2015’s Best Reads in Foreign Policy
This list, curated by our writers and friends, gives you the best of what you might have missed in 2015.
How World War III became possible | by Max Fisher
Drawing on the history of World War I, Max Fisher makes an ambitious, timely, and persuasive argument that WWIII is more possible than we realize and would unfold in much the same way as WWI — because of an interlocking web of defense pacts (in this case, NATO’s Article V, stating that an attack on one is an attack on all). The article is skillfully researched, including author interviews with Russian defense officials and think tank experts. Fisher documents the shift in Russian strategic thinking since the end of the Cold War, specifically the development of “Hybrid War,” and the several scenarios under which Russian President Vladimir Putin would seek to test NATO’s Article V to its breaking point.
“That it is entirely foreseeable does little to reduce the risk,” Fisher writes ominously.
The dangers of Obama’s incrementalism | by Fareed Zakaria
In this November article, Fareed Zakaria warns against President Obama’s pattern of small, incremental actions in response to the Syrian Civil War. Reminiscent of the step-by-step slide to war in Vietnam, Zakaria writes that this incrementalism is a dangerous trap resulting from the belief that we need to do something — even if it has little chance of success.
The Past as Prologue: The Future of the U.S. Military in One Graphic | by Daniel Sukman
America’s military capabilities are an indispensable aspect of U.S. foreign policy, as a “hard power” bargaining chip in diplomatic negotiations, as a tool for spreading “smart power” influence, and as a structure for providing “soft power” disaster relief. In this insightful piece, Army strategist Daniel Sukman explains that commanders prepare for “two scenarios: the most likely and most dangerous.” It’s a reminder to foreign policymakers to learn from history, but more importantly to look ahead and predict the challenges we will face in the future.
Do the BRICS Still Matter? | a CSIS report by Marcos Degaut
This October report of the CSIS Americas Program makes a strong argument that the “BRICS” (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) — once heralded as the bloc of emerging powers that would collectively remake the world order — was nothing more than a marketing term, and that it is now used loosely to refer to emerging markets generally. The report, published amidst the establishment of the BRICS Bank, tries to make the case that the BRICS have failed to build an infrastructure commensurate with their political stature. Although the BRICS may yet prove Marcos Degaut wrong, he has produced a blistering critique of a foreign policy assumption held throughout the West for nearly two decades.
Turkish Awakening: Behind the Scenes of Modern Turkey | by Alev Scott
This is a second edition of Alev Scott’s popular debut book, updated with a new chapter covering events since the Gezi Park protests. It is a highly readable, page-turning portrayal of modern Turkey, part journalistic account of the Arab Spring and its aftereffects, part traveler’s history of the ways in which Turkey is changing before our eyes. Turkish Awakening is likely to become a touchstone book for all those studying Turkey and the region as they try to understand the complex politics driving Turkey’s decision-making.
Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and Faith in the New China | by Evan Osnos
(Yes, this came out in December 2014, but the paperback edition came out in May — and it’s still worth a read.) The New Yorker’s China correspondent from 2008 to 2013, Evan Osnos treats China like an investigative report in this widely praised contemporary history of China. It is an attempt to explain China to the newcomer, through the fascinating stories of China’s most “ambitious” individuals, from dissident artist Ai Weiwei to Taiwanese defector Justin Lin. For those hoping to grasp an early understanding of China, this is an indispensable — and enjoyable — read.
Is the American Century Over? | by Joseph S. Nye
As Russia’s economy wobbles under U.S. sanctions and China’s and Brazil’s begin to slow, Joseph Nye (who earned his place in the annals of international relations with “soft power”) offers a compelling reminder that America is still the world’s military and economic leader. Although short, Nye’s latest work is an estimable addition to his 25 years’ worth of books and articles challenging American “declinism” and those The Economist has called “America’s premature obituarists.”
Lights Out: A Cyberattack, A Nation Unprepared, Surviving the Aftermath | by Ted Koppel
In this shrewd report, Ted Koppel — one of America’s most preeminent journalists — makes clear just how unprepared the U.S. is to manage a cyberattack. As Koppel writes, several nations are capable of launching such an attack at any time, making it more of an inevitability than just a possibility. Worse, the U.S. has no plan in place to respond to the blackouts, bank crashes, and much else that would result. The book is a wake-up call to present and future policymakers, who must anticipate future challenges and advocate the necessary preparations.
Russia and the New World Disorder | by Bobo Lo
Dr. Bobo Lo, an associate fellow at Chatham House, highlights the difference between Russia’s perceptions and real capabilities in this policy memo-cum-prediction of things to come. It is an insightful take from one of the West’s leading Russia scholars on the different tracks Russia’s foreign policy can take, and the results of each. As Russia continues to position itself at the center of world affairs — from annexing Crimea to joining the Syrian civil war — policymakers should look at the world from the Kremlin’s point of view and assess Russian strategic thinking from the inside out. This book does exactly that.
Once in a while we need a reminder of books we might have on the shelf and haven’t gotten to yet. This list is what our writers have been reading this year. In these books, you’ll find lessons to relearn and stories worth retelling.
Debating China: The U.S.-China Relationship in Ten Conversations | edited by Nina Hachigian
This is the first “good read” that comes to mind. It is a collection of letters exchanged between American and Chinese scholars, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and others, debating the ten “hottest” issues in U.S.-China relations. The letter-writers do not hold back, and the result is a raw exchange of ideas on everything from human rights to regional security to Pacific trade. It is a two-way window into the discussions held at the highest levels, revealing the hopes and frustrations of both the Americans and the Chinese.
— from Denis Muftic, our Contributor on Asia
Lessons in Disaster: McGeorge Bundy and the Path to War in Vietnam | by Gordon M. Goldstein
Based on previously unreleased letters and author interviews, this in-depth account is as much a posthumous mea culpa by McGeorge Bundy, a principal architect of the Vietnam War, as it is a policy review by the author. Gordon Goldstein does not shy away from asserting his own conclusions, namely that the war was a tragedy of errors that should never have been fought. But it also shines a light on Bundy’s own thinking — Goldstein was his research assistant — and provides critical lessons in cutting off a mistaken “path to war.”
— from Ryan Migeed, our Editor-in-Chief
Dancing in the Glory of Monsters: The Collapse of the Congo and the Great War of Africa | by Jason Stearns
Jason Stearns does a masterful job explaining the complex politics of post-Rwandan genocide Congo. Largely forgotten by the international community, the civil war Stearns describes is known as Africa’s World War and caused the deaths of millions of Congolese. This book is a critical read for anyone who desires to understand the continent better.
— from Hannah Tuttle, our Contributor on Africa
