Let us take a look at how snow avalanches work. The snow falls for a long time giving the illusion of stability. Then the mountain hits a tipping point after a long period of stability. At this point there is no escaping an avalanche short of the arrival of spring.
It turns out that wars and snow avalanches work the same way. They both follow a power-law distribution based on a feedback-loop process. History is a heavy driver of the future. And a tipping point is defined as follows: When something small can cause something big.
When one or both sides must be careful or there could be war, then we have hit a tipping point. At this point war (avalanche) is certain short of something extraordinary.
What about timing?
History provides a clue. A large financial shock after a long period of stability was followed 7 to 10 years later by a large war — WWI and WWII. That means we are in the danger zone right now.