A few fractures in the base

Or partisan asymmetry in evaluations of the president

For most of his presidency Trump has enjoyed approval among Republicans in the high 80 percent range. This has been much remarked upon. In Kaiser (KFF) Health Tracking polls this year (January-April, June-July), Rep approval has been 89, 83, 84, 89, 87 and 85% (no May poll)

These are impressive numbers. But consider the DISapproval among Democrats for the same period: 94, 88, 89, 88, 88 and 85. Two parties get to play the game, and Democrats disapprove of Trump as much as Republicans approve.

If that were the full story, polarization reigns and the parties are symmetric in their devotion or disgust. All normal. But that isn’t the full story.

Approval is usually dichotomized but is often measured in four points-strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove & strongly disapprove. If we consider strength, the story is more complicated. The parties are NOT symmetric in strong approval vs strong disapproval.

Among Republicans in 2019, 65% strongly approved of Trump’s handing of his presidency. But among Democrats 80% strongly disapproved. If strength of opinion is motivating, say for turnout in 2020, advantage Dems.

For Republicans, the 65% strong approval was paired with 20% who somewhat approved. That oft cited 85% total approval is a bit fractured. For Dems, 80% strongly disapproved and just 9% somewhat disapproved. Rather unified.

We might mention independents as well. In 2019 39% approved, 52% disapproved, but again strength mattered among Independents: 15% strong approval, 34% strongly disapprove. And 24% somewhat approve vs 18% somewhat disapprove.

Partisanship also varies in strength. (Pooling all 2019 data.) Compare partisans with independents who lean to a party. Again there is asymmetry. 65% of Reps strongly approve vs 80% of Dems who strongly disapprove.

Among Rep leaners 42% strongly approve and 33% somewhat approve. For Dem leaners: 72% strongly disapprove and 16% somewhat disapprove.

Strong approval is 23 points higher among Reps than among Rep leaners. For Dems the gap is modest, 80% of Dems strongly disapprove and 72% of Dem leaners agree, just an 8 point difference.

While Reps are over 85% approving of the president, the ratio of strong-to-some approval is just over 3 to 1. Among Dems, the ratio of strong-to-some DISapproval is 8 to 1.

It seems likely that GOP voters, either partisans or leaners, will find reasons to come home to Trump against a specific Democratic opponent. But there is more need for Republicans to develop a common view of Trump than there is for Dems to unite in opposition.

There are strengths and weaknesses for both parties heading into 2020. But one of the most often cited Trump strengths, an approval with his base Republicans in the high 80s, has some fractures.