Investing for the Future — Think Like a Polymath

I was cleaning up some old stuff and came across the Economist “The world in 2019”. This edition had an intriguing cover, It depicted Leonardo da Vinci’s Vitruvian Man along with a collection of images, of people and concepts and their attached symbolism for making sense of the world in the year ahead.

This edition also marked the 500th death anniversary of a Leonardo, a consummate “Polymath”. The cover was classic da Vinci style, trying to paint a big picture by putting together multiple concepts on a larger canvas. It depicts many changes and challenges from across the globe:

· Putin and Trump for the rising authoritarian and populist phenomenon.

· VR headsets, EV’s, Facial Recognition, Double Helix, Flying Machines & Moon-shot about the technological change.

· #Metoo, Angelina Jolie, Stork, Brexit, and Pinocchio for the profound social changes.

· Four Horsemen of the apocalypse depicting Conquest, Pandemics, Famine, Death, and Catastrophes.

“Vitruvian Man”, da Vinci’s famous sketch represents “The Perfect Man”. Beyond this symbolism, it is also a depiction of the Renaissance period, and “Renaissance Man”, a person with wide interests and many ideas. The message behind the cover was obvious, think like Leonardo, think like a Renaissance Man. Make sense of the world through multiple lenses and understand the forces that are sharping our future. We need to be curious, ask the right questions, develop diverse perspectives and connect the dots. “We need to start thinking like a Polymath”.

“Polymaths Specialize in Curiosity”

Some of our greatest thinking came from Polymaths: Gottfried Leibnitz, Shen Kuo, Omar Khayyam, Benjamin Franklin, Rabindranath Tagore, Friedrich Von Humboldt, Nikola Tesla, and John Von Neuman, to name a few. They were people with broad interests and wide knowledge. What defined them was their insatiable curiosity, their need to know about the world and about things they did not know.

Leonardo da Vinci was a true Polymath. He was not just an artist, he was also an engineer, practitioner, architect, scientist, inventor, cartographer, anatomist, and botanist. His greatest strength was his “Curiosity”, wanting to understand the world around him and question its functioning.

Polymaths see the world differently. They question the phenomenon around them, make sense of the big picture and build a broader perspective. They look beyond the obvious, make connections that others ignore and have the advantage of a unique perspective. Polymaths dabble with different branches of knowledge, understanding the underlying principles.

Beyond Specialization

This is one of the best images I came across and all credit to the person who created this. So aptly summarises what is happening today.

We have unfortunately created a cult of specialization. The narrower your field of focus, the better you are supposed to be. The buzzword is “Focus”. While focus is not the issue, it is our over emphasis on “The Micro”, which leads to myopic approach and misses the big picture, proverbial missing the forest for the trees. Specialization is forced upon us to get ahead in our career. We are told to develop a tunnel vision and that there is bright light at the end of the tunnel.

Specialization is important, and some of the smartest people I have met are specialists in a particular subject or field. But what makes them standout is their ability to look beyond their domain. They are curious to explore other areas to build a big picture. It helps them:

· Build better mental models about reality

· Understand and solve problems better

· Identify patterns and anticipate

We Need to Think in 4D

I am a student of liberal arts and an history buff. I have developed a deep conviction about the need for diversified mental models. This helps us frame change and uncertainty surrounding us and plan for the future. What does this mean? I came across this excellent illustration by Michael Simmons of mentalmodelsclub.com and he has hit the nail on the head

We consider the saying “Jack of all trades and master of none” as carved in stone. This unfortunately has created an anti-generalist tendency in our society. But is it really true? Evidence though seems to suggest otherwise. When we step back and look at the achievements of great thinkers of the past, from Copernicus, Newton to Edison and Tesla, they were multi-dimensional in their thinking. The same applies to modern day innovators and thinkers such as Walt Disney, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, and Jeff Bezos. While they focus on a particular area, they overlay this with diverse understanding of multiple other domains. They build a solid foundation of diverse knowledge through reflection, experiment, and real-life experience. They are also proponents of the “Five Hour Rule”, spend five hours per week doing deliberate learning. They see the world in 4D

· Dimension 1: Focusing on one area

· Dimension 2: Learn across disciplines to build on specialization

· Dimension 3: Create a lattice work of mental models

· Dimension 4: Think years into the past and future

So here is what it means to be a “Polymath”

Curiosity, Mental Models, and the Future

One of my favourite statements is “Curiosity didn’t kill the cat; it gave nine lives” 😊

While it has become a cliché, the fact is we are surrounded by exponential change and radical uncertainty. Everything seems to be changing at an accelerated pace and in an interconnected world, “butterfly Effect” diffuses and exacerbates uncertainty rapidly. Look around and we see this in:

· Technology and Innovation

· Environment and Resources

· People and Society

· Geopolitics and Governance

· Health and Wealth

Conventional thinking and received wisdom can handicap us when navigating change. We need to step-back, reflect and ask the right questions, challenge assumptions, and look beyond the obvious.

Curiosity has been the backbone of our progress and it will be crucial for our future. As children we are very curious, and everything fascinates us. We ask many questions and are not afraid to explore. Fast forward a few decades and many of us are frustrated cubicle dwellers running the mad rat race, having lost the art of asking questions. Our curiosity takes a back seat, and we get accustomed to living by the predefined rules and adhere to the conventional worldview. Blame it probably on our education system that straightjackets our thinking and the mind-numbing conformity of the modern corporate world. We fear asking questions!!

Curiosity is a powerful tool and helps people and organizations thrive in complex environments. It enables innovation and creates positive outcomes. It is about asking, “Why? What If? How?” In a world inundated with data, Curiosity enables you:

· Make sense of the complexity

· Build new perspectives

· Look beyond the obvious and differentiate

· Make sense of new developments

We understand the world around us through our mental models. They are our internal representation of external reality. They not only help us make sense of the world, but they also shape how we think and how we perceive opportunities or threats. They help us simplify complexity. A mental model is a representation of our experience and learning. Since we cannot store the vast amount of detail we come across in our life, we use simple representations of how something works and to simplify the complex into understandable.

“Essentially Mental Models are the thinking tools we use to understand life, make decisions, and solve problems.”

Learning new mental models gives us a new way to see the world. According to legendary investor, Charlie Munger

“The more models we have, the better able we are to solve problems. But if we don’t have the models, we become the proverbial man with a hammer. To the man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail. If you only have one model, you will fit whatever problem you face to the model you have.”

Shane Parrish of Farnam Street has done some great work in this area. In his three-volume series “The Great Mental Models”, he explores general concepts, concepts from Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Systems and Mathematics, to identify some foundational principles that can help us build great mental models and better understand the world around us. Some of my favourite mental models from his work are

· Reasoning from first principles

· Second order effects

· Probabilistic thinking

· Relativity

· Red Queen Effect

· Feedback loops

· Randomness

…… and Finally

History has a lot to teach us. In one of my previous articles “This time is not different”, I tried to analyse the current state of the stock market through the lens of the history. I have seen this happen before during the dot com boom and bust and the script remains the same. Over the centuries, these manias, panics, and crashes have been an ever-present feature. Learning from history gives us tools to evaluate the present and be prepared for the future.

History might not repeat, but definitely rhymes. What we think as novel change: technological, economic, political, and social have all happened in the past in some form or the other. Understanding the past and how people and societies reacted to them provides a invaluable tool to better understand the present and be prepared for the future. “Learn Backward and Live Forward”

“Let the Polymaths Inherit the World”