An Analytic Model of the Performance of a Forked Bitcoin Blockchain with Two Block Size Limits
tl121
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See https://bitcoil.co.il/Doublespend.pdf

It is a good approximation for ONE or two blocks when certain assumptions are met. As soon as you play with the sate, you need to start using the Negative Binomial.

https://medium.com/@tl121/an-analytic-model-of-the-performance-of-a-forked-bitcoin-blockchain-with-two-block-size-limits-5642ab0325dc

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