Finally, a survey that makes sense

The latest Pulse Asia survey gives a little bit more room for analysis (and some punditry) than that pathetic excuse for a survey which I won’t even link to. The fact that a former UP Stat Dean heads Pulse Asia gives it also some academic cred.

Now for some of that juicy analysis.

One thing is made clear in this survey: VP Binay has a ceiling, and it’s pretty low. He can, on a good day when stars align and all the unicorns (or crocodiles, whichever side you are on) rejoice, expect to get 40% of the vote (that’s his, Erap’s and Marcos’ share, plus error). That notwithstanding, he also has probably the strongest base of support (anywhere from high 20's to mid 30's). That’s both a boon and a bane, as this much support is more than enough to win in a field of five or more, but if it is a three-cornered fight, a 35-40% win is as tight as it gets. Mar is an honest person with good intentions andsignificant pedigree, but we have to admit he’s a lousy politician, from his un-called for remarks to Yolanda survivors, to him blowing a huge early lead to now-VP Binay. Grace Poe has yet to prove she can translate her popularity to an actual pick one election. Senate topnotchers have had a mixed record in the top two positions of the land (2–2–1; GMA and Noli as VP won, Mar and Loren lost, and let’s put GMA’s “win” in 2004 under the let’s forget about it column). Notice that most press releases forget to mention undecideds or strength of choices. That should be included in the upcoming surveys.

The 9-million voter question is (because that’s DU30's ceiling in the current survey), where do Duterte voters go? For that, I have an oversimplistic analogy: You need a baby sitter and the agency sends you three possible candidates; one will guarantee results (even bake your kid a cake) but will steal from you, one is indecisive as he can’t get anything done without thorough analysis (he’ll do a SWOT chart when your kid asks to pee), and the last one is inexperienced, has shown some both flashes of brilliance and stupidity. Pick your favorite flaw: corrupt, indecisive, inexperienced.

Note to reader (yes, I think only one person will read this): Please don’t read too much into surveys this far out, otherwise we’d know how it feels to swim in a sea of garbage.

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