One of the biggest indications of an advanced hitter is avoiding strikeouts and drawing walks. These two are often combined into the term “Plate Skills”. It is my hypothesis that prospects with great plate skills are most likely to succeed at the highest level. These are the foundation for every at bat. Looking at BB/K leaderboards alone and you get a lot “spray and pray” types that don’t strike out but also have low offensive ceilings due to a lack of power. That’s where SLG% comes in. Unlike .ISO, SLG% not only rewards power hitters but hitters who get a lot of hits period. I combined BB/K and .SLG into one stat that attempts to view Plate Skills specifically but also takes into account overall offensive impact.
The formula is as follows:
PlateSkills = ((BB/K*0.4)+(SLG%*1.35)*100
I’m not a statistician, I’ve taken one University Stats class. There’s a lot of issues with this stat, some baseball related and some not. I also think it mostly does what I want to do.
Some issues and notes:
- Minor league offensive environments vary greatly on the league and team. This stat is not run environment standardized. It’s best used when comparing prospects in similar offensive settings or the same league.
- It’s not a be all end all stat. Age relative to the level is not factored in, raw tools or athleticism is not factored in, defense is not factored in, and baserunning is not factored in. This stat exists to judge offense with an emphasis on Plate Skills. Spencer Horwitz grades out very well in this stat but that doesn’t make him a better prospect than Jackson Chourio who does not. This isn’t wRC+ and its definitely not WAR. There are plenty of great players who have bad BB/K ratios like Adolis Garcia or Luis Robert.
- The weightings are pretty much arbitrary on what I thought felt right. There’s nothing formulaic about this. I’m multiplying by 100 to make it easier to understand. 100+ is excellent and 75 is around average depending on the offensive environment of the level.
I’m going to go over some players in the Blue Jays system with this stat.
DSL
18, SS — Adrian Meza — 106.11
21, 1B — Daniel Perez — 96.67
17, OF — David Guzman — 95.85
17, 3B/OF — Aneudi Escanio — 95.39
17, 2B — Jarold Montealto — 77.62
17, OF — Enmanuel Bonilla — 77.52
— Adrian Meza grades out the best in PlateSkills thanks to a huge 1.63 BB/K. — The best prospect on this list is Enmanuel Bonilla who the stat isn’t a big fan of because of his healthy dose of strikeouts and little home run power at this stage of his career. He’s still above average in this stat in the DSL, I’ve only highlighted top producers here.
— David Guzman has showcased impressive plate skills in his first professional season.
FCL
19, C — Edward Duran — 124.90
17, SS — Arjun Nimmala — 113.20
18, 2B/OF — Sam Shaw — 104.06
20, OF — Victor Arias — 83.86
19, OF — Yhoangel Aponte — 76.37
18, OF — Jean Joseph — 64.51
18, C — Luis Meza — 38.62
— Arjun Nimmala posted a gargantuan 35% BB% and a very manageable strikeout rate which led to this stat really liking his small sample performance in the FCL.
— Edward Duran is at Single-A now but proved to be far too advanced of a hitter for the level.
— Sam Shaw also showed great plate skills in his small sample of at bats.
— Yhoangel Aponte has the slugging component down but his bat to ball skills continue to be a red flag in his profile.
— Luis Meza is quite simply not a professional hitter at this point in time, he has the worst grade I’ve ever seen with this stat.
A
21, OF — Jace Bohrofen — 158.85
24, 2B/3B — Jeffrey Wehler — 105.05
19, C — Edward Duran — 88.74
21, 2B — Bryce Arnold — 84.81
22, 1B — Peyton Williams — 84.66
21, 1B/OF — Brennan Orf — 84.13
20, 2B/SS — Adrian Pinto — 77.30
21, 3B/SS — Nick Goodwin — 71.54
19, SS — Manuel Beltre — 69.89
20, OF — Jaden Rudd — 63.16
19, SS/2B — Tucker Toman — 60.53
21, OF — Braden Barry — 52.17
22, C — Jackson Hornung — 43.93
— The elephant in the room is Jace Bohrofen who has been incredible since joining Dunedin, he’s walking more than he strikes out and slugging .750. Tell tale signs of a hitter too advanced for the level. He should receive a High-A promotion before season end like Jeffrey Wehler (who was significantly older, from less pedigree and not quite as good).
— Edward Duran only has a 100 wRC+ at Single-A but PlateSkills likes him thanks to striking out as much as he walks. It also seems like he’s getting a bit unlucky. He’s got an impressive hit tool.
— An unlikely name, Bryce Arnold, has been the second best newly drafted player on a team full of them. He was a UDFA for the Jays.
— Brennan Orf has posted a ridiculous 28% BB% in over 100 PA. The slugging has been disappointing and will need to translate for him to be a big league regular but as far as plate skills goes he’s one of the best.
— Disappointing seasons for Manuel Beltre, Tucker Toman and Jaden Rudd.
— Braden Barry and Jackson Hornung are two college players that have struggled in a smaller sample at Single-A.
A+
23, OF — Alan Roden — 114.37
24, 2B — Michael Turconi — 98.01
24, INF — Riley Tirotta — 92.77
22, SS — Josh Kasevich — 82.34
21, 3B — Alex De Jesus — 81.72
23, OF — Devonte Brown — 80.08
22, 1B — Peyton Williams — 77.73
22, OF — Garrett Spain — 76.52
22, 2B — Cade Doughty — 71.15
20, OF — Gabriel Martinez — 66.36
21, OF — Dasan Brown — 58.82
— Alan Roden has been the biggest riser in the Jays system this year and his ascent started in Vancouver where he put up a 150 wRC+ and a remarkable 1.31 BB/K. More on Roden later at Double-A.
— Turconi and Tirotta are two older players who’ve been promoted to Double-A since dominating High-A.
— This stat likes how little Josh Kasevich strikes out but he’ll need to walk more to get away with his light hitting in the big leagues even at a premium defensive position.
— Cade Doughty has been perhaps the most disappointing of the 2022 Top 5 draft picks because he was a pro ready SEC bat with not a lot of defensive aptitude who has a 0.27 BB/K at a level he should be able to handle no problem.
— Gabriel Martinez does not walk and he hasn’t hit for the same impact as last year. He’s still young but he’s going to need to hit again to regain prospect status.
— I like what Dasan Brown brings on defense and on the bases and I have a personal rooting interest for him as a GTA native but he’s been a very poor hitter this year after putting up a 130 wRC+ last year. Disappointing.
AA
23, OF — Alan Roden — 103.50
21, 3B — Orelvis Martinez — 92.68
22, SS/2B — Leo Jimenez — 82.86
23, INF — Damiano Palmegiani — 80.49
24, OF — Steward Berroa — 77.49
22, 2B — Miguel Hiraldo — 73.19
22, 1B — Rainer Nunez — 52.68
— Alan Roden’s strikeout to walk rate has taken a slight hit since arriving at Double-A but it’s still excellent. The slugging has come forward though as Roden has a .500 SLG% in 137 PA. This works towards a 159 wRC+ which surpasses his High-A mark. Double-A is a tough level jump and he’s dominated it.
— Orelvis Martinez has left Double-A in the dust now but his improved discipline and big power led to an impressive PlateSkills showing. For reference, Martinez had a 71.81 PlateSkills score at Double-A in 2022.
— Leo Jimenez is another success story of the Blue Jays system this year. He’s hit for more power and struck out less at a tougher level than he played at last year. His High-A PlateSkills score last year was 70.78.
— Miguel Hiraldo has been on fire as of late but he’s going to need to trim his strikeout rate or start walking more for me to take him seriously as a prospect again.
— Double-A is a tough transition and I’d bet on Rainer Nunez being much better than this next year. Concerning production for a first base only type though.
AAA
The offensive environment in the International League has led to some inflated PlateSkills scores*
27, INF— Ernie Clement — 138.76
28, OF — Nathan Lukes — 115.97
25, 1B — Spencer Horwitz — 108.97
24, UTIL — Davis Schneider — 108.26
25, UTIL — Rafael Lantigua — 101.46
21, 3B — Orelvis Martinez — 88.20
23, 3B/OF — Addison Barger — 83.49
24, UTIL— Otto Lopez — 60.55
25, OF — Cam Eden — 56.25
— Ernie Clement is the top dog in this stat in the entire system because he’s striking out less than 5% of the time and slugging at a great clip. The slugging isn’t going to translate to the major league level but he’s earned his chance.
— Nathan Lukes might be a AAAA player but he’s dominated Triple-A again.
— Spencer Horwitz does not possess a lot of home run power and he doesn’t add much to a team defensively but he’s proven himself to be too good a pure hitter for Triple-A. He deserves a chance in the majors but there’s a lot of overlap with Brandon Belt’s role right now. His opportunity might have to come on a different team depending how the off-season goes.
— Davis Schneider grades out very well in PlateSkills which should be no surprise given his amazing Triple-A numbers. He hits for power, he walks, and he finds the sweet spot of the bat a lot.
— Rafael Lantigua is a minor league free agent this year and would have to be protected in the Rule 5 draft but he’s been a versatile producer at Triple-A. Hard to see the Jays opening a 40 man spot for him though, he’s likely a below average hitter at the MLB level.
— Orelvis Martinez has been overall good at Triple-A so far. He’s slugging a lot and has walked at a healthy clip. The strikeout numbers are a bit high right now (25.2%) which affects how he grades out here compared to Double-A (92.68)
— Addison Barger is weighed down by his awful start to the year but still manages a solid PlateSkills score even at Triple-A where seemingly everyone is hitting. He has a 100.77 PlateSkills score since returning to Triple-A from the Injured List at the end of June.
— I think Otto Lopez is on his way out this offseason. Never got it going after showing some promise last year and in the spring and now he’s on the 60-day IL.
— I’ve seen some people say the Jays should call up Cam Eden in September but the only thing he’s going to do is pinch run given how bad his bat projects.
This stat doesn’t have as many applications at the MLB level because production is production at that point. Bo Bichette grades out poorly in this stat because he doesn’t walk but we all know he’s a great hitter. If you would like to know, among qualified hitters on the Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr grades out the best.
