Western Canada provinces likely to benefit from high immigration targets
The latest Desjardins economic report reveals that increased immigration targets in Canada are likely to positively influence the Western provinces’ economies. Immigrants have continually surpassed workers born in Canada in new positions and account for 70% of the gains in employment. As a matter of fact, rates of employment for fresh immigrants were higher than the workers born in Canada in almost all provinces by 2019.
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The gains were not greatly influenced by the pandemic. The employment of fresh immigrants surged during this period. It assisted in closing the gap between the rate of unemployment of fresh immigrants and workers born in Canada. It stood in 2022 at 5.35 versus 5%.
The report further elaborates that fresh immigrants in diverse regions in Canada have prospective extensive economic outcomes. It is applicable both during the likely economic slump ahead and consequent recovery. The Bank of Canada has projected a GDP growth of slightly above 1% for Canada in 2023. It is in comparison with the 3.6% in 2022.
Provinces benefitting from Immigration
The report has harmonized economic results for each province depending on factors corresponding to the Immigration Levels Plan. For instance, it has estimated the economies of the provinces with varying increased intakes of immigrants in the next 3 years. This also includes the average % of fresh immigrants settling in every province and the manner of integration of immigrants into the economy over diverse periods of time. It includes current times and pre-pandemic.
The maximum immigration-related economic benefits resulting from increased national targets have been projected by the report; given the current immigration, trends are consistent. The beneficiary provinces are in Prairie regions, British Columbia, and Prince Edward Island.
If Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta can allure a higher proportion of fresh immigrants, these provinces can witness a major boost of 0.6 to 0.3% points in their GDP. This can be achieved by these provinces by developing a secure economic ambiance and enhanced affordability for attracting an increased % of fresh immigrants in the future.
Higher employment rates and more job openings are chief factors in alluring and retaining immigrants in any province. However, a higher employment rate individually does not greatly impact the GDP of a province.
Only if fresh immigrants settle for a long term and make contributions to the local economy through everyday expenses, is the provincial economy strengthened by immigration. The prospective economic contribution due to immigration has higher potential when the immigration intake of the province constitutes a considerable % of the current population. Further, they must also be able to effortlessly integrate into the local labor market.
New immigrants performing well due to federal policy
Economists have attributed the enhanced performance of new immigrants in the labor market to federal policy. The Government of Canada enhanced the number of PR Visa holders during the pandemic by offering ITAs to more overseas students and temporary foreign workers. It implied that most of the fresh PR Visa holders were residing in Canada already and possessed experience in Canada easing their integration and entry into the labor market.
The report further elaborates that provinces having higher populations (assessed by consumption of oil) commenced 2020 with greater economic momentum and tight labor markets. It implied increased labor scarcity during the pandemic that prompted several companies to recruit new immigrants.
Conclusion
The report concludes that only immigration targets prospectively assist the economy of Canada however are not adequate for ensuring major economic benefits. It advises that Canada continues emphasizing invitations to immigrants having in-demand skills.
Canada has 100 plus economic immigration programs for fresh immigrants and several among them are the PNP — Provincial Nominee Programs. Every territory and province can choose candidates who have skills beneficial to the local economy through the PNP. It excludes Nunavut and Quebec. These immigration programs frequently offer ITAs to candidates who can assist in combating scarcity of labor like those in healthcare, skilled trades, or tech.
Also, there are various immigration programs that are aimed at broader Canadian regions such as the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot Program and the Atlantic Immigration Program. Candidates are provided major support from the employers through these programs like healthcare access and services for settlement.
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