Introduction
Conventional scouting wisdom would tell us not to pay much attention to Lazaro Estrada. He’s an undersized 24 year old right-hander at Single-A who’s likely a long term reliever. But do some more digging and you’ll realize that there’s a lot of potential here that can’t be overlooked.
Lazaro Estrada was signed out of Cuba in 2018 and made his pro debut in Rookie Ball as a 19 year old. He pitched a lot in Rookie Ball his first two seasons but from 2020–2022, injuries and the pandemic limited him to just 39.1 innings. 2023 was Estrada’s first full season in affiliated baseball at 24 years old.
Estrada was statistically one of the best pitchers in the Jays system in 2023. At Single-A Dunedin he threw 76.1 IP between the bullpen and a starting role and had a 2.83 ERA with a 2.83 FIP to match. Estrada was actually better when the Jays converted him to a starting role, he had a 2.43 ERA. He lost a tick of velocity on his fastball and struck out fewer batters but he did more than hold his own as a starter despite mainly throwing 2 pitches.
Even with him getting reps as a starter, I project Estrada to end up as a reliever long term. 2 pitch pitchers typically end up in the bullpen and Estrada’s age and frame are also working against the dream of starting. As a future reliever, him being old for his competition level is less of a concern to me.
Here are some great MLB relievers and the age they debuted at:
- Felix Bautista, 27
- Yennier Cano, 28
- Jordan Romano, 26
- Erik Swanson, 25
- Raisel Iglesias, 25
- Pete Fairbanks, 25
- Jason Foley, 25
- Paul Sewald, 27
Player Breakdown
Estrada does all the main things you look for in a pitcher. This year at Single-A he had a strikeout rate in the 89th percentile and a walk rate in the 74th percentile. Despite being a flyball pitcher, he gave up just 3 home runs across 76.1 IP. A 3.40 xFIP would indicate he’s due for some regression in the home run department but that is still a great number.
Estrada has a stellar fastball and he throws it accordingly at 70% of the time. It was around 92 MPH as a starter and around 94 MPH as a reliever. That’s not terrible velocity for a 5"10 180 pounds pitcher but it’s certainly not stand out. What makes Estrada’s fastball so amazing is its shape, spin rate, and vertical approach angle.
Estrada will mix in a fastball that has more of a sinker shape 3% of the time but really he’s a two pitch pitcher. His secondary offering is his high spin 83 MPH curveball which he throws 27% of the time.
In the below section, I cover what some of these pitching terms mean and why they matter. If you’re familiar with pitch data feel free to skip through this but otherwise here’s a quick briefer.
A Pitching Data Review
Here’s a diagram I made that isn’t accurate to scale but is hopefully useful in illustrating vertical approach angle (VAA).
Vertical approach angle is the measure of the baseball’s vertical angle as it crosses home plate. Both a -90 VAA and a 0 VAA are theoretical, it’s essentially impossible for a pitcher to throw a pitch at these angles. When discussing fastballs, a “submarine” pitcher like Adam Cimber will have one of the flattest vertical approach angles (~-3) and an “over the top” pitcher like Ross Stripling will have one of the steepest (~-6.5).
There is significant research done to support the idea that a flatter vertical approach angle generally performs better than a steeper one. In the case of a submarine pitcher, a really flat VAA comes with a significant velocity trade off. There are also traditional pitchers with very flat VAAs such as Paul Sewald. Sewald’s outlier flat VAA allows his 92 MPH fastball to be one of the best in baseball. It’s incredibly difficult for a pitcher to change their vertical approach angle without completely re-working their mechanics to throw at a lower release point and that’s rarely an option for an MLB pitcher.
Another element to consider is fastball shape. IVB is “induced vertical break” and quite simply it measures how much a pitch breaks up or down by eliminating gravity from the equation. A larger IVB (>17 inches) means the pitch gets more “carry” or “ride”, these types of fastballs tend to be the most difficult for a hitter to make contact on but also tend to get barreled when not located well. A smaller IVB (<12 inches) means the fastball has more of a sinker shape, it’s easier for a hitter to make contact on this type of pitch but it also tends to keep the ball on the ground and off barrels. Fastballs with more of a sinker shape also tend to have more horizontal break on them. IVB is a stat that you do not want to be average in, that is known as a “dead zone fastball” which usually doesn’t miss a lot of bats or a lot of barrels.
The analytics community generally agrees that a really high IVB is the ideal fastball shape because strikeouts are the most sustainable route to run prevention as opposed to contact management. This is a broad generalization though and pitchers can have success with all kinds of fastball shapes.
The last thing to consider is spin rate. It’s not something we talk about as much with fastballs as it is with breaking balls but it’s still relevant. Spin rate is measured in RPMs (rotations per minute). For fastballs, it’s again a stat you don’t want to be average in. Typically the fastballs with the most spin have the most “late life” and are the hardest to hit. Fastballs with the least spin are typically located really well. The MLB average spin rate is around 2150 RPMs and 2400+ RPMs is considered high (eg. Lance Lynn’s fastball). For curveballs, it’s pretty much as simple as the more spin the better. The general benchmark of a high spin curveball is it reaching 2700+ RPM on average but it depends on what kind of curveball you throw.
His Fastball
Estrada has a very flat vertical approach angle of just -4.3 despite him having a quite conventional athletic delivery. This number is largely due to his small frame with his “drop and drive” release. It’s something that is unique to him as a pitcher. His VAA gives hitters added difficulty in picking up his heater and these kinds of fastballs have proven to perform exceptionally well at the top of the zone (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/where-vertical-approach-angle-seems-to-matter-most/).
Estrada’s fastball averaged 19 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) this year. That would be one of the higher marks in MLB and is an outstanding number. His fastball has extreme carry on it and makes it really difficult to make contact on. With good location especially up in the zone, it’s borderline unhittable even at around 93 MPH.
Estrada’s fastball averaged 2415 RPM this year. That’s a very good spin rate for a fastball especially one that isn’t particularly fast (fastball spin and velocity are strongly correlated). This is another point in favour of his fastball even if its considerable life makes it more difficult to harness.
All of these factors are related and they combine for a unique but awesome fastball. This translated over to results as it had a 29.4% whiff rate this year which is a great number for a fastball. In a relief role with his velocity up a tick and batters only seeing him once it performs even better.
The big factor for Estrada’s fastball is his command of it. He has a tendency to spray it left to right but he did miss high more often than he missed low which is a good thing given that I’ve mentioned over and over that it plays best at the top of the zone. Despite him not yet being a master of command, Estrada does a good job of limiting walks.
His Curveball
Estrada’s curveball averaged 2667 RPMs this year. Despite that being an above average number it’s actually well down from in the past. In 2022, it averaged 3263 RPM and it has exceeded 3400 RPMs before.
Estrada’s curveball averaged 75 MPH last year and this year it’s sitting at almost 83 MPH which is a stark difference. This leads me to believe that the drop in spin is intentional and has to do with him significantly fine-tuning his curveball shape for a harder more tight spin AKA a power curveball. A harder curveball like this puts pressure on the hitter to make a quicker decision and blends together with his fastball better giving added deception and some ugly swings.
This year his harder version of his curveball had a 37.6% whiff rate which is a great mark. It also got a lot of chases and weak contact, its 84.1 average exit velocity against is impressive. It might not be an incredibly high spin offering like it was but this change has worked for him and also improved his results. I’ll be interested to see how the big prospect sites grade it next year because it has received double plus grades and has been called the best curveball in the Jays system by Baseball America in the past.
Conclusion
Estrada’s stuff is nasty. If you’re still not convinced after me yapping about it for paragraphs and paragraphs take a look at what some of the models think. Here’s a tweet from Eno Sarris, the godfather of Stuff+.
And a different Stuff model prototype invented by TJStats (a great follow on Twitter for Baseball and Hockey analytics).
TJStats mentions in that thread that curveballs seem to be grading out too low in his model and fastballs too high. Regardless, Estrada throws both of them and he tops the chart. A 106 Location+ is impressive too.
Estrada quite clearly has two plus pitches and pretty advanced command and control. In my opinion, it’s time for a better test for the 24 year old. I’ve been puzzled with why he hasn’t been promoted and why he’s being stretched out as a starter but I do have a few theories.
My working theory for why he started a lot down the stretch is that they wanted to see how he responded to the challenge and to increase his inning count. Estrada’s 76.1 IP this year are a career high for him. When it comes to why he has yet to be promoted, there are a few factors to consider. There are developmental reasons such as him working with specific coaches or that the facilities down in Florida are the best. There’s also the factor of Estrada being Rule 5 Eligible. If you bump him up to Double-A and he performs well as a reliever you run considerably more risk of him being taken in the draft. As a Single-A pitcher, there’s virtually no chance he gets selected.
Whatever the reason may be, Estrada is all but certain to start next year at a higher level. I’d love to see Estrada start off next year at Double-A New Hampshire in the bullpen. He has quickly become one of my favourite prospects in the Jays system. He’s a diamond in the rough and I see a clear path to being a great MLB reliever here.
