11101 Contrarian Crypto Theses

Qiao Wang
Qiao Wang
Jul 9, 2018 · 3 min read

I was rereading Peter Thiel’s Zero to One, which inspired me to ask the following question on Twitter:

This turned out to be a highly efficient way to crowdsource ideas, and below I compiled some of the most interesting ones. Which ones do you agree/disagree?

Adoption

0. Crypto’s killer app will be letting open source developers capture value. — Dandelion Mane

1a. Crypto is struggling with mainstream adoption because there are entrenched competitors in payment. — Dandelion Mane

1b. The biggest threat to your favorite cryptocurrency isn’t its fork or another cryptocurrency, it’s a more convenient form of digital fiat. — Juan Gutiérrez

10. Hyperbitcoinization is ludicrous. DM (developed markets) central banks are doing a great job. — Alex Krüger

11. Not many people care about control / manipulation by financial industry as long as their paycheck is slightly above their expenses. Revolution is far. — Pareen

100. Security via adoption, i.e., so that it’d be politically costly to attack, is as important as technical security. — Dan McArdle

101. Bitcoin’s censorship resistance is currently limited by social and political context. For instance, KYC defines liquidity and that creates risk for the populations that would benefit the most (sex workers, Venezuelans, etc.). It remains to be seen if crypto’s technical advantages will be accessible beyond wealthy investors & traditionally regulated institutions. — Leigh Cuen

110. Self-sovereign data has a terrible product-market fit. Our society currently values convenience. Need some very clever custody solutions to accommodate self-sovereign + convenience. — Moshe Praver

111. Social scalability is at least as important as technical scalability. — Lane Rettig

1000. The word “cryptocurrency” is a barrier to widespread adoption and in less than five years we will never use the term and cringe at it the way we would “information superhighway”. — Tim Frietas

ICO

1001. How much a project raised doesn’t matter, especially if they raised too much. — Oguz Serdar

1010. Most influential people here are doing shady backroom deals and constantly dumping worthless ICO tokens on retail with massive profits. — Oguz Serdar

1011. Accredited investor rules exist for a reason. — Nic Carter

Monetary policy

1110. Bitcoin is not digital gold, it’s quasi-fiat community money. This means monetary policy can be changed with simple node operator consensus. — Donald McIntyre

1101a. Credit systems built on top of Bitcoin are inevitable and should be welcomed. — Arjun Balaji

1101b. Non full reserve Bitcoin banks will be influential. — Nic Carter

1101c. Fractional lending is society’s choice and adds value to society. Regulatory hurdles aside, any trusted crypto institution could become a fractional lender in a jiffy. Coinbase should soon be a fully regulated bitcoin bank with fractional lending. Likely 1–2 years away. — Alex Krüger

1110a. Bitcoin’s limited supply will be a problem. — Alex Krüger

1110b. Fixed supply cryptocurrencies may be impossible. — Nic Carter

1110c. Bitcoin will eventually lift the cap on its 21 million coins or risk extinction. — Nick C

Tokenization

1111. Securities lifecycle management a bigger deal than tokenizing the register. — Preston Byrne‏

10000. I think tokenizing securities is a great idea. For now the most innovative and interesting companies are not publicly traded as there is such an abundance of capital and IPO is hard. There needs to be a middle ground between VC shark money and publicly traded, both for founders & investors. — Alison Emily

10001. Less so these days, but devs in 2013/2014 didn’t grok when I wanted to build software for blockchain tokens, saying there’s going to be millions of them. We still haven’t seen anything yet. Inflection point is coming. — Simon de la Rouviere

Custody

10010a. People will opt for custodial risk reduction and use Coinbase as their crypto bank long term. No one wants to manage their seeds. — General Measures

10010b. People want custodians. Complete ownership / responsibility will scare the shit out of them. — Pareen

10011. If we don’t ship a password reset protocol it is all ending up back in banks. — Richard Burton

Misc

10100. Stable coins are inherently shit coins unless they’re asset backed. — Gabriel Ferrin

10101. Stellar and its tech will continue to be one of the most successful Crypto-related endeavors. — Parabearic Ari

10110. In 10 years proof-of-work will be obsolete. — Jacob Eliosoff

10111. All crypto currencies should be treated as securities for regulatory purposes. — Ivan the K™

11000. Bitcoin has a theoretically calculable implied cash flow from which a fair valuation can be derived. You can think of people who make transactions in Bitcoin as temporary renters of the network, while the hodlers are the network’s landlords. — Joe Weisenthal

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