Mutiny on the good ship GOP
In the most implausible election campaign of our generation, it comes as little surprise that the real drama may still lie ahead.
For the Republicans in particular, this year has been a roller-coaster with no emergency stop. With safe-bet Jeb Bush failing to gain traction, and the other 15 candidates either dropping out or struggling for political identity, the party finds itself cornered by a wave of support for the man they dismissed as the patsy.
Incendiary, brash and endearingly unencumbered by political norms (having policies, for example) Donald Trump has been quick to establish himself as a viable presidential candidate among voters - much to the chagrin of his peers. His inexperience has been shrewdly marketed as “a refreshing change” from establishment politics, accruing a huge following in the process; at the last count, his delegate share was around 50 percent up on Cruz, his closest competitor. The Trump juggernaut has even achieved the seemingly impossible, with many supporters claiming he’d mobilized them to cast their first ever vote. Whatever the phenomenon, Trump has tapped into the American psyche at a frequency inaudible to his rivals.
Anxiety is tangible within the GOP, for whom Trump is at best a wild card and at worst a political disaster. The party finds itself musing two sub-optimal outcomes; support the presidency of a man they fear will humiliate their party, or denounce their most popular candidate for the sake of legacy.
By contrast (though unsurprisingly) the Democrats, are practically salivating at the prospect of a Trump/Clinton race. Trump’s loud voice might poll well in a crowded room, but they are of the opinion that a head to head with career politician Clinton will soon put him to bed.
“It is really damn simple,” wrote Conservative activist Erick Erickson in an open letter to to Newt Gingrich earlier this month “Donald Trump’s nomination will give you Hillary Clinton’s presidency.”
A spate of recent Trump victories has only heightened these tensions, with some GOP members openly refusing to support Trump as a nominee, even if he wins the support of the voters:
In short, the GOP faces an identity crisis which may dictate their party’s fate for years to come. It’s not surprising then that whispers of conspiracy have surfaced, with some suggesting plans are already underway to ensure Trump does not attain the nomination.
Here’s a quick Storyzy explanation of how a GOP mutiny might still rob Donald Trump of his shot at the Presidency.
To become the presidential nominee, candidates are required to win not just the most states, but also an overall majority of party delegates. Delegates are generally bound by the primary results to support a particular candidate, thus producing a preliminary count. However, if this initial count does NOT amount to a majority for one candidate, the party will broker a deal internally before the convention, and unite behind whichever candidate leads in the Primaries. It’s a process driven by the assumption that a win for the candidate is a win for the party: but absent that logic from this year’s race, the negotiation has been thrown wide open.
Without a deal being struck behind closed doors, delegates find themselves with a central role in the decision making process. If the first convention ballot fails to produce an outright majority, they can vote, unfettered by both the party and their electorate, for whomever they choose — or even propose a new candidate. It’s a narrow window of influence with the potential to volte-face the election, and one which is generally avoided by the party for the sake of maintaining a united front. However, this time round it may provide a last widow of opportunity for the GOP to change the hand they’ve been dealt, and recurring rumors suggest Jeb Bush and even Paul Ryan (who has not yet run) have been earmarked to replace Trump in precisely this way.
The move is not without consequence of course: it comes not only at the expense of our short-fingered friend — but more importantly, the electorate, whose political will is rendered obsolete in the process.
The moment of truth is scheduled for July 18–21 in Cleaveland, Ohio, when this year’s candidate will be announced.
In short, there are some tough choices ahead for the GOP, and even if Donald Trump takes the lead in the primaries, a coup may still be written in his stars and stripes. Not to worry though; just last weekend he uttered the magic word “lawsuit” in response. So that should fix everything.
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