The last update to my MLB top 100 prospects list was last summer which you can find here: https://medium.com/@NaeNaeTakes/top-100-prospect-post-draft-update-a5e85684bf4c. This updated list will consider the remainder of the MiLB season, the Arizona Fall League, the updating of other prospect publications, and my ever changing opinions on players.
Some reminders:
— I do this because I enjoy it first and foremost. I do consider myself to be about as knowledgeable as one can be on prospects given the information I have access to but I wouldn’t fault you for taking me less seriously than a professional scout.
— As always, I am open to all constructive criticism on the list. I’m happy to discuss the reasoning for a position because there always is one. If you’ve followed me for a long time you’d know that I am objective when talking about prospects. I also don’t have an encyclopedic knowledge so if I’m missing something or factually wrong let me know!
— I have added tool grades on the 20–80 scale as well as an overall grade. These are POTENTIAL GRADES and not current grades. I include “Arm” in my “Field” grade. Always remember there are more factors that go into prospect evaluation than whatever tool grades I have down, the ranking is the final say.
An article like this is going to be long no matter what and my last list was about an hour read as well. A lot of research goes into this so I’d rather say too much than say too little. Ctrl/Command + F is your best friend if you only care about certain prospects.
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1. Jackson Holliday — Baltimore Orioles (AAA)
20 / LHH / SS
Previous Rank: 1
Holliday hit very well across 4 levels of the minor leagues as a teenager which is obviously incredibly impressive. It’s rare to see a hit tool this advanced, he already has elite barrel accuracy and comfortably plus bat to ball skills. His swing decisions are good and he’s going to a walk a lot. Holliday has the raw power to get to 20+ home run power as a big leaguer but right now he’s comfortably a hit over power line drive hitter. He’s a great athlete who runs well and has the range for shortstop. He’s a skilled defender there who shows good instincts and decisions but could use more reps. Holliday might not have the power we’ve come to expect from a #1 prospect but if you’re scoffing at a player with this pedigree, youth, production, and tools then you’ve lost the plot.
2. Jackson Chourio — Milwaukee Brewers (AAA)
19 / RHH / OF
Previous Rank: 3
The Brewers highlighted their faith in Chourio when they signed him to a record prospect contract at just 19 years old. He didn’t have a huge year production wise but from a process standpoint he cleaned up a few things that have me excited about his 2024. He’s a great athlete with explosive bat speed that allows him to pack a big punch even with a smaller frame. He’s going to be a 25+ home run threat annually and has shown he can hit it out foul pole to foul pole. Chourio makes lots of contact and likes to swing. Being aggressive is not necessarily a bad thing given his impact on contact but it could become a problem in the big leagues if his plate discipline doesn’t continue to improve with experience. He’s an excellent baserunner and looks the part of an above average defensive center fielder. One other thing of note, Chourio improved drastically once the Southern League stopped using pre-tacked balls that were driving hitter whiff rates up league wide.
3. James Wood — Washington Nationals (AA)
21 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 2
Wood is 6"7 240 and is an incredible athlete that runs like a gazelle. He has massive raw power and knows how to get to it in games, his quality of contact is some of the best in all of minor league baseball. Wood has shown above average plate discipline but it’s coming at the cost of being very patient on in zone pitches. His natural bat to ball skills are not bad but Double-A pitchers began to exploit his struggles with picking up spin and got him to expand and whiff more especially as he worked himself deeper into counts. I’ll bet on him improving his pitch recognition and adapting his approach accordingly next year. It’s 40 home run upside with high BABIPs and a solid walk rate. Wood will add value in the field whether that’s CF or RF. I’m happy to go down with the ship on him.
4. Dylan Crews — Washington Nationals (AA)
21 / RHH / OF
Previous Rank: 4
As a draft prospect, Crews boasted an elite all around tool-set with incredible production against the top amateur hitters in the world. He has huge power to all fields, makes good swing decisions, hits for lots of average, and projects to stick in center field as an average to above average defender there. Crews did struggle with swing and miss at Double-A. That could be a warning sign or it could be a blip on the radar. I tend to lean the latter as I don’t think it’s fair to pivot too hard off pre-draft evaluations based on a tiny sample in which a player has hardly even worked with their new club or got used to their environment.
5. Wyatt Langford — Texas Rangers (AAA)
22 / RHH / OF
Previous Rank: 7
Wyatt Langford made professional baseball look really easy as he had a 1.157 OPS across 200 plate appearances at 4 levels. I considered Langford in the same tier as Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes in my draft rankings and he was exactly as advertised, if not even better. He hammers all pitch types, shows incredible plate discipline, and strikeouts don’t project to be an issue. I’d go as far to say that he’s currently the best hitter in minor league baseball. The knock on his profile is he isn’t going to give you premium defense as he’s projecting as an average defensive left fielder. Langford moved up 2 spots for his incredible run to end the season but I’m too weary of the sample size to push him past Crews who I evaluated as a better prospect from a bigger college sample.
6. Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays (MLB)
20 / RHH / 3B/SS
Previous Rank: 5
Caminero dominated High-A and Double-A before being called up to the Rays at just 20 years old. He has good contact skills and top of the scale raw power with a line-drive and groundball oriented approach which will likely lead to great BABIP numbers. He is going to be very efficient from a home run per flyball perspective but he’ll need to elevate the ball more to get the most out of his raw power. Caminero cleaned up his plate discipline while facing better pitchers which is a good sign of what’s to come but he still has work to do in that department. He has become quite physical and isn’t a particularly strong defender. He has the arm to profile at third base and has plenty of time to improve his hands, instincts, and footwork.
7. Paul Skenes — Pittsburgh Pirates (AA)
21 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 8
Brace yourself, I have a lot to say about Paul Skenes.
He was unprecedentedly dominant at the highest level of college baseball and did so on workhorse volume. He sits 97–98 MPH with his fastball and regularly touches 100 MPH deep into starts. People have become stuck on his below average fastball shape but you can’t acknowledge it without also acknowledging that as velocity increases, shape quality tends to decrease. There are also ways to work around his fastball shape such as leaning on his strong arm-side run and embracing a true two-seamer, a change he seems to already be making with the Pirates. His sweeping slider looks like a potential plus pitch from a stuff perspective and played like a plus-plus pitch in college. Skenes has been working hard on his changeup and he used it more with the Pirates to great success. It has a natural advantage given the velocity of his fastball and he just needs to find more consistency with it’s shape for me to call it his third plus pitch. The cherry on top is his plus command and control. He had expert location of his fastball and slider in particular as an amateur. Skenes isn’t flawless and I think some of the comparisons from the media are unfair but he’s an incredible pitching prospect.
8. Ethan Salas — San Diego Padres (AA)
17 / LHH / C
Previous Rank: 6
Salas is a unique prospect which makes him difficult to rank. He was the top international free agent and it was apparent very quickly that he was unprecedented levels of advanced for a 17 year old. He hit well at Single-A before stumbling at High-A and then was confusingly promoted to Double-A. He has a smooth compact swing and uses it to make a lot of contact with a knack for the barrel. He hasn’t yet grown into his raw power and considering his age it would be a surprise if he had. Scouts rave about his catcher’s glove and leadership. He’s already posting plus pop times and has been an impressively polished receiver and blocker. Development isn’t linear so there’s no saying that Salas keeps improving at his current pace but as far as projection goes it doesn’t get more advanced than this.
9. Emmanuel Rodriguez — Minnesota Twins (A+)
20 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 9
Rodriguez has been one of “my guys” for quite some time now. There’s no doubt he’s a flawed player, he’s overly patient on good pitches to hit and swings and misses too much in the zone. But with these flaws comes immense upside. He’s 20 years old coming off a 145 wRC+ season at High-A in which he walked over 20% of the time. His plate discipline is elite and so is his power projection. It’s plus-plus raw juice with the loft and pull-side leverage to hit 30+ home runs annually. Rodriguez has good routes and instincts in the outfield and is a great athlete who moves well enough to play center field well into his 20s. He also stole 20 bags this year for good measure. He’s not a finished product but I believe that with more experience he’ll learn to pick his spots early in the count and manage his strikeouts.
10. Jackson Jobe — Detroit Tigers (AA)
21 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 50
We didn’t see Jobe until late in the year due to a back injury. He returned throwing harder and dominated lower-minor and Arizona Fall League hitters. His fastball is now 95–97 MPH from a flat vertical approach angle with above average carry. Jobe spins the ball as well as anyone and he has learned to harness that gift better. His slider dominates hitters and routinely touches 3000 RPMs. Conversely, he kills spin well on his great changeup and has the feel to attack hitters of both handedness with it. He added a cutter that throws hitters off his fastball and is very good in it’s own right. His command and control also took a big step forward this year and project to be good enough to headline a rotation. Jobe has a high level understanding of pitch-modelling and how to maximize his deep arsenal. Now to repeat his stellar work over 100+ innings.
11. Evan Carter — Texas Rangers (MLB)
21 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 11
Carter was everything the Rangers could’ve possibly hoped for when they called him up to end the year. His calling card is elite plate discipline and it’s something that fully translated to the majors early on. Carter hits a lot of line drives and should make enough contact to hit for average on top of big walk numbers. He’s a smart hitter who has shown the ability to make adjustments on the fly. He has also made some strength gains to get to potentially above average raw power but his swing path and patient nature means he’s likely a 15–20 home run hitter if he can hit lefties well enough to play every day. Carter is a good defensive outfielder who would call center field home on most teams.
12. Roman Anthony — Boston Red Sox (AA)
19 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 18
Anthony’s first full season was a stellar one that drove his meteoric rise up prospect boards and I’m buying all of the stock I can get entering the 2024 season. He’s the full package offensively with good bat to ball skills, really good plate discipline, and big raw power to all fields. This isn’t to say he doesn’t have problems. He doesn’t elevate enough, he struggles versus same-handed pitchers, and he’s better against fastballs than breaking balls. You can’t wave these problems away but they’re some of the most common and fixable problems a young hitter can have. Anthony is a pretty good runner right now with a decent shot to stick in center field but it’s not out of the question that he’s a long term right fielder.
13. Walker Jenkins — Minnesota Twins (A)
18 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 16
Jenkins was my top ranked high schooler in the 2023 draft and he did nothing to dissuade me to keep him as such after his pro debut. He looked way too advanced for Rookie Ball and Single-A, making tons of contact and doing damage. He has the body and bat speed to hit for 25–30 home run power and he’s going to do so while managing strikeouts. His approach has been inconsistent and he’s more of a fastball hitter right now but those are normal areas of improvement in an 18 year old. Jenkins currently runs and defends well but it’ll likely be his body development that determines if he’s a center fielder or right fielder long term.
14. Jackson Merrill — San Diego Padres (AA)
20 / LHH / SS
Previous Rank: 10
Merrill makes tons of contact and sprays the ball to all fields. He’s not going to be someone who walks much due to his aggressive tendencies but he’s an outstanding bad ball hitter who can get away with expanding the zone. I’ve previously been concerned about his ability to elevate the ball enough to properly utilize his good raw power but he showed significant improvements in his groundball rate this year and could hit 20+ home runs as he continues to learn to elevate with authority. He also hasn’t shown much of a weakness against left-handers unlike most young lefty hitters. Merrill isn’t incredibly agile but he has a good first step and is an instinctual shortstop who can make all the throws required of the position.
15. Adael Amador — Colorado Rockies (AA)
20 / Switch / 2B/3B
Previous Rank: 13
Amador has my best hit tool projection in minor league baseball. He’s a switch hitter who has preposterous contact rates from both sides of the dish and unlike most elite contact hitters he does so without expanding the zone. The combination puts him above the stratosphere in the plate skills department. Amador isn’t going to blow you away as a power hitter given his swing and approach but he made progress in the exit velocity department and looks like he’ll get to 50 grade raw power. I see him at second base or third base long term as he lacks the range or arm for shortstop and the Rockies already have a Gold Glove caliber shortstop.
16. Jordan Lawlar — Arizona Diamondbacks (AAA)
21 / RHH / SS
Previous Rank: 14
Lawlar is one of the most well-rounded prospects in baseball. Good natural bat to ball skills, good feel to hit, really good swing decisions. Lawlar has fringe average raw power currently but he’s still adding strength and pulls lots of flyballs. He has a weakness against breaking balls especially of the right-handed pitcher variety which he’ll need to iron out as a big leaguer. Lawlar is an excellent baserunner and a much improved defender at shortstop. It’s a high floor profile not dissimilar to Marcus Semien.
17. Jasson Dominguez — New York Yankees (MLB)
20 / Switch / OF
Previous Rank: 28
I was high on Dominguez prior to his big league promotion and it paid immediate dividends. He’s going to be sidelined for a while with Tommy John Surgery but the building blocks are still in place for him to be a middle of the lineup force. The Martian has big raw power, a great eye, and improved his contact rates as the season went on. He’s already a good hitter but he can be a great one if he recognizes offspeed better and continues to make more of his best contact in the air. He’s a better straight-line runner than I thought he was and it looks like he may be at a lower playing weight than previously. I still think he’s a fringey defensive center fielder and it’s fair to wonder how Tommy John will affect his arm strength.
18. Colson Montgomery — Chicago White Sox (AA)
21 / LHH / SS/3B
Previous Rank: 15
Montgomery missed much of the year with a mid-back sprain but returned on fire before cooling off in the later months. He’s an incredibly advanced hitter and his prodigious eye forces pitchers to attack him. He has also flashed plus bat-to-ball skills in the past but has yet to translate those fully to Double-A. He’s more of a pull-side power threat right now but he has the frame and make-up to hit for all fields power. Montgomery is a natural shortstop who has the skills and arm to play the position. Some scouts worry about his size and consequently his range but he should be a plus defender at third base should he have to move.
19. Samuel Basallo — Baltimore Orioles (AA)
19 / LHH / C/1B
Previous Rank: 33
I got on Basallo early and he didn’t dissappoint as he dominated 3 levels mostly as an 18 year old. He’s built a lot stronger than his listed weight and is already posting big exit velocities. His bat-to-ball skills are impressive for a young pull-heavy hitter and should be average as a big leaguer. As the season progressed, Basallo improved his swing decisions. They’re still below-average but I think he’ll grow out of some of it with experience. He moves better than you’d expect for his size but needs to iron out many of the fine details of catching. His big arm is the carrying tool that could keep him behind the dish but the Orioles may move him to 1B or DH with Rutschman there.
20. Ricky Tiedemann — Toronto Blue Jays (AAA)
21 / LHP / SP
Previous Rank: 21
Tiedemann dealt with arm injuries in 2023 but stayed healthy to end the year while pitching deeper into games. He throws from a low 3/4 slot with a difficult arm angle that adds deception to all of his offerings. His fastball is the perfect combination of bat-missing and weak-contact inducing and comes in 95–96 MPH with sink and run. His sweeping slider was his most improved pitch this year, it gives lefties hell and he locates it well for chases and called strikes. He featured his changeup less this year but it’s still a plus offering with heavy fade and dip. Tiedemann can have difficulties with glove-side fastball command given his delivery and his control backed up this year as he struggled with mechanics amid injury. He’s a good athlete for his size and has been an average strike thrower when he’s healthy.
If you’re interested in reading more about Tiedemann you should check out this article by me: https://jaysjournal.com/posts/a-deep-dive-into-how-ricky-tiedemann-and-nate-pearson-compare-as-prospects
21. Max Clark — Detroit Tigers (A)
19 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 17
Clark is a dynamic athlete with a tantalizing blend of present skills and potential skills. He’s a patient hitter with a powerful swing that he can struggle to repeat consistently. He’ll grow into it more and his natural bat-to-ball skills are plenty good. The raw power is present for big home run power but the swing is built for gap-to-gap damage, we’ll see if he ever finds the Goldilocks zone between both approaches but for now I’m skeptical. He’s going to add a ton of value on the bases and he’s projecting as a plus defender in center field.
22. Pete Crow-Armstrong — Chicago Cubs (MLB)
21 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 12
As fans we tend to under-value defense and I’m not willing to make that mistake with Crow-Armstrong who I fully believe is deserving of being labelled an 80 grade defender. He has great speed, impeccable routes and jumps, an above average arm, and has shown an affinity for the highlight reel. He’s not a great pure hitting prospect as he makes below average decisions with just average contact rates. His raw power has improved and he has the feel for the barrel to hit for solid home run power especially to his pull side. PCA hits both lefties and righties well enough to play every day and his glove and baserunning should make him an above average regular.
23. Cade Horton — Chicago Cubs (AA)
22 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 20
Horton was dominant all year and has cemented himself as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He sits in the mid 90s with a fastball with natural ride and cut to it. He’s already locating it well in and above the zone and can reach back for 98–99 MPH if he needs it. Horton can really a spin baseball and his slider is a real weapon with depth and sweep. He adds on a good downer curveball that he mixes well with his aforementioned pitches. He’s learning feel for his changeup but he has done well against lefties without it. Horton is already a pretty good strike thrower, if he can continue to iron out his command and work up to a bigger workload he looks like a future #2 starter.
24. Cole Young — Seattle Mariners (A+)
20 / LHH / SS/2B
Previous Rank: 27
Young proved himself to be one of the most advanced high school hitters in the 2022 class as he seamlessly transitioned to the lower-minors. He’s a great contact hitter with barrel accuracy and an all-fields line drive approach. He has a standout batter’s eye and has walked as much as he has struck out as a professional. Young has home run power against righties and could still grow into more raw power. He’s a skilled infielder who isn’t as athletically gifted as most shortstops, it’s a 50 at SS and 60 at 2B situation, either way he’s adding value on defense.
25. Coby Mayo — Baltimore Orioles (AAA)
22 / RHH / 3B/1B
Previous Rank: 37
Mayo is a bat-first player who brings big time thump and improved plate skills. He has a smooth swing with loft and his big frame yields big time raw power. Mayo excels at hitting hard flyballs, he mostly leans on his pull-side power but has the strength to go deep to every part of the ballpark. He makes solid swing decisions and hits fastballs hard and often. Much of his strikeouts can be attributed to swinging through breaking balls which is an obvious area of improvement for 2024. Mayo is big for third base but improved his actions and has more than enough arm to profile. Barring a trade, he may be forced over to first base or the outfield given Baltimore’s infield situation.
26. Andrew Painter — Philadelphia Phillies (AA)
20 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 26
Andrew Painter was on his way to being the best pitching prospect in baseball before his elbow blew out. After some wasted months, the Phillies and Painter opted for Tommy John surgery. He had a heavy ride mid 90s fastball, potentially two plus breaking balls, glimpses of a solid changeup, and advanced command and control. We’ll see what his velocity and command look like in 2025.
27. Termarr Johnson — Pittsburgh Pirates (A+)
19 / LHH / 2B
Previous Rank: 24
Johnson hit for more power than he was expected to but it came at the cost of his bat-to-ball skills that were advertised as plus. He’s a patient hitter who very rarely expands the zone, walking at a >20% clip across Single-A and High-A. He combines plus raw power with good barrel feel, a rare combination in a second baseman. Scouts are concerned about Johnson’s whiff rates but I’m still not convinced his natural bat-to-ball skills are actually below average. It seems that he’s getting too pull-happy and struggling to cover pitches (especially breaking balls) on the outer half of the plate, an issue that is compounded by having shorter arms. Johnson isn’t a particularly rangy defender but he should find a home at second or third base given his hands and arm.
28. Chase DeLauter — Cleveland Guardians (AA)
21 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 80
DeLauter battled multiple foot issues but quickly made up for lost time tearing a path through the lower minors and the Arizona Fall League. He’s a good athlete for his size with the potential for plus raw power. He showed plus bat-to-ball skills and elevated the ball consistently this year despite an ugly “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” follow through. DeLauter was a tad aggressive this year but reeled it back against better pitching and I’d say his approach is an advanced one. He runs pretty well and has a big arm but will likely slide over to right field where he already splits time. If it all clicks he could be a 5 tool player but it all starts with a full season next year.
29. Marcelo Mayer — Boston Red Sox (AA)
21 / LHH / SS
Previous Rank: 19
Mayer’s struggles this year were no secret and neither was his shoulder injury that he played through from the beginning of May. I do think it’s fair to assign some amount of blame on the shoulder and you have to give a young hitter new to Double-A room to work. It’s still important to note that his swing decisions were erratic in 2023 start to finish. If you watch his swing, he’s still set up vertically very late into the pitch and as a result has less time to make decisions and get on time for the pitch. This is something he may need to adjust against advanced pitching as he’s currently prone to expanding and whiffing down in the zone. Enough with the negative, I really do love his power projection. He has a gorgeous left-handed stroke with natural loft and he has grown into plus raw power. Mayer is also a sure-handed defender, he falls into the Colson Montgomery bucket of having some range question marks but the instincts, arm, and actions being there.
30. Curtis Mead — Tampa Bay Rays (MLB)
23 / RHH / 3B
Previous Rank: 30
Mead’s carrying tool is his bat and it’s one that I’ve been in love with for a while. He missed time with a wrist injury and to no surprise, saw his exit velocities taper as he recovered. He has shown plus raw power in the past and I’d bet on that being what we see in 2024. He’s an all-fields hitter with contact skills, plate discipline, and elite feel to hit. Mead has struggled to do damage on breaking balls but he recognizes spin out of the hand well. He’s not a toolsy defender but has worked hard at the things he can control and should be passable somewhere on the infield.
31. Jeferson Quero — Milwaukee Brewers (AA)
21 / RHH / C
Previous Rank: 32
Quero’s foundation is his catching ability. He’s an athletic defender and the complete package defensively. The arm, blocking, receiving, working with pitchers have all got rave reviews. He also has upside as a hitter. Quero has good bat-to-ball skills and likes to swing often, a combination that will lead to minimal strikeouts. He also won’t walk much and needs to cut down chase against spin in particular. He’s a flyball hitter which comes with some warts (pop-up rate, BABIP) but with his good raw power it also comes with the potential for 20 home runs. Given how valuable catcher defense is, all Quero needs to do is be an average hitter to be an above average regular.
32. Druw Jones — Arizona Diamondbacks (A)
20 / RHH / OF
Previous Rank: 22
Jones struggled and didn’t stay healthy but he ended the year on a good note. I’ve seen him off Top 100 lists entirely and I feel like that’s harsh on a teenager who dealt with three significant injuries in a year. His swing is rough right now, he’s usually late and will step into the bucket leading to too many groundballs. His swing decisions and contact rates improved a bit as the year went on but there’s still work to do and it starts with fixing the swing. When he’s properly set up to do damage, his raw power is very real and his bat speed is as advertised. Jones is a potential stalwart defender in center field and deserves to be given time as a hitter even if he’s rawer than expected.
33. Harry Ford — Seattle Mariners (A+)
20 / RHH / C/OF
Previous Rank: 51
Ford is a first class athlete at catcher with plenty of present hitting talent. He has average bat-to-ball skills even with a steep swing path and a pull-centric approach. He’s growing into above average raw power to pair with his already good game power. In my last ranking, I critiqued that he could stand to be more aggressive on good pitches to hit and he did just that to end the year while keeping his elite plate discipline intact. He’s not going to hit for much average but I see an above average hit tool all the same. Ford runs very well and has improved his technical ability as a catcher. He still needs work as a blocker and receiver but will control the run game. If he moves off catcher he’ll provide defensive value somewhere.
34. Colt Keith — Detroit Tigers (AAA)
22 / LHH / 3B/2B
Previous Rank: 34
Keith has a long track record of hitting and put on significant muscle to hit for more power this year. He has managed strikeouts and walked at a good clip with contact rates and swing decisions to back it up. It’s his quality of contact that is the real carrying tool now, he has grown into above average raw power and that’s a strong combination with his great feel for the sweet spot and pull-side loft. He isn’t particularly skilled on defense and his added weight has limited his range. I think he’ll be fringe on the infield somewhere other than first base but might be worth a look in the outfield too. Keith is a complete hitter and the Tigers could use his bat in the lineup everyday.
35. Carson Williams — Tampa Bay Rays (AA)
20 / RHH / SS
Previous Rank: 35
Williams is a standout defender at shortstop. He’s twitchy with above average range, a huge arm, and a penchant for making difficult plays look routine. He also has a combination of above average raw power, a healthy dose of flyballs, and pull-side leverage which will let him hit for 30 home run power. Unfortunately, Williams’ lack of hit tool is going to hold him back. His steep swing path is coming at the expense of swing and miss and his swing leaves him susceptible to timing issues with breaking balls. The swing decisions aren’t helping, he’s too passive and also expands too often. Williams has youth and premium defense which means he’ll get lots of opportunities to prove he can hit upper-minor pitching.
36. Josue De Paula — Los Angeles Dodgers (A)
18 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 43
De Paula is one of the most advanced teenagers on the list, featuring a picturesque left-handed swing, present hitting tools, and projection to dream on. He’s already producing in Single-A with above average contact rates, a patient approach, and plenty of power projection. Continuing to add on muscle and improve his swing decisions are the next steps for him as a hitter this year. De Paula is likely going to be a below average defender, he’s an average runner for now and quite raw. It’s tough to speculate on an 18 year old and I am giving him the benefit of the doubt.
37. Lazaro Montes — Seattle Mariners (A)
19 / LHH / OF/1B
Previous Rank: 45
Montes is one of the most talented hitting prospects in baseball and has the offensive ceiling to anchor a lineup. He dominated rookie ball and then went to Single-A as an 18 year old and dominated it as well. The power projection is off the charts, he’s already posting elite exit velocities and much of that comes in the air. Montes’ power comes with swing and miss and he’s going to have to adjust to the low breaker, high fastball pitching archetype in particular. He has managed strikeouts despite these issues because he’s a touch aggressive on pitches in the zone but also rarely chases. Montes isn’t going to be much of a defender due to his speed and should probably move to first base. If he hits like I think he will, he’ll be worth 3–4 wins regardless.
38. Dylan Lesko — San Diego Padres (A+)
20 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 56
Lesko returned from Tommy John with his great stuff intact and that makes him really exciting. His fastball sits in the mid 90s with incredible riding life, he can manipulate his velocity and the shape of the pitch to suit his needs. His changeup has plus shape and is a big separator off his fastball yet he sells it very well. He has a high-spin 12–6 curveball that has big movement but can be an early identification to hitters with his shaky command and velocity separation. Lesko’s command and control was rough this year which isn’t an unexpected development coming off TJ. He was a good strike thrower in high school and figures to get most of that back as he continues to build up and re-sync his mechanics.
39. Drew Gilbert — New York Mets (AA)
23 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 55
Gilbert brings an enviable high floor all-around skillset with a great competitive spirit. He isn’t lacking in bat speed or raw power despite his 5"9 frame and has a swing and approach built for pulled flyballs. Gilbert’s bat to ball skills are above average and he has done a good job limiting strikeouts. His swing decisions are questionable but good enough, he’s passive at times but also expands more often than you would like. Gilbert moves well in the outfield and could push Brandon Nimmo into right field in the coming years.
40. Robby Snelling — San Diego Padres (AA)
20 / LHP/ SP
Previous Rank: 41
The Baseball America MiLB pitcher of the year, Snelling is more polished than he is overpowering. A plus fastball is the backbone of his arsenal, it’s 94 MPH with life on it. His high 70s curveball is results over pitch data, he tunnels it well off his fastball and manipulates it at will. Like most prep pitchers, he’s learning feel for his changeup. It could be above average with more velocity separation in the future. Snelling is already an above average strike thrower and figures to have plus command and control in the future. He’ll need more velocity to be a top of the rotation arm but is projecting as a reliable lefty starter.
41. Noah Schultz — Chicago White Sox (A)
20 / LHP / SP
Previous Rank: 44
Schultz is 6"9 and a very imposing figure on the mound. His 94 MPH fastball comes in from a difficult angle with late-run on it. It got both whiffs and weak contact and there’s room for more velocity. I think his slider is even better, it’s a lethal weapon with lots of sweep, lefties find it unhittable. Schultz can dominate lower minor pitchers with just two pitches but he’ll need to work on his changeup to right-handed hitters as he moves up the ladder. He’s surprisingly coordinated for his height and profiles as an above average strike thrower, though his command can waver at times. He’ll look to answer the volume and health question marks in 2024.
42. Owen Caissie — Chicago Cubs (AA)
21 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 57
Repping the 905, Caissie has legitimate 80 grade raw power and elevates the ball enough that it’s showing up in games in a big way. Other than that he’s a raw hitter who has a long swing which leads to significant swing and miss. He could stand to be a bit more aggressive in the zone but he has a good feel for the strike zone and pitchers naturally fear his power. Caissie has the athleticism to profile in a corner outfield spot.
43. Jett Williams — New York Mets (AA)
20 / RHH / SS/OF
Previous Rank: 57
As Marcus Stroman said, height doesn’t measure heart. Williams is just 5"6 but hits for some power all the same due to his knack for making his best contact at ideal launch angles. He brutalizes groundball pitchers in particular with great feel for the sweet spot. It’s Williams’ swing decisions that are his true calling card and he’s going to walk at a monstrous clip. He also has above average bat to ball skills meaning he can manage his strikeouts despite his ultra patient approach. He’s a blazer on the basepaths and has the speed to play center field if the Mets want him to. Williams’ smaller frame fits better at second base than shortstop although he has not yet played there as a professional.
44. Xavier Isaac — Tampa Bay Rays (A+)
20 / LHH / 1B
Previous Rank: 61
A surprise first round pick at the time, Isaac has shaped up to be an offensive force like the Rays hoped. He has huge raw power to all fields from the left side, feel for elevating the ball, and an already advanced approach. He can be prone to mishits, swing and miss, and has struggled versus lefties. Still, the hit tool projection remains quite good for someone his size. Isaac has improved his athleticism and looks like an everyday first baseman rather than the DH I initially pinned him as.
45. Hurston Waldrep — Atlanta Braves (AAA)
21 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 59
I graded Waldrep as the 7th best prospect in the draft and his pro debut doesn’t hurt my willingness to rank him aggressively. He’s no longer over-using his fastball like at Florida. It’s a tick above average offering at 95 MPH with some cut. The Braves scrapped his curveball and he primarily utilizes his hard and sharp slider now. It’s his splitter that’s the real prize, an aesthetic and sound double-plus offering that lets his fastball play up. Waldrep will have to continue to fight off relief concerns due to his delivery and below average strike throwing. If he can do so, he’ll be a top of the rotation arm.
46. Kyle Harrison — San Francisco Giants (MLB)
22 / LHP / SP
Previous Rank: 31
Harrison’s great fastball sits 94 MPH with heavy run from a difficult release point. He has long been touted for his slider but he changed the shape this year to more of a “slurve” and the results and stuff metrics weren’t a fan. His command of that pitch also held it back in the majors. Harrison also added a solid cutter as a bridge pitch between his fastball and breaking ball. His changeup is a good chase offering and helps to keep hitters off his fastball. He has long had below average command and control and struggled with walks in particular this year (in a difficult strike throwing environment at Triple-A). Harrison is young for his level and has the ideal bat-missing fastball but reaching his ceiling comes with command and breaking ball questions to answer.
47. Noelvi Marte — Cincinnati Reds (MLB)
22 / RHH / 3B
Previous Rank: 48
One thing you need to know about Marte is he hits. He makes a good amount of contact and much of it is hard to all fields. The contact gains have seemingly come at the cost of flyballs and his plate discipline. I can’t say I’m a big fan of this trade-off. I really believe in his hitting talent and the small MLB sample is encouraging but there’s work to be done for the 22 year old. You’re betting on the youth, shortstop experience, and arm to make him an average defender at third base. While not a big stolen base threat, Marte is fast and a very good baserunner.
48. Masyn Winn — St. Louis Cardinals (MLB)
21 / RHH / SS
Previous Rank: 39
Winn is a dynamic athlete on the bases and in the field. He has plus bat-to-ball skills and has grown into more home run power as he elevated the ball more at AAA. His swing decisions could use work, he’s a good bad ball hitter but he’s not getting himself into positions where he can do damage. He’s unlikely to ever be an impact hitter given his contact quality but he’s a sure bet to significantly improve on his end-of-season MLB stint. Winn is tooled up to the max at shortstop, flashing top of the scale arm strength and incredible range. It’s more about the routine plays than the highlight reel ones going forward.
49. Brady House — Washington Nationals (AA)
20 / RHH / 3B
Previous Rank: 58
House already checks many boxes but still has another gear to find. He’s a big framed guy with big bat speed and huge raw power. It’s a high BABIP profile given the heavy dose of hard contact on a line and on the ground to all fields. Swing path issues are among the fixable in young hitters and House has already made progress finding steepness in his swing but he’s still not getting to his power in games. He’ll need to tone down his hyper-aggressive approach as he moves up the ladder but does have above average bat to ball skills. He’s a natural fit on the hot corner, I have him as an above average defender there long term.
50. Brooks Lee — Minnesota Twins (AAA)
22 / Switch / SS/3B
Previous Rank: 40
Lee is your favourite hitter’s favourite hitter. He has elite barrel accuracy with an incredible feel for the sweet spot. He combines that with plus bat-to-ball skills and above average bat speed. He is more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter which is due to his swing and lack of high end exit velocities. His swing decisions are well below average but he has got away with it up until this point and likely will in the majors to some degree. Lee will be a solid defender somewhere on the infield, although I’m not convinced it’ll be at shortstop.
51. Jacob Misiorowski — Milwaukee Brewers (AA)
21 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 46
Misiorowski is a tall right hander with an explosive arsenal. He sits 98 MPH with his fastball, it’s a pitch with good life on it that is amplified by his ability to extend down the mound with a low release point. He has incredible feel for spin, his upper 80s slider can be just as dominant as his fastball and his curveball is no slouch either. Misiorowski has a high-violence delivery that he can struggle to repeat leading to inconsistent shapes and command. I think he’s more likely an elite reliever than he is a starter but the ace potential is undeniable if he can find more strikes.
52. Colt Emerson — Seattle Mariners (A)
18 / LHH / SS
Previous Rank: NR
Emerson turned heads in his pro debut and flashed better than expected raw power. When you look around at what he brings, it’s not unfair to expect a plus or better hit tool. He has plus bat-to-ball skills, a patient approach, a line drive oriented swing, an all fields approach, and now hits the ball hard with consistency. He could stand to elevate more to reach his home run ceiling but his approach could end up working just as well as is. Emerson is more reliable than he is toolsy on defense but I expect him to end up bringing value somewhere on the infield even if it’s not shortstop.
53. Kyle Manzardo — Cleveland Guardians (AAA)
23 / LHH / 1B
Previous Rank: 74
Manzardo had a disappointing (and unlucky) year but found his groove after a mid-season trade to the Guardians and carried that over into the Arizona Fall League. He has a patient approach and plus bat-to-ball skills which have let him strikeout at a rate similar to which he walks. He has one of the best swing paths in professional baseball with incredible feel for the sweet spot and a tendancy for pulled flyballs. His improved exit velocities will let him hit for above average home run power. Manzardo is a below average runner limited to first base defensively.
54. Heston Kjerstad — Baltimore Orioles
24 / RHH / OF/1B
Previous Rank: 54
Kjerstad reminded people this year what he can do with the bat when healthy. An all-fields line drive hitter that boasts well above average raw power, he’s a BABIP machine. He also has the barrel feel to still get to above average home run power. Kjerstad has shown the ability to make consistent contact on in zone pitches but will swing and miss when he expands. The problem is that he expands often and is chasing fastballs nearly 40% of the time. His health issues and quick ascent mean he’s still learning to see advanced pitching but it remains a concern for me. Kjerstad is an average defender in a corner outfield spot and has also played some first base.
55. Dalton Rushing — Los Angeles Dodgers (A+)
22 / LHH / C
Previous Rank: 66
Rushing is a passive hitter who gets on base at a great clip due to his walk rate. His bat-to-ball skills are also solid despite a heavy pulled flyball approach. He has the raw power and leverage of it to hit for significant home run power. Rushing moves well and has flashed good framing but still projects as a below average defensive catcher which puts him at a 50 on my field scale.
56. Mason Miller — Oakland Athletics (MLB)
25 / RHP / SP/RP
Previous Rank: 38
Miller has become an even tougher evaluation with news that the Athletics are moving him to the bullpen to help him keep him healthy. I’m going against my usual philosophy and ranking a reliever because I truly believe he can be a 2–3 WAR weapon just as a stopper and the Athletics said they may move him back to a starter role if he can handle a full season workload. His fastball is phenomenal, it has good shape at it’s 98 MPH velocity. His hard slider is also nasty and is a huge swing and miss offering especially when he locates it right. Miller brought back his good cutter against lefties and also has an inconsistent but great changeup. His command and control aren’t his strength but they’re good enough to start, it’s all about his health.
57. Chase Hampton — New York Yankees (AA)
22 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 78
A development hit, the Yankees have prioritized Hampton as a building block of their future rotation. His four-seamer has huge riding action and parks itself at around 94 MPH. Hampton throws two above average breaking balls, a sweeper and a curveball. The Yankees re-introduced his cutter to bridge his breaking balls with his riding fastball better. Hampton is already throwing strikes at a good clip but has starts where his mechanics waver and he loses the zone. He still needs to iron out some of the fine details of pitching (consistency, sequencing, pitch usage) but is projecting as a #2–3 in a rotation.
58. Chase Davis — St. Louis Cardinals (A)
22 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 49
I was incredibly high on Davis coming into the draft as I believe he possessed great offensive framework with a shot to stick in center field. I still believe that to be true even after an underwhelming small pro sample. On the surface it looks like strikeout issues but the underlying contact rates and swing decisions are great. The bigger issue was that his power with a wooden bat didn’t show (something I may have overlooked in my pre-draft evaluation). It’s a concern but I’m still confident it’ll come, he has a big league body with a great track record with metal. The tape I’ve watched would indicate he’s a solid defender in center field but he’s probably more of a natural fit in right field, either way I think he’s a 55 grade defender.
59. Enrique Bradfield Jr — Baltimore Orioles (A+)
22 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 60
Bradfield Jr. runs and defends as well as any professional baseball player in the world. He’s a treat to watch in center field and a prolific base stealer who has the on base skills to nab 70 bags in the majors. Bradfield Jr. has below average raw power and a groundball oriented swing meaning he’s very unlikely to hit for much power. He’s going to walk a lot due to his great plate discipline and has the 65 grade bat-to-ball skills to rarely strikeout. He is projecting for an 80–90 wRC+ with off the charts make-up elsewhere which would make him an above average regular. I know power is exciting but so is a player like this.
60. Andy Pages — Los Angeles Dodgers (AAA)
23 / RHH / OF
Previous Rank: 67
Pages’ season ended in May after he tore his labrum. Very few players hit more flyballs than he does, which is a blessing for home run power but also a curse for running a high average. His uphill swing leaves him vulnerable to swing and miss and pop-ups on pitches up in the zone but he obliterates mistakes for long home runs. He has kept his strikeouts manageable despite his approach thanks to solid bat-to-ball skills and great swing decisions. He’s an average to above average defender in a corner outfield spot. I have conviction that Pages will hit but it’s worth keeping an eye on how his power looks post-surgery.
61. Arjun Nimmala — Toronto Blue Jays (CPX)
18 / RHH / SS
Previous Rank: 72
Already one of my favourite draft prospects, Nimmala impressed scouts and myself with his refined approach in his small sample pro debut. He has a gorgeous swing built for extra base damage and the bat speed and power projection to maximize it. Nimmala has some swing and miss in his game, particularly against breaking balls. Given that he’s quite new to baseball and incredibly young, I’m confident he’ll continue to improve at picking up spin. He’s a good athlete who moves well at shortstop with a plus arm. Depending on his body development he could move to third but he’ll add value somewhere on the infield.
62. Colton Cowser — Baltimore Orioles (AAA)
23 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 42
Cowser has an appealing skill-set but also some issues to iron out. He makes his money on standout plate discipline and an elite feel for the sweet spot. This patience comes with walks but also a lot of 2 strike counts. The latter is a problem considering he has shown plenty of swing and miss, especially against soft stuff down in the zone. He has above average raw power but doesn’t elevate enough to fully utilize it. Cowser improved against lefties this year but he’s still bordering on being a platoon player. He’s a tweener defensively but should add value either in center or a corner spot.
63. Jared Jones — Pittsburgh Pirates (AAA)
22 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 90
Jones is now sitting 96 MPH with his fastball that plays like a huge bat-missing offering seemingly because of his -4.4 vertical approach angle and ability to command it up in the zone. His slider is also a plus pitch and his curveball and changeup do a good job of getting chases given the fastball/slider strength. Jones has improved as a strike thrower this year and has the athleticism and body to continue to do so. It’s a #2 starter upside.
64. Drew Thorpe — San Diego Padres (AA)
23 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 92
The prospect center-piece of a trade for a generational hitter, Thorpe is as high floor of a pitching prospect as they come. His signature changeup posted incredible numbers this year. I worry that changeups can overperform against lower-minor hitters but he continued his dominance with it at Double-A and the pitch is unique enough to truly be THAT good. He added some velocity to his 92 MPH fastball but it’s still an uninspiring pitch that he gets away with due to elite command and control. He uses his slider primarily against righties and it got plenty of swings and misses there. His cutter is below average and used mostly against lefties. Thorpe’s command, control, and overall feel for pitching is the best of any pitcher on this list. He projects as a workhorse #3 with longevity.
65. Samuel Zavala — San Diego Padres (A+)
19 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: 52
Zavala is a young and projectable player who tore up Single-A this year. He’s an incredibly patient hitter who is susceptible to getting beat in the zone. He’s going to strike out some but it’ll come with a big walk rate. He can get overly pull-happy at times but his knack for the barrel is great and he’ll grow into more raw power. He’s not an otherworldly athlete but a good one who will be more than adequate in a corner outfield spot.
66. Victor Scott II — St. Louis Cardinals (AA)
22 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: NR
Scott II led MiLB with 95(!) stolen bases this year and did so with above average production with the bat. In the box, he’s rarely fooled and boasts plus or better bat-to-ball skills. His ability to spoil pitches allows him to get away with expanding the zone at an enormous rate but this is still something he’ll need to cut down on going forward. Scott II is more contact oriented against lefties and will bunt a lot to great success but he’s willing to do damage against righties and hits enough pull-side flyballs to get to 10+ home run power. His offense plays up beyond it’s parts due to his incredible speed and he’s going to add a ton of value on the bases as long as he reaches there often. Unsurprisingly, Scott II defends very well in center field and I’d certainly classify him as a premium defender.
67. Tink Hence — St. Louis Cardinals (AA)
21 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 29
My earlier questions with Hence were “can he handle a bigger workload?” and he did that this year but saw his production slip. His 95 MPH fastball is still a real weapon, getting solid ride from an ultra-flat vertical approach angle. His command of it was shaky this year and it held back the results he got on the pitch. Hence’s breaking balls both backed up this year, his slider lacks the same bite and he practically abandoned his curveball. His changeup however took a step forward, he’s primarily using it against lefties but it tunnels well off his fastball with solid shape. Hence has kept his walks under control and based on his athleticism and 2022 I’d expect his command to bounce-back to at least average next year.
68. Jace Jung — Detroit Tigers (AA)
23 / LHH / 2B
Previous Rank: 64
Jung has above average raw power and hits a ton of pulled flyballs which makes him a big home run threat. There’s swing and miss but Jung’s natural bat-to-ball skills are good enough that he can manage his strikeouts. He can be aggressive when he wants to be but also has shown a willingness to walk. Jung won a Gold Glove in the minors for his work at second base, he’s a reliable defender there but his range can be limiting.
69. Edgar Quero — Chicago White Sox (AA)
20 / Switch / C
Previous Rank: 65
Quero didn’t have a good year but is still young and was rushed to tacked-ball Double-A by the Angels. He’s in a similar mold to Alejandro Kirk offensively and could grow as a defender like he did. Quero hits from both sides of the plate and was better as a righty this year. He has plus bat-to-ball skills and very good plate discipline which lets him run similar strikeout and walk rates. Like Kirk, he has shown above average raw power at times but his flat swing has made it so he struggles to elevate the ball against advanced pitching. This hitting approach works better for a player with speed. Quero is really young and made strides defensively this year, I’m encouraged he can be a net positive on defense one day.
70. Tyler Black — Milwaukee Brewers (AAA)
23 / LHH / 3B/1B
Previous Rank: 62
Black’s plate skills are top of the line. He makes incredible swing decisions and has plus bat-to-ball skills. He gained raw power this year and his feel for the barrel lets him access most of it. He fell back into groundball heavy tendencies at Triple-A but got away with it due to his speed, I still think he’s best as an all fields line drive hitter who can pull a flyball when it calls for it. Black is a fast and savvy baserunner who gets on at a clip that allows him to be a very good base stealer. The Brewers have tried him at third base but he’s not a skilled defender and has a weak arm, he makes more sense at first and that’s probably the plan given that the Brewers have a need there.
71. Jairo Iriarte — San Diego Padres (AA)
22 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: NR
Iriarte saw his average fastball velocity go from 92.5 MPH to 95.4 MPH this year. If he can maintain this velocity or even add another tick as he continues to grow into his frame, it could be a double plus offering for him thanks to how well he extends down the mound and where he releases the pitch. His slider flashes dominance against hitters of both handedness when he’s locating it right and his hard changeup has the shape to be a good offering once he gets more command with it. Iriarte could pitch out of the bullpen tomorrow but he’ll need to keep honing the command and control of his big stuff to profile as an impact starter.
72. Luis Lara — Milwaukee Brewers (A+)
19 / Switch / OF
Previous Rank: 68
Lara is just 5"7 but he’s difficult to pitch to all the same. He displayed 70 grade bat-to-ball skills as well as incredible swing decisions in his affiliate debut as an 18 year old. He is already showing good feel for the sweet spot and his all fields approach makes a lot of sense for the type of hitter he is. Lara has shown he can hit the ball up to 110 MPH but doesn’t do so with consistency and profiles as a hitter who gets to 10–15 home run power at best. He’s a good runner and an instinctual defender in center field with an above average arm.
73. Bryan Ramos — Chicago White Sox (AA)
21 / RHH / 3B
Previous Rank: 73
Ramos figured out Double-A this year and improved on the defensive side of the ball. He has above average exit velocities that will likely be plus by the time he’s in the majors. He gets his power into the air with consistency allowing him to hit for 25 home run power. His pitch recognition is holding him back, he hits fastballs but will chase soft stuff and swing and miss. He has worked hard on his defense and body and is now projecting as an average to above average defender at third base.
74. Noble Meyer — Miami Marlins (A)
18 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 75
Meyer was the consensus top prep arm in the 2023 class and has a promising mix of stuff and projectability. He’s tall and lanky with more velocity to come as he fills out but his sinking fastball is already sitting 94–95 MPH. It has heavy arm-side run and a unique release that lets it keep the ball on the ground and jam hitters. His sweeper is his main out pitch and it’s a very good one. He has shown flashes of a plus changeup but like most high school pitchers he lacks consistent feel for it. His command and control were below average in his small pro debut but should recover with experience and familiarity.
75. Connor Phillips — Cincinnati Reds (MLB)
22 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 77
A pitch data darling, Phillips has work to do in the command and control department before he can realize his ceiling. His arsenal is led by a flat vertical approach 96–97 MPH fastball with riding life. It’s not playing like the swing and miss pitch it should be because of his erratic command of it. His sweeper is an even better pitch and is a true double plus offering so good that he can get away with hanging it over the middle of the plate. His curveball also features good shape but is best used to help him against lefties. Phillips showed improved control at Double-A but it backed up in tougher environments. He can be prone to home runs due to his command and arsenal, a problem that will be exaggerated by Great American Ballpark. He’s very reliever-ish but still could anchor a bullpen if he ends up that way.
76. Matt Shaw — Chicago Cubs (AA)
22 / RHH / SS/2B
Previous Rank: NR
As high floor of a college bat as they come, Shaw showed out in his pro debut. He’s really twitchy at the plate with the quick hands and strong forearms to hit the ball hard where it’s pitched with consistency. He hits frozen ropes to all fields and has got his power into games with regularity both at Maryland and in his pro debut. Shaw hasn’t seen a pitch he doesn’t like and up to this point he’s getting away with it. It’s something that he’ll certainly need to tighten up as he pushes up to the big leagues. Shaw runs well and has great base stealing instincts. He’s a bit undersized for a shortstop and fits best at second base given his lacking arm.
77. Tekoah Roby — St. Louis Cardinals (AA)
22 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: NR
Roby has the stuff and the strike throwing to profile as a mid-rotation arm. His fastball is 93–95 MPH and plays above it’s velocity. His curveball is a true knee-buckling hammer with an outstanding movement profile. His changeup also flashes plus but he’s still working on the consistency of it from start to start. Roby will mix in a slider as a different look primarily against righties. He dealt with a shoulder injury this year but came back with the stuff intact and still throwing strikes at a great rate.
78. Denzel Clarke — Oakland Athletics (AA)
23 / RHH / OF
Previous Rank: 96
Clarke is older and needs to prove he can play a full season but his combination of power and defense remain appealing all the same. His trademark at the dish is huge raw power that he accesses regularly. He improved his hit tool outlook this year by making better swing decisions and more consistent contact. He’s still striking out more than you’d like but improved that throughout the season. Clarke is routinely out in front looking to pull the ball which helps his power play but gives him less time for pitch recognition and swing decisions. If you look solely at his frame, you’d be skeptical that Clarke can play center field but he’s hyper-athletic and has a strong arm.
79. Orelvis Martinez — Toronto Blue Jays (AAA)
22 / RHH / 3B/2B
Previous Rank: 79
An extreme flyball hitter who pulls the ball as much as anyone, Martinez has consistently hit for 30 home run power as a younger minor leaguer. He brushed up hit tool concerns this year as he improved his plate discipline without sacrificing his natural aggressiveness in the zone. He also made more contact on soft stuff and his no stride approach with two strikes helped him cut down his strikeouts. He fell back into old habits a bit after a Triple-A promotion but that’s not too unusual for a young routine oriented hitter. Currently a below average defender, Martinez has the arm strength and range that fits best at third but his arm stroke and lacking internal clock fits better at second.
80. Moises Ballesteros — Chicago Cubs (AA)
20 / LHH / C
Previous Rank: 99
Ballesteros is a newly 20 year old catcher who has produced all the way up to Double-A. He has advanced plate skills and walked significantly more than he struck out at Single-A. He has also shown flashes of above average raw power especially against fastballs with the approach that could get it into games with regularity. Ballesteros’ fitness figures to be a big focus in 2024. If he can slim down he could improve his athleticism in the box, his outlook behind the plate, and not clog the bases as much as he does now. He has a solid feel for the finer details of catching but his fitness lets him down with blocking. I’m more leniant with his body at this point than some evaluators because he’s still so young.
81. Luis Baez — Houston Astros (A)
19 / RHH / OF
Previous Rank: 84
Baez dominated Rookie Ball and held his own at Single-A as a teenager. He has an advanced feel for accessing his already plus raw power due to a swing geared for loft. He makes plenty of contact on fastballs but is easily fooled by spin and will expand the zone and whiff often against it. He’ll need to clean this up as he faces better pitching. Baez moves well enough to play a solid corner outfield and has the arm to profile in right field.
82. Tommy Troy — Arizona Diamondbacks (A+)
21 / RHH / SS/2B
Previous Rank: NR
Troy showed off the hit tool and barrel feel that made him a star at Stanford and did so while playing through a fractured foot. He makes more contact and better swing decisions than his small sample 26.3% strikeout rate would suggest. Troy can still get over-aggressive at times and his pull-heavy approach means he has less time to make decisions than other hitters. Despite this, his willingness to swing early in the count lets him access his power with relative ease and consistency. His best defensive fit is second base which he has played in college and profiles at better than shortstop. Troy is a stolen base threat and projects to be capable of 20–20 seasons in his best years.
83. Bubba Chandler — Pittsburgh Pirates (AA)
20 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: NR
When it comes to pitching prospects I have a type. Athletic and projectable arms with a bat-missing fastball. Chandler fits the bill as a former two-way player who is now focusing only on pitching. Like most two-way players, his velocity ticked up once he dropped the bat and his fastball sat 95–96 MPH with big induced vertical break. He sells his changeup well and it has the late-break to get plenty of groundballs. He has a slider/cutter that has shown promise but has yet to take the big jump necessary to be a true put-a-way pitch. Chandler’s command and control was erratic but significantly improved as the year went on. Given his athleticism and that it was his first year as a full time starter, I’m projecting him for above average command and control.
84. AJ Smith-Shawver — Atlanta Braves (MLB)
21 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 47
AJSS exploded out of the gate this year but found roadblocks ahead. He sits 94–95 MPH with his fastball, the shape backed up in the majors but he gets significant ride and carry on it. He’ll need to locate his heater up in the zone better to get swings and misses against advanced hitters. I prefer his slider to his curveball, it’s a swing and miss offering and also does a good job of jamming hitters. His changeup was outstanding in a very small MLB sample and needs to become a more consistent weapon for him. AJSS is control over command right now but both could stand to improve.
85. Chase Dollander — Colorado Rockies (CPX)
21 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 85
A 2022 standout that lost his footing last year, it’ll be up to the Rockies to get Dollander back on track. He still has a great fastball but he’ll need to rely on it less than he did in college. It’s a mid 90s weapon that he spots well and plays above it’s shape due to a really flat vertical approach angle. His slider/cutter took a step back this year but it still got whiffs partially thanks to a good tunnel. His arm action sells his changeup well but the shape could improve and his curveball is okay but inconsistent. Most scouts seem to think his struggles this year were due to inconsistencies in his mechanics that led to command and control regression but I’d argue his stuff was worse too. He has still got the body and make-up of an MLB starter and I can’t ignore the pedigree.
86. Kevin Alcantara — Chicago Cubs (AA)
21 / RHH / OF
Previous Rank: NR
Alcantara almost made the list last summer but his strong rest of season vaulted him onto it this time around. There’s obvious comparisons to the Yankees’ Spencer Jones with his huge raw power, athleticism, and 6"6 frame. Alcantara is younger and is showing a better hit tool than Jones at the same levels which is why he’s a couple spots ahead. Alcantara’s long-levers lead to swing and miss especially when he expands the zone but he has kept his strikeout rate in check. The next progression is to reel back his aggressive approach and pick his spots to do damage better. He’s not the baserunner that Jones is but Alcantara has the range and arm to play a good center field if his big frame holds up.
87. Miguel Bleis — Boston Red Sox (A)
19 / RHH / OF
Previous Rank: 94
Bleis had a disappointing year that ended early with shoulder surgery but still possesses one of the higher ceilings you’ll see on this list. Despite not being a huge guy, Bleis has plus bat speed and long and powerful arms that let him hit for big raw power. He makes lots of contact against fastballs but he’s prone to chasing spin and will swing and miss when he does so. This is a trait he needs to show significant improvement in. He runs very well and projects as a plus defender in center field with 30+ stolen base potential. The tools are huge but the floor will remain low until he proves he is healthy and can hit affiliate pitching.
88. Spencer Jones — New York Yankees (AA)
22 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: NR
Jones is still raw at 22 years old but has off the charts athleticism for his 6"6 frame that makes him one to keep an eye on. He boasts massive raw power to all fields but the vast majority of it comes on the ground and on a line. He is prone to mishits and his long-levers have him whiffing at big rates in the zone as well as when he goes fishing for breaking balls (too often). His swing decisions in general are poor and a big factor in his rough K/BB and pedestrian production. Jones isn’t agile but he’s fast when he gets moving and is a good base stealer. I evaluated his outfield defense as good enough to play center field into his late 20s. Jones has a lot of improving to do rather quickly but I’m betting on the athletically driven upside and ranking him.
89. Mick Abel — Philadelphia Phillies (AA)
22 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 76
I feel like I write the same thing for Abel every time. Great stuff but the control needs to improve. His mid 90s fastball is a coveted swing and miss heater. His “slurve” curveball is a plus pitch on paper and it plays like one too. He experimented with a hard slider and settled on using it against righties and his changeup flashes above average. The Phillies have tried many things with Abel but his walk rates remain poor and the production lags as a result. I’m giving him till my next list update before I start projecting him as a reliever.
90. Aidan Miller — Philadelphia Phillies (A)
19 / RHH / 3B
Previous Rank: UR
Miller was my #4 ranked high school bat in the 2023 class and showed encouraging underlying promise in his pro debut. He has thunderous bat speed and natural loft in his swing, a potent combination for hitting home runs. He already showed plus high-end exit velocities at Single-A and a patient approach that allowed him to walk at a high clip. Miller wasn’t seen as a hit tool first prospect but he showed promising bat-to-ball skills early on. The Phillies will play him at shortstop for a while but the general consensus is he’s a better long term fit at third base given his size and arm.
91. Thayron Liranzo — Los Angeles Dodgers (A)
20 / Switch / C
Previous Rank: 98
A sneaky inclusion on my last list, Liranzo continued to mash well into the fall giving me even more conviction that he could be a future star. A switch hitter, Liranzo’s power stroke is better as a lefty but he hit well from both sides of the plate. He had an average exit velocity of 91.7 MPH which is already above average for an MLB player. He has beyond his years feel for accessing his raw power, evidenced by his 24 home runs and gaudy 29.6% HR/FB%. Liranzo has run a high walk rate due to a patient approach. He swings and misses frequently and may have to tone down his pull-heavy approach for plate coverage sake. Still just 20 years old, it’s hard to say if Liranzo can stick at catcher. He seems adequate for now but needs to keep improving while maintaining his body. I’ve grouped him with Basallo as a part time catcher (50 grade).
92. Marco Luciano — San Francisco Giants (MLB)
21 / RHH / SS
Previous Rank: 93
Luciano has struggled to live up to his hype but is still young with the tools to be an impact player. Back issues have hurt his power outlook a bit but he still crushes the ball to all fields with regularity. His approach is also an advanced one with above average swing decisions. Luciano’s issues are of the swing and miss variety and they’re big hurdles. His lengthy swing and coordination isn’t there right now and he’s likely going to need more Triple-A seasoning before he can hit MLB pitching. He still makes this list because he looks the part of a good shortstop again, it had seemed like a foregone conclusion he would move to third base (and still could to be clear).
93. Sebastian Walcott — Texas Rangers (A+)
17 / RHH / SS
Previous Rank: 86
Walcott is ranked not for production but his athletic gifts. He’s tall with huge bat speed and an advanced feel for elevating so unsurprisingly people are really excited about his power projection. Walcott struck out a lot but his bat-to-ball skills are fine. It’s that he’s undisciplined and sells out for pull-side power meaning he’s easily dealt with by throwing breaking balls away. He’s prone to pressing and will need to develop a better feel for what pitchers are trying to do to him. Walcott was billed as a good defensive shortstop but seems to already be outgrowing the position and may fit better at third.
94. Henry Lalane — New York Yankees (CPX)
19 / LHP / SP
Previous Rank: NR
Lalane is the only player on this list to not yet play affiliated baseball and even more noticeably he’s a pitcher. I took notice of him on August 4th when he struck out 8 batters through 3 innings against the FCL Blue Jays. From there, the more research I did, the more conviction I got that he’s going to be a star. He’s a 6"7 teenager with room to fill out and is already throwing 95 MPH with regularity. This isn’t empty velocity either, he gets elite extension and it’s coming from an oddly low slot for his height. He has a nasty sweeping slider that he can throw to lefties and righties which looks remiscent to Tiedemann’s on film. Lalane also has an unusually advanced changeup for a 19 year old flamethrower which he sells well out of the hand. The cherry on top is his impressive coordination, a pitcher of this size and age with a 4.5% BB% is a complete outlier. There’s a long way to go but Lalane is the coveted combination of advanced with a high ceiling.
95. Brock Wilken — Milwaukee Brewers (AA)
21 / RHH / 3B
Previous Rank: NR
Even in a smaller sample, Wilken showed potential in two specific areas that had me lower on him pre-draft. I knew he was going to walk and I knew he was going to mash and he continued to do both in pro ball. What impressed me was that his contact increases in his last year of college carried over to pro ball, raising his ceiling significantly. He’s still going to strike out but it has his hit tool looking like a 50–55 rather than a 45–50. Wilken also showed improvements in his athleticism and mobility over at third base. I was expecting him to have to move first but he looks like he could stick there as a fringe defender.
96. Luisangel Acuna — New York Mets (AA)
21 / RHH / SS/2B
Previous Rank: 71
Acuna is a slick defender and standout baserunner who has an overestimated offensive reputation. He aims to put the ball in play on offense and is aggressive with above average bat-to-ball skills. As a fast all fields hitter who hasn’t shown he can elevate with authority, he’s better off not turning into the pushed flyball hitter he was once he got traded to the Mets. Acuna steals bags like his brother and has the defensive make-up to be a plus defender at second base or an above average one at shortstop.
97. Cam Collier — Cincinnati Reds (A)
19 / LHH / 3B
Previous Rank: 95
Collier was merely average in his first full pro season, one that he played at just 18 years old. He made more contact than most expected him to with his signature raw power numbers to pair. His swing decisions were a contributing factor in his struggles but weren’t too bad for someone his age. The big issue was with elevating the ball, possibly stemming from his difficulties with getting jammed inside. A slow power hitter who hits lots of groundballs is a rough archetype but given his youth it’s not an uncommon problem to see fixed. Collier gets a bad rap defensively because of his size but actually fields third base quite well thanks to his instincts and arm.
98. Jakob Marsee — San Diego Padres (AA)
22 / LHH / OF
Previous Rank: NR
Marsee saw himself win Arizona Fall League MVP after an insane .391/.509/.707 campaign. He’s a contact machine who walked more than he struck out this year at High-A and he also showed he can hit for home run power especially to end the season. Marsee’s steady flyball rate and just good enough exit velocities let me project him to get to 14–18 home run power. He’s not the explosive athlete you look for in center field but his routes and instincts are outstanding. His plus instincts translate to the bases as he stole 46 bags this year. Marsee could end up getting platooned some against lefties but he is profiling as a lower risk big league regular.
99. Alex Ramirez — New York Mets (A+)
20 / RHH / OF
Previous Rank: 97
I’m writing a whole essay in defense of this placement because he’s coming off a 78 wRC+ and I know you’re probably skeptical.
Everyone who does this has that one guy that they won’t quit and for me that’s Alex Ramirez. He has big bat speed and the tall slender projectable frame for even more power. He’s still a touch aggressive but improved his swing decisions this year allowing him to walk more. His long levers and mechanics raise concerns about his ability to make contact with certain pitch types but his contact rates were a tick above average this year. If all of this is good then why was he so bad? I have a few “theories” that all seem fixable to varying degrees. There’s some issues with pop flies and based on his very poor HR/FB% he seems to be having trouble making his best contact in the air despite a healthy flyball rate. This is exaggerated by the Brooklyn Cyclones park being a very difficult place to hit home runs. Ramirez also has a pre-swing bat wrap that could be a factor in his ability to get his best swing off consistently. His BABIP and HR/FB% are an indication he got quite unlucky and this was backed up by anecdotal evidence. Perhaps this is a case where I’m missing something but the Mets protecting Ramirez from the Rule 5 draft despite poor production at High-A is a good sign that I’m on the right track. I would be amiss if I didn’t mention that Ramirez improved as a defender this year and tracks as an above average defender in center field. There’s a possibility he adds on too much weight and loses his plus speed but looking at his frame, he has a ways to go before he’s at that point.
This is all a very lengthy way to say that I believe Ramirez still has his 5 tool potential intact and is young enough that giving up on him could quickly prove to be a mistake. With that being said, he’ll be quick to fall off the list if he doesn’t produce this year.
100. Daniel Espino — Cleveland Guardians (AA)
23 / RHP / SP
Previous Rank: 100
This ranking is a placeholder for Espino because he has not thrown a game pitch since April of 2022. He underwent capsule surgery on his right shoulder in 2023 after an injury ravaged 2022 that included a knee issue and shoulder issue. Espino had the making of the best pitching prospect in baseball but this can be a career ender so you have to bear in mind we may never see that pitcher again. If you haven’t heard of Espino: he had a high 90s fastball with elite shape, two plus to plus-plus breaking balls and showed good command and control. The waiting game continues.
Fell off the list:
69. Brayan Rocchio — Cleveland Guardians (MLB)
22 / Switch / SS
Reasoning: I have never been high on Rocchio and admittedly over-ranked him due to industry consensus. The more I learn about him the more I don’t buy the hitting profile at all.
70. Joey Ortiz — Baltimore Orioles (AAA)
25 / RHH / SS
Reasoning: Ortiz limped into the off-season and was already a fringey addition to the list. He has good exit velocities at AAA but he chases so much that he may have trouble getting himself in positions to do damage in the big leagues. He’s also 25 and the Orioles don’t seem to trust him over Jorge Mateo.
81. Gavin Stone — Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB)
25 / RHP / SP
Reasoning: I can still a see a solid MLB starter but there’s so much pressure on his command and secondaries given his fastball. His changeup is the kind of pitch that might make him a late bloomer but it’s hard to justify a 25 year old coming off a disappointing year as a Top 100 guy.
84. Gabriel Gonzalez — Seattle Mariners (A+)
19 / LHH / OF
Reasoning: This isn’t me giving up on Gonzalez but he was only #84 and had a really rough end to the season. I’m skeptical of his power projection given his exit velocities and angles and his aggressiveness caught up to him at High-A. Reports of declining athleticism and outfield range doesn’t help his case.
88. Everson Pereira — New York Yankees (MLB)
22 / RHH / OF
Reasoning: I was well aware of the hit tool concerns but I still think I overlooked them. The track record of bad K/BB is a long one and I don’t see how it improves enough for him to access his great power like he needs to.
90. Ceddanne Raffaela — Boston Red Sox (MLB)
23 / LHH / OF
Reasoning: As good as Raffaela is defensively, he was exactly what I worried he’d be in his small MLB sample. I see him as a useful player but his bat weighing him down enough to fall off the list.
92. Yanquiel Fernandez — Colorado Rockies (AA)
21 / LHH / OF
Reasoning: Fernandez still has his trademark power but he didn’t show any improvement at Double-A as the season progressed. If he can prove he has the hit tool to get to his power against advanced pitching he’ll rejoin the list.
