The Velocity curve of Technological Evolution
Since the start of the internet and social media, the pace of technologies evolution has been rapid. The changes ahead will be beyond most peoples imagination. Business and government leaders must anticipate these trends and build organisational structures that can adapt in the age of continuous disruption.
Data Storage and Dispersion
Data used to be stored on hard drives and servers in homes and corporate offices. Yet with the advent of Cloud Data Storage, most data is now stored in a virtual cloud network which can include a remote data center, or even excess capacity on other companies servers. The Cloud now stores all human knowledge, including historical books in all languages, and all available data through a dispersed “Knowledge Network”. Information can be accessed from anywhere in the world instantaneously.
“Knowledge Network Orchestration”
All available human knowledge and technical data is basically available through the cloud network depending on access. The integration of technologies and data flow are empowering new opportunities to re-define business models and control. In the new economy, the network orchestrator who can control the flow of knowledge (information) has the power over subservient businesses. Examples include:
Apple which controls the product design of its products and flow of information through its platform, yet produces products through virtual manufacturing. iTunes allows Apps created by independent programmers to access the network while providing a percentage of sales to Apple for alignment access.
Amazon controls the network connecting to consumers, creating e-commerce stores virtually on-line, which are connected to super distribution hubs that it controls directly. Overflow product access from individual product brands own warehouses is also leveraged as a second layer. The customer only sees the virtual store on-line and rapid delivery of product ordered to their home. Yet, Amazon maintains the analytical data on every customer, aggregates the distribution volume at every touch point and places all external product brands under its umbrella. It leverages its unique digitised knowledge, extended fixed and virtual logistics infrastructure and seamlessly orchestrates all activities to satisfy the individual consumer. Most of the products are manufactured and branded by external parties (except for a few Amazon designed tech accessories) and most of the logistics networks are owned by external service providers, but Amazon generates revenue across all the touch points as well as the ultimate value of retaining exclusive data on every customer.
Alibaba provides a similar orchestration network across China and Southeast Asia.
The Li & Fung Group is the largest “Virtual Manufacturer” in the world controlling production capacity across more than 15,000 factories in 45 countries on behalf of its clients, but without owning any of the factories. It was the first company to create the “virtual manufacturing” model.
Uber is a network orchestrator controlling virtual taxis that it does not own and drivers that it does not pay a salary, but controls these assets through its network orchestration umbrella.
Airbnb has created the largest hotel network in the world (with more rooms available than the top 5 hotel brands), yet doesn’t own any hotels since it accesses virtual rooms from individual home owners providing guest stays. They do not own the rooms, but control the data and orchestrate across their network.
Today, some of the largest companies in the world in terms of valuation do not own the assets, but control the platforms, data and networks which unlock value in the new economy. This trend will dramatically expand during the next decade. The network orchestration model also allows physical assets to be controlled remotely and utilised dynamically to create “virtual infrastructure”.
IOT and IOE
The Internet of Things (IOT) allows machines to communicate directly with machines. This can include triggering maintenance windows on parts, allowing machines in a factory or a part on an airplane to trigger responses from other devices and even remote interface. The Internet of Everything (IOE) extends this communication to include humans as well, so machines and humans interact dynamically.
3-D Printing
Products can now be digitally printed in remote locations, on trucks or in homes. The products already range from toys, spare parts on the Space Station, airplane components and even some types of food. Amazon even has a patent filed and test vehicles deployed which print the product while in transit to a customers home. In the very near future, 3-D printing stations will be located within cities for quick delivery and even in customers homes, so they can go on-line to purchase a product and then have it immediately printed at their home. This will dramatically disrupt the traditional manufacturing plant and warehouse facility structure as some products will be created dynamically and delivered instantaneously.
Holography and Virtual Reality
Holographic technology already exists. A three dimensional holographic image of individuals speaking on a phone can be displayed in miniature size (similar to the version in the Star Wars movie) and will be available in the market as the cost comes down. Holographic meetings with business counterparts can be held with life-size 3-D images interacting live without having to fly them to one location. Virtual Reality goggles are already being used for many on-line games and the U.S. military even trains pilots and soldiers in virtual reality war games. The ability to leverage Holography and VRL across many scenarios in the future is extremely wide. Imagine shopping on-line for clothing, and having a holographic avatar of yourself displayed in miniature. You can try on the clothes on your avatar. When you decide to purchase, the clothing will be 3-D printed at your home or at a nearby printing center in the exact customised size that fits. This shopping experience will happen within this decade as most of the technology already exists.
Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
The most powerful Artificial Intelligence (AI) is based on machine learning. The building blocks of AI started with advanced algorithms, which sequentially evolved. However, today an AI device can essentially teach itself through continuous learning. The more information that it has access to, the more rapidly it learns. When AI has access to information on the Cloud network, it has theoretically unimaginable capacity to learn. We are only at the early stages of AI machine learning, but in the next few years the transformation will be immense. AI will fly airplanes, drive cars, write legal contracts, prescribe medicines to patients, write programming, and even teach us, and in some roles will even manage us.
As robots are physically deployed for certain automated functions in factories, warehouses, etc. they will replace the human workers. As examples, Foxconn has already replaced thousands of factory jobs with robots. There will be over 50,000 dark warehouses (operated by robots) within the next few years. In Singapore, Drones already conduct inventory stock takes in large distribution centers at a fraction of the time previously required. Within the next decade, the majority of programming may be written by AI. China has introduced a Social Credit Score System where AI will monitor every citizen through various metrics and will assign a performance score. The score will be a tool for rewarding or penalising behaviour. The system has already even deployed in China starting in 2020 and will be enhanced in two years with facial recognition scans.
AI has the potential to help humanity to cure diseases, increase food production, define new energy sources and improving the quality of life. It can also be a tool of disruption and even social control. It is extremely important for governments and businesses to establish and enforce AI protocols to ensure that this powerful technology is utilised for noble purposes and regulated to ensure that society is protected. Today, the United States and China are the dominant leaders of AI technology. The rise of AI, VRL and Robotics will create significant disruption and will re-define most business models.
The Singularity
The Singularity has been mentioned in science fiction books and movies, but it may become a reality in our lifetime. The Singularity is that one moment, an inflection point in human history, when a single AI device breaks through the Cloud Networks across the globe and gains more knowledge than a human. That AI device would then surpass humans in terms of knowledge and the ability to control other AI devices, robots and technologies. It is in essence, the moment in time when technology overtakes humans. Some of the leading scientists and technology experts forecast that this could happen between 2035 and 2050. This includes Elon Musk, Bill Gates and Dr. Stephen Hawkins. Others still say it could be a few hundred years away.
Summary
The velocity curve of technology has accelerated at a rapid speed and will have a significant impact on business and society. The next 20 years will witness the biggest economic transformation in human history. The transition from the agrarian to industrial economy took approximately 120 years. In contrast, during the next few decades every business will be disrupted without exception and business models will have to be reinvented. The ultimate power and competitive advantage will go to those companies who can leverage “Knowledge Network Orchestration” and the ultimate efficiency of AI and Robotics. Education and life long training will be one of the most important investments in society. The first Trillionaire will likely be the person who drives AI’s break-out and who fully leverages the network orchestration model to his advantage enabled by new technologies.
