of every community and every state across the nation.
For any statisticians or history buffs, the census results tell a fascinating story of how our nation has grown and evolved. For politicians, the results can be a reality check on the changing mood and values of their constituents.
The 2020 census results tell us a lot about North Carolina: where we’ve been, where we are, and trends that show us where we’re going.
North Carolina gained nearly one million new residents over the past decade.
With these population gains, North Carolina will also be one of six states to gain a new congressional seat, increasing our state’s influence at the national level.
If you were to gauge North Carolina’s changing demographics over the past decade based on Republican congressional and legislative maps, you’d think that our state has grown significantly whiter, older, and more rural since 2010.
If this were truly the case, it would be understandable that North Carolinians would move from having 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats in Congress to 11 Republicans and 3 Democrats under new maps.
That kind of drastic swing doesn’t add up when you look at North Carolina’s demographics.
Based on party registration alone, Republicans are third behind Democrats and Independents, with just 30 percent of the state’s 7.2 million voters identifying with the GOP. But, to be fair, North Carolina voters don’t vote straight party tickets as much as in other states.
The 2020 census tells us that North Carolina is becoming increasingly diverse — particularly among people who identify as two or more races, which has increased a staggering 245 percent since 2010.
The census also tells us that North Carolina is becoming more urban. Nearly 80 percent of North Carolina’s population growth occurred in its two largest metro areas, while over half of the state’s 100 counties lost population.
That is the story of where North Carolina’s population has been, and where we’re going: more urban and more diverse. But the reality is that our legislature and our congressional delegation don’t reflect the make-up of our state. It’s a problem that has long plagued state politics.
According to the 2020 census, North Carolina’s population is 60 percent white; 20 percent Black; 11 percent Latino; 51 percent are women.
This is in stark contrast to North Carolina’s representation in the General Assembly.
Out of 170 members elected, Democrats have a combined 73 seats — 40 are people of color (55 percent), and 31 are women (42 percent).
Republicans hold the majority in both the state House and Senate with 97 members — zero minorities, and just 14 women (14 percent).
Now, consider the new proposed legislative and congressional maps drawn by the Republican majority. It’s true that North Carolina’s constitution permits partisan advantage in drawing district maps. But it’s also true that we should expect the map drawers to at least strive to draw district maps that reflect the nature of who North Carolina is today.
While North Carolina’s diversity is increasing, Republicans are looking to decrease minority representation in the General Assembly. An analysis of Republican-drawn maps show that in the state Senate alone, Four of the 12 Black incumbents will likely lose their seats to Republicans. In the state House, five of the 24 Black incumbents will be gone in 2022.
As North Carolina becomes more progressive, more urban, and more diverse, Republicans are sticking their heads in the sand. Their maps whitewash North Carolina’s future.
The Republican drawn maps reflect the North Carolina that the GOP wants to see, not North Carolina as it truly is. Republicans want to gerrymander away our state’s growth and our identity. We can’t let them do that.
