Bitcoin Price Target = $5,000 :: Pantera Blockchain Letter, July 2018
FIFTH ANNIVERSARY :: PANTERA BITCOIN FUND
No…not now — that was our first price target in 2013 — $5,000 /BTC. Pantera Bitcoin Fund was launched five years ago this month. The Fund’s lifetime return is 10,136.15% net of fees and expenses.
We wanted to share the original logic — as it is equally compelling today.
With Bitcoin at $104.48
Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2013 12:56 PM
Subject: Bitcoin Forecast V
I wanted to share my strong conviction that bitcoin is about to melt-up. (Much of the logic is in the previous emails.) I recognize that by normal securities market standards this statement sounds insane: I believe bitcoin will explode through $200 within the next 6–8 weeks.
I was discussing bitcoin with an investor yesterday and he replied somewhat dismissively “It’s just like buying gold”. No, it’s like buying gold in 1000 B.C. 99% of the financial wealth has yet to address bitcoin. When they do, bitcoin is either going to be worth zero or $5,000 /BTC. The current market price of $100 implies only a 2% chance bitcoin succeeds. I think it’s north of 50% chance that the world adopts a global currency/payment system in which free cryptography replaces the very expensive “trust” charged by banks/VISA-MasterCard/Western Union/PayPal/etc. Bitcoin dominates cash, electronic fiat money, gold, bearer bonds, large stone discs, etc. It can do all of the things that each of those can. It’s the first global currency since gold. It’s the first borderless payment system ever.
If you plan to invest/invest more in bitcoin, it’s my opinion that “now” is better than “later”. For those that have a “half position” on now, I sense two possible scenarios a year down the road:
- We split a bottle of wine over good stories of how the Bitcoin project seemed so promising but shit, it just didn’t work. We’re each out a small fraction of our net worth. No tears.
- If it’s trading at $5,000…might need something stronger than wine to erase the feelings of regret.
Please let me know if and when you plan to invest. We can cut a NAV daily if needed.
With Bitcoin at $253.69
Sent: Wednesday, November 06, 2013 2:58 PM
Subject: Bitcoin Melt-Up
Quick note for those thinking about timing entry:
I helped our Pantera Bitcoin Fund execute a million dollars overnight. The buying pressure on bitcoin was intense. Bitstamp’s 30-day volume is 4x what it was in July. Their overnight volume set a new record $13mm — 10x a typical day in a few months ago. They, Mt.Gox and BTC China each have done $13mm overnight. The total market is rallying on $50mm volume. In July bitcoins averaged $5mm per day.
…In my opinion, it’s like deciding whether to buy Microsoft back in the day at $0.20 a share. It was hard to do when the stock was just at $0.10. In the fullness of time…clearly a great trade. I believe bitcoin right now is just like that. The world’s first global currency since gold and the world’s only borderless payments system (frictionless to boot) at a market cap of $3bn? Now that Silk Road is gone, a new wave of sophisticated investors are entering. It feels like it’s happening. A melt-up which could be orders of magnitude.
This chart plots bitcoin’s price history since July 2010 in log scale to show its very consistent exponential growth. The gold line is the trend line during this period. Projecting price through the end of 2019 using this historical trend line as a guide would put the price of bitcoin at around $21,000 by the end of 2018, and $67,500 at the end of 2019. Seems eminently reasonable to me. Those are our current bitcoin price forecasts.
Before joining the team in 2017, Joey Krug co-founded Augur, the first ICO on the ethereum network. On July 9, Augur launched its mainnet, marking another milestone in the application use-case of blockchain technology. Augur is a decentralized predictions platform whose purpose is to democratize and decentralize finance. For the first time, any individual around the world can speculate on derivatives at a low cost without the need for a third party intermediary. Broader benefits from this technology include superior forecasts of future outcomes and better access to hedging and speculation mechanisms.
While Joey sees this as an advancement for Blockchain overall, he recognizes that widespread adoption of decentralized applications still rests on resolving issues inherent to the technology, particularly scalability and price volatility. Pantera continues to focus on finding projects that we think will solve these challenges, including recent investments in projects such as Polkadot and Basis.
To read more about the Augur project roadmap, checkout Joey’s article on Medium.
ICO FUNDS VALUATION POLICY
ICOs are essentially very early-stage venture that has a real-time price feed, offering some interesting investment alternatives that aren’t offered in the venture community. There are three ways you could manage a fund like the ICO Fund.
Venture Fund Lockup
Obviously, venture funds lock up for 10 or 12 years, and LPs have no liquidity. So the two extreme choices that we could have picked are doing it like a venture fund. We lock the positions up for 10, 12 years, you commit the capital, and we realize profits years down the road, you get the capital back, but we chose not to do that obviously.
Futures Price Markup
The other extreme, and what some of our competitors are doing, is to markup pre-auction ICOs to this “future’s price”, that isn’t really trading. And then it’s pretty sketchy taking performance fees on positions that have not realized any profits and may never realize those illusory gains.
Liquidity, No Markup and Long-term Gains
We picked what we think is the appropriate middle ground where we are offering LPs quarterly liquidity, so if you really want to come out, you can, but it rewards the LPs that stay for multiple quarters, and even years, and they will get more and more of these and better gains.
CONFERENCE CALL SERIES ADDITIONS
We’ve recently expanded our conference call series to include a quarterly Venture Fund II LP Performance Call, open to VF II LPs. We will also hold Thematic Calls when interesting topics come up. These calls will occur four or five times a year — typically be on the fourth Tuesday of the month. They are open to current LPs or anyone interested in learning more about the space.
A recording of our July 24 ICO Industry Discussion conference call is available on this page.
MANAGING TOKENS ACROSS VENTURE FUNDS AND ICO FUND
Our strategy for these new hybrid investments which have equity, and are either tokens now or maybe tokens in the future. We have a clear criterion for allocating deals:
- If it’s an equity position, it goes in the venture fund, because equity is illiquid and it has to be in a locked up fund
- If it’s a token that has a less than two-year lockup, it goes in the ICO Fund
And so with that, if those initial investments spin off something new, like we invest via the venture fund in an equity position and it ultimately spins off tokens, like Zcash did in our Venture Fund II, the venture fund holds those tokens. It’s completely dependent on liquidity because we’re trying to marry the liquidity of the asset with the liquidity that we’re guaranteeing to you, our LPs.
ICO FUND :: ORIGIN PROTOCOL
Origin Protocol, which Pantera invested $3 million in as part of their advisor round earlier this year, is an open-source platform that will enable creation of peer-to-peer marketplaces on the blockchain. Pantera thinks this is a potentially powerful idea for marketplace disintermediation as it will reduce transaction fees, promote free and transparent commerce, and redistribute value from rent-seeking middlemen to individual buyers and sellers. Origin just released their first demo DApp in January of this year and, since then, they have focused exclusively on building out their first demo DApp. The team is run by co-founders Josh Fraser, who previously co-founded three other venture-backed companies, and Matthew Liu, the third-ever Product Manager at YouTube and former VP PM at Qwiki and Bonobos.
VENTURE FUND II PORTFOLIO ANNOUNCEMENT :: OPENTOKEN
OpenToken is an open and intuitive way to support next generation token projects that are changing how we think about decentralized ecosystems. On OpenToken, users can discover upcoming token projects, choose projects to support, track the tokens for projects they back, and convert tokens into other cryptocurrencies. OpenToken’s primary mission is to make participating in token sales easy for casual investors, ultimately becoming a one-stop-shop for the entire ICO funnel, from participation to portfolio management. The token’s integrations with Coinbase integrations, position it well to handle mainstream interest.
49th ANNUAL WORLD SERIES OF POKER :: HIGHLIGHTS
Virtue Poker, one our ICO Fund positions, offered Pantera eight free tickets to the 49th Annual World Series of Poker. While the Pantera team would have loved to get paid ten grand to play poker, we were too busy running the funds to go. Below are some highlights from Pantera LPs at the World Series of Poker.
LP David Kelsey at this year’s event, pictured with the great Dan Harrington, 1995 WSoP Champion.
Pantera partners will be traveling over the next months to discuss Venture Fund III and the blockchain disruption. We have organized group lunches in many cities, should you want to meet other investors who share your interest in blockchain. If you are interested in attending one of our group lunches, please fill out the form on this page and we will be in touch regarding availability.
Some of our dates include:
- London, July 25–27 — July 26, Group Lunch | 12pm
- New York, July 30-August 3 — August 1, Group Lunch | 12pm
- Southampton, August 17 | Group Lunch at 12pm
- New York, August 20–24
- San Francisco, August 29 | Group Lunch at 12pm
- Monaco, 29–31 — August 30, Group Lunch | 12pm
- Chicago, September 12–13 — September 12, Group Lunch | 12pm
- Mountain View, September 12 | Group Lunch at 12pm
- Seattle, September 13–14 — September 13, Group Lunch | 12pm
- Hong Kong, September 17–20
- Boston, September 17 | including a Group Lunch at 12pm
- Durham, NC, September 17 | including a Group Lunch at 12pm
- New Haven and Greenwich, September 18
- New York, September 19–21 — September 20, Group Lunch | 12pm
- London, September 24
- Los Angeles, September 24 | including a Group Lunch at 12pm
- Orange County, CA, September 25–28 — September 25, Group Lunch | 12pm
- Amsterdam, September 25–26
- Geneva, September 27
- Zurich, September 28
- Amsterdam, October 18
- Las Vegas, October 22–24
- Napa, October 24–26
- Prague, October 30-November 2
- Macau, November 12–14
If you are interested in a meeting, please contact Pantera’s Investor Relations team at 650–854–7000 or email@example.com.
The future has arrived,
“Put the alternative back in Alternatives”
PORTFOLIO COMPANIES AND PROTOCOL TOKENS
- Joey Krug on the June 8 Episode of the “Unconfirmed: Insight and Analysis from the Top Minds in Crypto” podcast, episode entitled “How to Create Regular Cryptocurrency”
- Dan Morehead on CNBC, Fast Money
- Dan Morehead on Fox Business, Mornings with Maria
- Dan Morehead on Bloomberg Panel, Bitcoin: The Past, Present and Future
- Dan Morehead on Bloomberg, Pantera’s Morehead Says Bitcoin ‘Is a Screaming Buy’
- Dan Morehead on CNBC, Hedge Fund CEO Says Bitcoin’s Flashing a Rare Buy Signal
- Dan Morehead on CNBC, Early Innings for Cryptocurrency Craze: Pantera Capital CEO
- Dan Morehead on CNN, Bitcoin: Digital gold or Ponzi scheme?
- Dan Morehead on Fox Business, Morning with Maria
- New York Times, A Bitcoin Hedge Fund’s Return: 25,004% (That Wasn’t a Typo)
- Dan Morehead on Fox Business, Mornings with Maria
- Dan Morehead speaks at Money2020 Conference with Kik’s Ted Livingston
- Dan Morehead speaks at Sohn Conference CNBC
- TechCrunch, While Investment Firms Ponder ICOs, This Team is Barreling Ahead With a $100 Million ICO Fund
- TechCrunch, ICOs, How Do They Work? | Disrupt SF 2017
Pantera is actively hiring for the following roles:
- Data Scientists
- Data Entry
- Investor Relations Associates
If you have a passion for blockchain and want to work in Menlo Park, San Francisco, or New York, please follow this link to apply.
Some good material to start with on the development of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies as speculative instruments:
· Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System — white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto
· 12 Graphs that Show Just How Early the Cryptocurrency Market Is by Chris McCann
· Blockchain Investments and the New Problem Asset for Conventional VCs by Jake Brukhman
· Fat Protocols by Joel Monegro
· What Does $300 Ether Mean? by Vinay Gupta
· Token Economy by Stefano Bernardi and Yannick Roux
· The Rise of the Token Sale by Max Mersch
· Making Sense of Cryptoeconomics by Max Mersch
· Why Amazon’s Margin Is Filecoin’s Opportunity Forbes, Aug 28, 2017
· Pantera Capital to Raise $100 Million in Investment for ICO Hedge Fund Coindesk, Jun 28, 2017
· While Investment Firms Ponder ICOs, This Team is Barreling Ahead with a $100 million ICO Fund TechCrunch, Jun 28, 2017
· Balaji CNBC Interview CNBC
· US Fed Hints at Blockchain Integration Coindesk
· Coindesk State of Blockchain Q2 Report Coindesk
· The Isle of Man Welcomes ICOs Coindesk
· Closure Steps for Chinese Exchanges Coindesk
· ICO “Rounds” Are Coming TechCrunch
Two of the best books are Digital Gold by Nathaniel Popper for a fun high-level history and an in-depth technically-minded look Mastering Bitcoin and Mastering Ethereum by Andreas Antonopoulos.
And some additional information on the ICO model specifically:
· Recommended Primer: Token Mania
Additional information on blockchain regulation:
· Blockchain Letter: a monthly letter with our thoughts on significant market and ecosystem-related developments. Also, includes our thoughts on blockchain venture capital and news on our portfolio companies for accredited investors.
· Blockchain Investor Letter: Public Letter plus exclusive information for accredited investors.
· White Papers: periodic, original blockchain research and academic papers.