Donald Trump’s Most Vicious Supporters: Just 1/5 of 1/3 of 1/4 of America. Feel Better?

Trump’s Success so far Indicts our System, but not the American People

Of the 15 states that have voted so far, Donald Trump has not hit 50% in a single one. He has topped 40% in only three, including two of last night’s 11 contests. Yes, he is still first in the RCP average of national polls, but with just 35.6% of support in a crowded field.

Let’s note that in a January Gallup poll, only 26% of Americans identified as Republicans (just as only 29% are Democrats). This means that, although Trump appears to be crushing the field, his support is barely one third of one quarter of America.

Many folks were horrified by a recent YouGov poll that showed nearly 20% of Trump’s supporters think that Lincoln should have never freed the slaves. It’s definitely worth asking: Why do people with those views flock to Trump? What is it about him? But we can can comfort ourselves with this reminder: That rabid core is only one fifth of one third of one quarter — which translates to about 1.8% of America.

The most horrifying 20% of Trump’s supporters are really just 1.8% of America. And all of Trump’s supporters are just 10% of America.

There’s no denying Trump’s sustained, runaway success this primary season, but what that reveals about the American people is actually relatively limited. (Throwing Cruz into the mix, if he also horrifies you, only changes this slightly — not quite 20% of America, rather than 10%.)

Feel better? I do.

That said, I’m sure many will reply, “Yes, but he can still be president!”

Trump will likely be nominated for president by one of America’s only two major parties. That is a terrifying, internationally embarrassing, and increasingly probably scenario. If it happens, he will then likely receive support in the general election from many people who can’t stand him but who hate the idea of voting for a Democrat even more.

I don’t think he has a realistic shot in November, though he will get over 40% of the vote. But let’s assume for a moment that he does win. He will be the worst president in U.S. history, and I’m terrified. But he won’t have a mandate from the people, he won’t have the political capital to pressure Congress, and he’ll be stuck to one term. His victory will never be complete or final. Even in the depths of a Trump nadir, we will still be able to comfort ourselves with the facts that nearly the entire nation will detest our morally (and frequently fiscally) bankrupt president, that his vitriol will say little about our own spirit, and that his election will represent not the values or politics of our people but rather our broken process. More people than it may seem like today will fight him every step of the way, limiting his abilities, and he will be kicked out ASAP. We’ll rebuild. It will be a disgusting, scary, and painful low point, but by no means an end point.

I think that Trump’s success despite his bigotry says something horrible about the state of our political system, but given its limits, not about the American people. And that makes me feel at least a little bit better.