How Systemic Problem solvers Map Socio-Technological Transitions, Considering Path Dependency (Pt.2)
From past decisions to the present.
Can the reorientation programme, the new practices, markets, and countries economic and political landscape be entirely new? Surely not.
For two reasons. First, we need to use past literature. Second, because all socio-technological systems have Path Dependence. It means historical contingent events and self-reinforce mechanisms and processes that “lock in” particular pathways of development.
The basic theory to path dependency is that it is a product of a selforganizing process where some small initial event — may be arbitrary in nature — comes through positive feedback to create a lock-in effect (Geels, 2004, 2008)
To think of examples we can simply look at the energy and transport systems of our countries. It has been hard and costly for enterprises and governments to change the energy matrix of fossil fuels. The physical structure or “stocks” constructed, the tanks of gasoline, transportation, and the technologies developed for the oil extraction.
All these actions and decisions made about energy and infrastructure systems in the past, now limit the current sets of decisions and the conversions to more renewable and less degradant sorts of energy and transportation.
These past choices were made when gas emissions were not yet recognised as a problem to ecosystems. Now, they have locked governments and organisations into a given paradigm that’s expensive to get out of.
Lock in Effects and Transition costs
As we discussed, Path dependency creates contingencies and technological ‘lock-ins’ which prevent innovation that disrupts the status quo. Lock-ins are reinforced by positive feedback responsible for the Network effects (Geels, 2008).
It means that once an industry has grown to maturity, there are a lot of sunk costs. This is not just in terms of the fixed assets of a company but also :
- in the education and training of personnel
- new mindsets
- organizational hierarchies
- New methods of management
- new software
Have you ever had to change equipment because it no longer can be used in new technology? Such as LP music, cd rooms, and notebooks that don't accept Windows 8 or 10, get rid of your phone because your Android has no more actualisations.
These lock-ins are much simpler to deal with than the carbon lock-in below:
This lock-in effect leads to negative externalities and inertia. The result is a particular course of events that are difficult to change in the future (Geels, 2008). We can clearly see these difficulties with every new climate agreement or conference. Actors resist and try to avoid responsibility, as we discussed here.
One of the reasons is that all elements of infrastructure and energy systems will have to change and be affected to break the carbon lock-in. This will be costly and need all parts of society involved, including modifying other systems (political, cultural, social) since they co-evolve and are interdependent
Concluding Remarks:
Path dependence means that it is often easier to simply continue upon a pre-existing suboptimal path than to create an entirely new one.
In other words, the present is never a clean slate, instead, there is typically some socio-technical regime that we are locked into and getting out of it will be costly. Path dependence has huge implications for transitions as it creates inertia to change and lock-in reinforced by network effects (Next conversation).
References:
Multi-Level Perspective on System Innovation: Relevance for Industrial Transformation (Frank Geels, 2008).
Multi-level perspective guide, By Systems Innovations> https://media2-production.mightynetworks.com/asset/36886645/Multi-Level_Mapping.pdf_gl=1*o5z442*_ga*NDM5MTgxODk2LjE2MTkzNDQ5NzE.*_ga_T49FMYQ9FZ*MTY1NjY1MjEyNi4yMTcuMS4xNjU2NjUyMTY2LjA.
