Bregret isn’t real…yet

Following the EU referendum result, some postulated and reported that people were regretting their vote to Leave, either because they didn’t think it would actually happen or because the negative economic consequences that were warned turned out to be real. In another attack on the English language this was termed ‘Bregret’, a portemanteau of ‘Brexit’ and ‘regret’ and almost as bad as the word Brexit itself. Yougov polling quickly dispelled that and showed that a re-run of the vote now would produce the same result. It was always a bit naive to think that a vote which for some people had been decades in the making could be overturned by a few (even dramatic) data points. This does not mean, however, that Bregret will never occur.

The key is in understanding people’s expectations from a Leave vote. Negative economic consequences were not unexpected for many of them. It is a slight myth that Remain’s economic arguments were utter failures in getting through to Leave voters. In a recent documentary, ‘Out and Proud’, Sky reported that 56% of Leave voters expected short-term economic damage. Moreover, just after the referendum Sky News released polling that found that 28% of all voters would vote Leave even if it meant damaging the UK economy. Remain’s fundamental issue then wasn’t that not enough Leave voters thought Leave would damage the UK economy, it’s that many believed that this would be all worth it.

If Bregret were ever to happen then, a short-term drop in the UK economy would clearly not be a trigger. So what would? What are the key things that would make people regret their decision?

It’s impossible to provide an exhaustive list, but here are some obvious headliners:

• Lowering the rate of immigration (and this means lowering, not just having the decision made at Westminster as some Leave campaigners have since tried to make out).
• More money going to the NHS.
• Long-term economic gains.
• More attention given to the ‘left-behind’ regions of the UK (such as the North East of England, Cornwall or Wales).

There are, of course, other things that could change people’s minds (disruption of peace process in Northern Ireland or Scottish independence), but these would be more unintended consequences rather than a failure to achieve the things people want.

There is fair reason to believe that some or all of these objectives will not be achieved. Given the government policy of cuts and austerity we can be fairly certain that EU funds to poorer regions of the UK will not be replaced like for like and that the NHS (as well as other public services like transport, housing and schools) will continue to be pressured.

We cannot be so sure what will happen to the long-term economy, but given the length of time it takes to form trade deals, the likelihood of exit negotiations being highly complex as well as involving trade-offs and that even our WTO seat is currently uncertain, the future does not look bright.

Immigration may well come down, but again, the likelihood of it reaching the cursed ‘tens of thousands’ promise seems remote, given that non-EU migration alone is well over that amount.

And then, we reach the real politics of the matter. The reality is that public opinion often does not just form itself but is lead; by the media, by politicians, who take events and facts and construct them into a narrative. Those opposed to the EU spent years doing this; taking every single negative event and tying it to immigration and EU membership. Even if Leave promises do fail to deliver and voters are left feeling like they didn’t get what they hoped for, this doesn’t mean Bregret will occur by itself. What Remainers, and those who are determined to continue the war even if this battle is lost, must do is link these material downsides to the Leave vote, to our lack of EU membership, to the disaster of Brexit negotiations, to the incompetence of Leave campaigners, to the egos of leading nationalists.

The events will be what they will be, but then it is up for grabs for anyone with the conviction, and the platforms, to be able to explain those events, to build the narrative of the problem, and so the solution.