PROBLEMS OF THE PREDICTION MARKETS

The main financial turnover of the prediction market is provided by two directions in which it develops. The prediction market based on group predictions and the market based on predictions made by people who have special skills and knowledge.

The market of group predictions uses the “wisdom of the crowd” to predict future events. Users determine the possible outcome of these events and buy reward shares for the correctly guessed result.

The main disadvantages of such forecast methods are as follows:

— possibility of manipulation;

— they are subject to falling into speculative bubbles, as a result of which predictions are of no value;

— due to the fact that any person can participate in forecasting of an event, he/she can act both on the basis of his/her knowledge on the forecast subject and not to be quite good at this issue or act under the influence of the results of other participants, which can distort the prediction accuracy;

— it is impossible to make a forecast for “tomorrow”, as it is impossible to collect quickly the required number of votes to confirm or not to confirm the result;

Basically, this technology is used to predict events, the outcome of which excites a group of people, while people are more interested in their own destiny, and predictions related to personal environment, as well as personal problems.

The second direction includes portals represented by predictors who have skills and knowledge in predicting events.

Disadvantages of such systems include:

— the lack of trust both to the platforms themselves and to predictors;

— the lack of prediction accuracy statistics and other statistics that can help in choosing a predictor;

— a small geographical coverage;

— a limited number of predictors and the scope of prediction of events;

— the lack of people who make predictions based on statistical data, scientific research, personal professional experience or insider information;

— the lack of group predictions by predictors that are of interest to a group of people;

— high commissions of the platforms;

— impossibility of instant payments;

— rewards for a forecast.

PREVISIONe Platform is a new revolutionary level of service, which will be available through advanced technology and blockchain.

Main advantages are as follows:

— a real indicator of the forecast accuracy;

— ease of use;

— instant reward payments;

— group predictions are made only by predictors with a high forecast accuracy indicator;

— predictions of both personal character and predictions that are of interest to a large number of people;

— more than 20 indicators of estimates and statistics by predictors;

— comments of people who actually received forecasts;

— global geographical coverage;

— low commission for transactions between participants;

— rewards to users for interacting with the platform.

PREVISIONe