BIG SLATE QUICK HITS NBA 11.16.2018
Miami vs Indiana
Miami’s “Four Factor” stats have benefited from a soft early schedule. To their credit they’ve gotten the job done against weaker opponents but can’t seem to put together a solid performance against any decent teams.
Looking at the previous match-up against the Pacers, the Heat only put up 102 points which is under their implied total for of 104 for tonight’s game.
Splurging on Whiteside is enticing given his upside and some stellar performances but he’s 6th on the team in usage and for a team that doesn’t put up points he’ll need to go off on ancillary stats for him to reach that 5x value we all crave. There are better options in that price range (and cheaper) for Center tonight so anything other than a standout game is going to tank your roster.
The Pacers haven’t played since Sunday and their coach has stated publicly that they aren’t playing fast enough to his liking. They are sitting at 28th (via NBA Stats) in Pace so uh, he’s definitely not wrong in that regard. If they do try to push the pace that devalues Myles Turner even further and might add surprising value to Bogdanovic and Sabonis. Does a 6 day break and the mere desire of pushing the pace actually get implemented and executed? It helps that Miami plays at an above average pace but McMillan hasn’t been know for pushing the game and given roster constraints I’m not extremely bullish that the Pacers became a space and pace team.
Collison @ $5k is enticing but McMillan’s “minutes split” between Corey Joseph is annoying #advancedstats. I think he gets close to 30 against Miami and worth a sprinkle if you are doing multi-entry.
Jazz vs 76ers
My projections always loves Simmons. My heart and brain tell me that Simmons and Butler shared a lot of court time and they are still sorting out the mechanics of the lineup post-Butler trade.
I don’t think the Gobert vs Embiid match-up eats up either players’ value. Embiid has been running with the 2nd unit and will get his numbers.
I’ll wait to see how Brett Brown sorts this revamped roster out before I splurge on Simmons and Butler. Redick has been solid over the past 2 outings and is projected to get mid-30 minutes and at his price-tag might worth inserting.
Raptors @ Celtics
Raptors have a had a difficult time this season dealing with the top Offensive teams this year. The good news is that no team can truly shutdown a premier offense when it is clicking and they are facing the 2018 Celtics.
Stevens has been consistent with his minutes and both games on this back-to-back are at Home so I don’t think this effects minutes.
The Celtics are going to play their starting five. Their slow starts out of the gate can be frustrating but the Celtics need to gather as much data on this lineup to know if they can actually contend for a championship this season.
The optimistic take on the Celtics is that they started the season with two essential pieces of the team coming back from injury and trying to sort this out with a brutal schedule that included an extended 8 day 5 game road trip wasn’t ideal for them.
As a general rule of thumb, if Kawhi is in the lineup and Lowry’s price is going to be this high I will be staying away from Lowry. When the two teams played in the second game of the season Kawhi torched the Celtics with nearly 38% Usage, 31 Points and 10 Boards. Couple that with the Celtics knack of letting one guy a night go bananas on them and you got yourself a decent chance of Kawhi going off.
Nets @ Wizards
Both Jarrett Allen and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are questionable. With Allen out Ed Davis got the start but only got 17 minutes which really did me no favors and if Allen is actually in he hasn’t been worth the roster spot.
John Wall’s minutes are still productive but Coach Brooks has stated that he does want to cut back on his minutes. He still projects to mid 30s and the additional rest might even improve his game (hot take).
Kings @ Memphis
Memphis’ DefRtg @ Home is 101 vs 108.1 on the road.
Memphis creates turnovers and doesn’t give the ball away. Those both held true when these two teams met earlier in the season as Memphis forced the Kings to turn the ball over on nearly 17% of their possession (per Cleaning the Glass) in a game that the Kings came back to win.
It’s hard to take much away from their recent performances. Hield has come back down to earth and his price tag reflects that. Bogdanovic’s return to the lineup eats into Buddy’s touches and has hurt Fox’s per minute fantasy production (per NBAWOWY).
Trailblazers @ Timberwolves
Taj Gibson will get his 30 minutes and at $5.1k I don’t fault anyone for liking the value. My lukewarm take is that Gibson does better in games where he is allowed to hover around the three point line. He gets these opportunities when players are getting into the lane and with Wiggins and Rose hurt questionable I’m not sure the Timberpups have anyone with that ability.
Knicks @ Pelicans
Pelicans have an Implied Total of 119 which is…a lot!
Mudiay at $4k seems to pop up in some lineup builds and I’m not entirely sure why. He’s hovering around 20 minutes and there are no new injuries to speak of so it might simply be a minutes + value play. Point Guard isn’t a spot that I like to punt but the Pelicans weak defense is worth taking that risk. Same goes for Dotson if you are looking for deep value / punt plays but it looks like his run might be over.
If Elfrid does actually play E Moore’s usage might take a dip. If both Elfrid and Mirotic are out Moore’s usage stays elevated and given the Knicks defense could provide nice value.
Bulls @ Bucks
The Bucks tie the Pelicans in implied total 119.
The Bucks are without DiVincenzo and Henson tonight which has Twitter buzzing that Thon Maker gets Henson’s minutes. That nets out to about 10 minutes and NBAWOWY projects about 12 minutes. Do whatever you want with that information.
Predicting blowouts is frowned upon in the DFS World but the Bulls are coming back from a less than stellar performance vs the Celtics and are 14.5 underdogs tonight. The Bucks recent defensive outings haven’t inspired much confidence that they can stop anyone but with the Bulls you only have to stop Lavine.
If you buy into narratives “Jabari Parker Revenge Game” is in play. My suggestion is to not play into narratives.
