The Caliphate, Afghanistan, & The West
October 5, 2021
Written to Bible-believing followers of Jesus, by a Bible-believing follower of Jesus. Test it and hold fast what is good.
For the love of resources!
That is partly why I’ve written this.
As I’ve scoured and skimmed articles, videos, and tweets (yeah, I know) over the last few weeks, I wanted to pull some of it together for myself in some broad brushstrokes. Partly this is to distill my own thoughts, but if you’re anything like me, you’re wondering, “What’s going on in the world right now?” but you’re not necessarily willing to weed through all the bologna in the media (esp. social media). This admittedly long ‘article’ is my attempt at doing it for you, and compiling these things through a more biblical lens (and a whole lot of hyperlinks).
In many ways I’m just parroting what FAI has been putting out for the past couple years regarding geopolitics. But the thing is, for whatever it’s worth, I’ve been listening to them, reading the Scriptures, and watching the world. And it all seems to line up. At the same time, I’ve wondered why it even matters — how is this practical to me? That too, is becoming more clear. So let me save you some time and effort by trying to state plainly and directly what FAI sometimes says too directly and sometimes not directly enough. Here’s my ‘abstract,’ and then we’ll hash out the details and talk a little practical application.
There’s a major shift in global power and influence happening. It’s been happening of course, but current events are making these things a bit clearer (even if the media tends to make them foggier). The West is generally losing influence, and others are filling the void. While much of this boils down to your standard totalitarian power-hungry regimes (and their alliances with one another), the Islamic world warrants particular notice, as Islam’s very simple belief system is actively (and vocally) driving (in a perhaps more unified way than ever) toward something very clear, objective, and defined: the Caliphate. As a follower of Jesus in the USA, my background with eschatology has been, “I’m just making disciples until Jesus comes back, and I don’t really need to know anything else.” I would now argue that the Lord expects us to know what’s going on in the world around us with quite a bit more clarity than that, and what’s going on right now is significant, even if the Lord doesn’t come in our generation. The fact is, Islamic eschatology and Judeo-Christian eschatology (which are exact mirror-opposites) are both barreling to a terrible and wonderful close; we need to know what’s going on.
I’ll try to stay ‘above the weeds’ for us, but click any hyperlink to go deeper into the abyss of media and opinions.
What Is The Caliphate
The answer to this question will provide a key lens for us to think through in the months and years to come. It may even soon become part of common global vernacular, so we need to define what it is.
As I understand it, here is the basic (historical) hierarchy of terminology for Islamic leadership, beginning at the top:
“Caliph” (or sometimes Khalifa) is the word used for the successor of the Prophet Muhammad. His predecessors held this title for almost eight centuries, including when Ottoman ‘sultan’ Selim I gained submission from the Arab world subsequent to his control over the three holy places in the early 1500’s:
- The Noble Sanctuary (the Temple Mount) in Jerusalem
- The Two Holy Mosques (Mecca and Medina)
This, effectually, is what it means to be caliph: to be the political and religious leader of Muslims worldwide, the defender and spreader of Islam, the protector of Muslims in Jerusalem, and the steward/guardian of these three holy sites. (You could say that Selim I received a promotion.)
Selim I’s son, Suleyman [“The Magnificent”], soon took over as the sultan of the Ottoman Empire and caliph of the Islamic world. He made incredible legal, military, political, economic, and architectural advancements, renovating Jerusalem and the Dome of the Rock on the Temple Mount. Him and his global followers saw this stewardship of the Holy City of Jerusalem as part of his divine mandate as caliph. Likewise, worthiness unto the throne of the Caliphate demanded the acquisition of Jerusalem, which his father had done.
The Ottoman Empire dwindled and their 400-year control of Jerusalem was lost to the British in the first World War (1917), forfeiting a since-empty throne of the Islamic Caliphate. “In the meantime, the British Mandate of Palestine gave way to a Jewish State, and after two Arab-Israeli wars, the restoration of a Jewish-led Jerusalem. The warning of Suleyman’s dream had come to pass. The “infidels” had “invaded” Jerusalem during the “reigns of [his] followers,” and there was no caliph to rally the Islamic world and retake it.”
That said, there have still been various types and terms for other mighty Muslim leaders through the centuries.
The one perhaps most alike with caliph on the Shi’ite side of Islam (which is mostly Iran’s Farsi-speaking people of Persian descent, but also some of Iraq) is the term imam. Imams have historically been, according to Shi’ites, the ‘successors’ of Muhammad, similar to the caliphs on the Sunni side. If we picture Islam in its two main branches, the caliphs continued Muhammad’s reign on one side, the imams continued his reign on the other. It is worth noting that a primary Shi’ite belief is that there are is a set number of imams — twelve — and that the twelfth imam will be the final caliph that essentially all Muslims are waiting for (Sunni and Shi’ite), known as ‘al-Madhi’.
It is worth noting that this figure in Islamic belief bears a striking resemblance to the biblical antichrist (pages 31–32) but we’ll get there.
A Sultan is essentially a ‘king’ in the Arabic world (like Turkey) and Shah is the equivalent in Iran (Persia) (Babylonian descent), though the current leader(s) of the ‘Islamic Republic’ who ousted the former Shah have taken the term Ayatollah which holds perhaps more spiritual significance within Islam, being only just below the imam.
Emir/Amir/Vezir/Vizir is perhaps the most standard or common word used of a Muslim leader and is a non-king title. It is used of a petty-king, or a member of the king’s court, but the ‘head’ of this under the king, and perhaps the commander of the military.
There are also Vizirs or Vekils, who might execute the office of any of the above titles in their absence, like a temporary ruling cabinet member.
A Mufti seems to be more like a judge. Mullah is another term I’ve heard, and is simply a teacher/cleric in Islamic religious schools. A Sheikh could be similarly a scholar who proliferates a certain teaching, but is also more commonly used as a simple sign of respect, like ‘sir’ or ‘highness.’
As we continue, please note that (according to a random guy (Arman Ali) on Quora), this term ‘caliph’ wasn’t always used by the caliphs themselves. Rather, the general term of Emir (or even Imam which has sometimes been used as an honorary title for theologians, etc.) was more common and that even today these terms are used somewhat interchangeably for various leaders/commanders of the Islamic world (Emir of Qatar, Emir of Kuwait, Sultan of Oman, etc.). Arman Ali also points out that there is still debate in the Islamic world today concerning whether a united Caliphate is required by Islam, or if the various leaders (sultans, emirs, etc.) can govern their own lands. Yet, as we will see, this dream of Islamic ‘world domination’ (if you will) is very much alive and well.
This then will frame up the rest of our conversation as we look at what’s happening in the world today.
Relation To Current Events In Afghanistan
There are several groups to discuss and define: The Taliban, al-Qaeda (AQ), and ISIS.
Taliban:
Many have suggested that the Taliban have changed. They haven’t. They were doing a decent job at making us think they had through well-planned PR (see also [14:27–16:32]), but this is only becoming more and more hollow as we see the situation unfold. In fact, the only thing that has changed is that their PR has gotten better, but it’s hard to hide who you really are. This is the ‘softer and more gentle’ Taliban for you, cutting the heads off of boys.
In a collection of tweets ranging from Aug 2020 — May 2021, @Ayei_Eloheichem reports the following:
Since 2001, Taliban have been pursuing 2 intersecting tracks: 1) Destabilize Kabul to convince the US the endeavour was hopeless so it removes its forces 2) Launch all-out offensive to seize the entire country and re-establish the [1990’s] Islamic Emirate. How do I know? Because the Taliban themselves have been openly asserting this since 2001. Like the Communists, their ideology has only one non-negotiable end: total, totalitarian control, regardless of the choices of external actors. Jihad remains a binding obligation on every Afghan until it is fully reimposed in all it primitive barbarity, regardless of any agreements. The Taliban rejected to negotiate at all with the Afghan government in 2018; asked more whether Kabul is Islamic, Zabihullah (Taliban spokesperson) scoffs at the questions and basically goes full takfiri (the practice of excommunicating a fellow Muslim from Islam):
“Our established books of jurisprudence make it unequivocally clear that those who have aided and cooperated with unbelievers can be killed and their wealth confiscated.”
“So long as they do not repent and accept an Islamic system and continue to operate as an obstacle hindering the establishment of an Islamic system, they shall continue to be killed until that time and there is no prohibition in such a course of action.”
“The objective of an Islamic system as a result of our Jihad is still not attained…Our goal is the establishment of an Islamic government…we cannot abdicate our responsibility midway.”
The Taliban Emir says the only purpose of intra-Afghan talks is “the consummation, sovereignty and power of an Islamic system.” “If these goals [of theocracy] can be achieved through talks…then we completely support it.” Here is Afghanistan in a nutshell since 2001: 1) Taliban establishes Emirate in most of Afghanistan (1990s-2001) 2) Emiratus Interruptus (2001–2021) 3) Taliban relentlessly pursuing reestablishment of Emirate. That’s it.”
But the proof is in the pudding right?
The guy that the US has hoped would be a more ‘moderate’ voice in the Taliban’s ‘government’ was involved in a shootout in one of their first cabinet meetings in the presidential palace in Kabul. If current events aren’t enough though, let’s look to the past: The new [old] Emir of the Taliban (or the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” (IEA)) blew his son up in the name of jihad. Suffice to say that the Taliban (as it was at its inception) is [still] largely characterized by this jihadist pursuit of, at very least, an ‘Emirate’ in Afghanistan, but not without its larger context: jihad’s inherent/creedal spread unto it’s final [eschatological] caliphate.
Taliban & AQ:
AQ was more-or-less under the Taliban back in the day (Osama bin Laden, the then AQ leader, was under care of the Taliban and swore allegiance to them). The AQ leader now (AAZ) has followed suit. He renewed this oath in 2014 and reiterated it amidst adjustments in Taliban leadership in 2015 and 2016, and even now calls the Taliban’s control of Afghanistan (renamed by the Taliban the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” (IEA)) the “first legitimate emirate” since the fall of the Ottoman caliphate in 1924.
AQ’s affiliate groups have also followed suit (like in West Africa in 2017). The Taliban themselves posted a video in February 2020 (weeks before the deal made in Qatar (more later on Qatar)) about their ‘special forces’ unit, glorifying jihad, and implying a clear anticipation of complete victory and impending return of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate (in the context of the global Islamic quest to restore a caliphate to power). Note also that this Taliban ‘special forces’ unit bears essentially the same name as a 2011 AQ unit which was made up up Taliban forces from both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and eventually grew into AQ’s affiliate group in India in 2014.
AQ and the Taliban obviously have long ties, now made even closer after a generation of intermarriage and shared blood-loss in war against common enemy (US), as well as now having key AQ members on the official Emirate ‘cabinet’ along with key Taliban leaders. These are all the same guys that have been doing these same things for decades. Even apart from personal relationship, they are self-proclaimed “brothers” in Islam and they “don’t see any difference” between one another.
Of course, almost comically, the Taliban had to agree not to ‘support’ AQ for the past 1–2 yrs so that they (the Taliban) could secure the USA’s exit. AQ subsequently went silent, but as soon as the US was gone, AQ eagerly and publicly congratulated the Taliban (great historic victory for Islam, jihad always wins, etc.) and again, has now become part of it’s public ruling ‘cabinet,’ calling it “the nucleus of the Islamic state” (i.e. Caliphate). Some of AQ’s affiliate groups overseas (Syria and North Africa/Sahel, Arabian peninsula/Yemen) have of course also viewed this as a victory for jihad, the ‘only path.’
AQ:
While close and intimately intermingled in relationship, I guess they are technically still distinct entities, but only on paper. To oversimplify, we might say the Taliban (and ISIS) are more locally-focused, whereas AQ is more internationally-focused. AQ is largely decentralized, with various affiliate groups in other nations, which some see as a strength and some see as a weakness (ISIS being a faction that branched off out of AQ’s control in Iraq in 2013, as well as Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria in 2016). Another potential weakness is the fact that AQ’s key remaining leaders are effectively [functioning] ‘hostages’ in Iran (which is technically a political and religious enemy, as a Shi’ite nation) and it’s unclear if they’ll let these AQ leaders go to Afghanistan where they could function freely. So it’s argued that AQ is struggling to revive itself and that while the Taliban will allow it, they also want to keep it in check in some regards (mainly from launching international attacks that can be traced back to Afghan soil). In this, the Taliban are evidently overconfident, as this was also their argument leading up to 9/11. Some would say that the Taliban’s close links with AQ in recent years is not only part of this strategy to ‘keep eyes on’ AQ, but also an effort to maintain legitimacy. Others would say they’re simply one-and-the-same, and the Taliban are protecting AQ as their own. In any case, both are emboldened, and one old AQ leader has even come out of [presumed-dead] hiding.
ISIS/ISIL:
ISIS is a little different (but not really). ISIS, branched off from AQ (which we might surprisingly say is more ‘moderate and pragmatic’) and declared itself caliphate in 2014 after it seized Iraq and Syria in 2013. In the same breath, it declared AQ and another other jihadi groups as illegitimate, so it follows that, to them, this whole situation in Afghanistan is not a victory, but rather a key example of the Taliban/AQ ‘apostates’ joining with other ‘idolators’ (US) and becoming their ‘clients.’
“God says: ‘They will not cease to fight you till they turn you from your religion, if they are able’ (Q. 2:217). And they [USA] have been able to turn the Taliban from their religion.”
That said, ISIS can’t be too disappointed about it. Sure, they are still fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan (as ISKP), but also enjoying newfound freedom with the US gone, and they may likely be able to gain more hardline followers as they convince jihadists of these ‘apostates’ (Taliban/AQ).
Meanwhile, the Taliban are presumably fighting back and appear to be the ‘good guys’ cleaning everything up.
Here’s this guy’s work over 5.5 years and final thesis on this topic if you want to read more. He highlights AQ vs IS, pointing out that this internal conflict (within Islam) is certainly not unprecedented but indeed the “most critical episode.”
Before we go further we should also note that the ‘K’ in ISKP stands for Khorasan, meaning the land of Afghanistan. The ISIS subgroup isn’t perhaps nearly as noteworthy as the fact that the mere mention of Khorasan, which will raise ‘red flags’ (or black flags?) for Quran-literate Muslims who know this prophecy:
“There will emerge from Khorasan (Afghanistan) black banners which nothing will repel until they are set up in Jerusalem” (Da’if) — Ahmad in al-Musnad, 14/383
We should also note that this verse was the IEA’s Twitter account bio in late August 2021. These are not just empty verses from the Quran which generally drive crazy fringe jihadists; these are powerful prophecies that are currently guiding the policies of at least one Islamic nation-state to believe that they themselves are the eschatological army of the soon-coming Muslim Caliph, and they’re boldly shouting it from their rooftop (Twitter bio). And all the other Muslims of the world are watching this closely [17:10–30:05].
Lest we say, “but the Taliban aren’t a legitimate nation and will never be recognized by the international community, etc.” let’s consider some Islamic nations who are.
Other Muslim-Majority Nations
We’ll look at two primarily.
Turkey
It is worth reading more (or watching more) about Turkey’s recent history and current trajectory. While a NATO member and thus presumably promoting “democratic values,” preventing conflict, and “committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes,” we might think they’re above reproach.
Essentially after taking power (with similarities to how Hitler did), Turkey’s current leader Erdogan has been purging his own military of anyone that isn’t going his direction, crushing journalistic objectivity, and has continued taking advantage of middle-eastern instability and exported his proxies across the region to protect and proliferate Islam through jihad. These efforts of establishing new military bases and proxies (including using their own strong military to encroach upon land (Iraq, Armenia) and water (Greece, Cyprus) in the name of ‘taking back’ land that was once theirs as the Ottoman Empire) have received virtually no pushback from the international community and have also increased loyalty to Turkey amongst the Islamic countries and communities that find themselves supported by her.
Erdogan has a past of religious hatred and public support for jihad, and has proven by his recent threats (Bulgaria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel) and expansion that nothing has changed. Whereas once (1949) Turkey had been the first Muslim-majority nation to recognize Israel and cooperate with her, Erdogan has flipped the script back to vehement anti-semitism and has actively supported the groups (like Hamas) whose sole purpose is to ‘liberate’ Jerusalem and exterminate the Jewish ‘occupiers,’ through the facade of ‘humanitarian aid’ and letting some of Hamas’s top men operate from within Turkey.
This is to say nothing of its support of ISIS in 2014 and how Turkey still aims to exterminate the [peaceful] Kurdish people who defeated ISIS on Turkey’s border, claiming that the Kurds are ‘terrorists.’ Russia and Syria have been helping with this military campaign (more later) and it’s not just through use of bombs. And why? Surely it’s not mere coincidence that the Iraqi Kurds are pursuing peace with Israel in an unprecedented way, despite the unexplainable risk.
These are some of many examples of things that Turkey isn’t ‘supposed’ to do, but simply doesn’t care and knows that it is dominant and unchallenged in the region by NATO or anyone else. In fact, I saw a strong suggestion that Turkey wouldn’t hesitate to attack even US troops in Syria, where it is partnering with Bashar Assad’s genocidal regime (as well as Russia and Iran) to exterminate the Kurdish people and “root out” US troops:
Turkey wants what it wants and it doesn’t care who knows it. Hunting down opposition around its borders is only the beginning, and note that it’s not simply political; it’s religious.
Since Erdogan took office in ’02, Turkey’s own ‘Religious Affairs’ budget has increased 20x (building mosques, imam salaries, Quran schools, etc.), which is going to be 5x higher than the country’s Intelligence budget and 2x Culture & Tourism. Islamic revival and secular deconstruction is happening. The youth in Turkey (even the secular youth) are fascinated with the merger of biblical and islamic prophecy, even more so than most Christians [26:25–27:00].
Erdogan even converted the Middle East’s largest church back into a mosque and had a big jihadi prayer parade there in July 2020, with a literal sword of conquest present in the ceremony, saying from the ‘podium’ that it was a “resurrection” “heralding the liberation of the Al-Aqsa mosque” in Jerusalem, and the “footsteps of the will of Muslims around the world” to re-establish the Caliphate [47:00–57:15]. Indeed, it’s no surprise that Erdogan has made no bones about his desire for Jerusalem (“our city”) where lies the throne of the Caliphate. He’s been pumping in money (thereby winning more loyalty and support) to Palestine, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, Waqf, etc. and even suggesting Turkish military presence in Jerusalem.
In 2023–24 we’ll have the 100 year anniversary of the defeat of the last grand caliphate which governed the Islamic world, the Ottoman Empire (of which Turkey was formed out of, as the caliphate was dissolved, and made into a secular state). They are well-aware and making big plans, in every sector, foreign policy and defense included. Not to mention building a new crescent-shaped military headquarters in order to “instill fear in enemies and trust in allies.”
What about Afghanistan? The Taliban’s many suitors (including Turkey) immediately started reaching out to offer help mining Afghanistan’s natural resources and rebuilding infrastructure (Turkey, with Qatar, jumped right into securing the airport). In this, the Taliban spoke highly of their relationship with Turkey and welcomed their ‘most-needed’ help, essentially admitting in the same breath that they don’t know how to govern a country properly (true). Turkey, wanting of course to position itself in this ‘new world order’ where the West’s influence diminishes, no doubt sees incredible geographic and political advantage to controlling Afghanistan (not to mention that they will inherently see this as their ancient Ottoman land anyways, to be taken or otherwise controlled). Controlling Kabul could be the key to influence over Iran, Pakistan, China, and Russia, and keeping the Afghan refugees out of Europe will increase relations with Europe as well while Turkey still aims at being part of the EU by ’23.
Given the EU desire, we might expect Erdogan to use some politically-savvy buzzword-filled disclaimers similar to the US government’s approach to negotiations with the Taliban (more on that below), such as, “Let’s see how inclusive the Taliban is, and then we’ll talk to them [even though we’re already talking to them].”
Kind of like this:
To put more words in Erdogan’s mouth, it would seem that since this Afghanistan debacle, Turkey is reaching out (this is a Turkish news agency, mind you) to the UAE (despite a rocky relationship and last year’s Abraham Accords!) as if to say, “Brother, remember our common cause. There’s a power vacuum and we can rule it if you come back to our side.” Conjecture? You decide. Point is, the ‘crazies in the desert’ (AQ, Taliban, IS) aren’t the only ones who see the caliphate on the horizon (which includes the taking of Jerusalem and the extermination of Israel). It’s all in the book, and they’re following it.
Iran
Let’s look to the other end of the spectrum — the Shi’ite Muslims (largely in Iran). While Iran tends to see itself as the ‘defender of Shi’ites,’ I think you’ll quickly notice shared interests and intertwined relations with Sunnis.
Without beating around the bush on this one, let’s just say they’re the same for now. They’ve essentially got holidays where they celebrate the hopeful annihilation of the Jewish people.
Hossein Salami, Deputy Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard; Tehran, July 1, 2016:
“Today, more than ever, there is fertile ground — with the grace of God — for the annihilation, the wiping out and the collapse of the Zionist regime. Tens of thousands of other high-precision, long-range missiles, with the necessary destructive capabilities, have been placed in various places throughout the Islamic world. They are just waiting for the command so that when the triggers are pulled, the accursed black dot will be wiped off the geopolitical map of the world.”
This is one good reason (as if we need any more) why it might be good to keep Iran from building nukes, but of course we can go on. It would seem that despite the Iran-gripped Iraq going to great lengths in order to restore peace and not be an area of conflict, they’ll still stifle any mention of peace with Israel.
Iran seems to care very little for the ‘rules,’ though until it gains more power it will continue to play by some of them (save for assassinating Israeli businessmen). This is evidenced in part by their naval conflicts. They have a recent history of seizing, attacking, and even blatantly stealing whatever ships they feel like. It would seem they’re more careful with relationships they care about (China, Russia, Qatar, Turkey) but notice that the US is not on that list, as well as, obviously, Israel.
Regarding Afghanistan, Iran of course welcomes the Taliban with open arms. They had already met in July and shaken hands as fellow Muslims, and have already sent a plane full of diplomats to Afghanistan. As with virtually any Muslim-majority country in the Middle East, having the US gone means more freedom and more opportunity even if there’s a game of Middle-Eastern politics to play in its wake. Iran has had a relationship with the Taliban & AQ for decades, letting them travel through, hosting their leaders and their families (which as we discussed above may have dual motives), and it appears that Iran aided in the Taliban’s takeover by opening/closing borders according to their desired outcome and playing a “major role” overall, maybe even supplying weapons (as they have before). Note that Iran has also long-supported Hamas (which is Sunni by the way) in Gaza as well.
This is to say nothing of Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy ‘militia’ which is basically running/governing the country of Lebanon, much like Hamas in Gaza. Much study has gone into the question of how to contain Hezbollah. The West wants to help a suffering people, but its corrupt leaders who are puppets (or hostages) of Hezbollah, the ‘state within a state,’ keep this aid from doing real good to the Lebanese people. They are certainly not lacking for funding (though it might surprise you where some of it comes from and who doesn’t want the world to know). Iran of course continues to fund them (even recently under the guise of economic savior, despite warnings from the US) making the country of Lebanon more-and-more dependent upon Iran and therefore likely to do its bidding. With Lebanon being of such geographical strategic importance (for nations who want to obliterate Israel), it is not surprising to see them all stepping in to ‘help’ in the midst of Lebanon’s crises.
The Afghanistan situation, as with virtually any other nation that hates the West, has shown weakness and proven a decrease in Western influence, which has therefore emboldened Iran (as well as all Muslims) to keep developing nukes at a fast pace and to start doing war drills with others (Russia and China). Iran will continue to support these jihadist groups under the table and ‘play both sides’ as they thrive off of seeming instability in their region by pointing to other ‘bad guys’ and draw attention away from themselves.
Kashmir, India, and Pakistan
Speaking of proxies and the ‘crazy jihadists’’ not-so-secretive funding and support from bigger world players who have to be (only slightly) more careful about what they do, Pakistan’s ISI is (and has been) a big string-puller on the whole intermingled relationship between the Taliban & AQ. Don’t forget that Pakistan was where Osama Bin Laden was hiding. Pakistan is the greenhouse where the Taliban has been nurtured back to health and Pakistan is who directed the Taliban & AQ in some of their most devastating attacks of the war.
According to this long tweet thread, Afghanistan has historically been the breeding ground for Islamic insurgents entering Kashmir from the west, as long as Pakistan’s ISI has enabled it (mostly, they have). While India’s military and border security is significantly better than it once was, Afghanistan is once again a breeding ground for expansionistic jihad and the ISI will be less concerned with their western boarder, and now surely look to Kashmir actively or passively. Likely they will actively help, or else the jihadists in Afghanistan who want Kashmir will come against the ISI (as they already have been doing) with the help of Taliban’s Pakistani arm (TTP) (whose attacks have been on the rise), and Pakistan doesn’t want that.
In short, all jihadists west of India have less to worry about, so as soon as the dust settles in Afghanistan (and potentially after winter passes), they will look east, to their border with India, and reclaim Kashmir. Turkey, for example, sees this as an ‘Islamic cause,’ and has pressured India over it. Not surprisingly, at least one big Turkish media outlet points all kinds of fingers at India and suggests that Kashmiris need a Muslim savior.
It’s hard to know what kind of impact the claiming/reclaiming of Kashmir would have on India as a whole. India has the third-largest Muslim population in the world (~200M), many of whom have been very unhappy with India’s nationalistic agenda in recent years.
This is just one example of many, which is why I highlight it. We must remember that jihad is inherently expansionistic. Note that it’s hardly been a month and the Taliban is making plans against Afghanistian’s northern neighbor Tajikistan.
So, India is rightly concerned, and so far fending off attacks, but this is a region to watch.
Other ‘Big Dogs’
China:
China is no less out-spoken about their plans than Turkey or anyone else, even though we might not notice it in our Western bubble of petty bickering. They have problems of their own of course, but yet they still build and build, and continue to expand.
I’m going to try and focus more here on how China relates to Islam, but note that China is absolutely a force to be reckoned with, and has been slowly but surely rising in power (and not surprisingly ignoring the US). Even since the very beginning of 2020, we’ve seen China make aggressive moves against Indonesia, sink a Vietnamese fishing vessel, troll for oil in Malaysia’s waters, conduct naval drills with one of their aircraft carriers, and declared control over disputed waters, all in very clear symbolically and intentionally threatening fashion. In short, the West (and those more geographically threatened by China’s imposition — and/or cyber attacks) is scrambling to figure out what to do. Even this week, China ramped up its encroachment on Taiwanese airspace, and Western forces did naval exercises in response. Polarizing lines are being drawn for countries (like New Zealand) to soon pick a side, and it’s tough when China has such economic sway in the region.
Anyways, China and Islam.
China’s been essentially genocidal concerning its domestic Muslim Uyghur population, and jihadists have come against China in plenty of attacks because of its global expansion and influence in the Islamic world even though China largely doesn’t instigate foreign scuffles with Muslims.
In short, China hates Jihad. It’s one of their ‘three evils’ and it’s also been a self-proclaimed enemy and an active combatant against China’s expansion. See here, here, here, and here for more.
All that said, China was going to be an obvious winner in this Afghanistan thing. Despite the Taliban’s extremism, China began courting them immediately, even considering putting some of their military at the USA’s most prominent Afghan outpost. The Taliban have wanted relations with China since the last time they were in power, just as China has helped them all throughout the American ‘War on Terror.’ It’s no surprise then that the Taliban chose them as their premier partner (and has been willing to ignore/downplay issues like Uyghur genocide). ‘Main partner,’ meaning, at a bare minimum China will help the Taliban [re]build infrastructure (which serves the purposes of both groups) as well as affirming (and defending) their ‘leadership’ in Afghanistan.
China wants Afghan natural resources as well as access to Europe in the name of world domination. Related to Muslims however, China also sees this partnership as, ironically, a way to support Pakistan and make jihadists favor them and attack India instead, which, as we noted above, they will.
In recent years, the Islamic State is another player who has downplayed their former outspoken animosity concerning China (again, despite the Uyghur issue), and there is some potential biblical reason to believe that Communism and Jihad could more officially ‘marry’ in the context of shared interests. Namely, being common enemies of the USA/West.
Russia:
I don’t feel like much needs to be said about Russia. Russia will be Russia. The latest thing that caught my attention was this: Two leading corporate world powerhouses (Apple & Google) just recently blatantly supported political censorship in Russia. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions from that.
I do hope you’ve noticed the 5+ mentions of Russia so far (and more to come) peppered throughout conversations about various superpowers and jihadist states.
Russia is likewise a winner in Afghanistan, and reveals some degree of alliance with jihad (in the context of mutual interests) as it tries to expand its role in the Middle East (coordinating with Turkey regarding Afghanistan and Syria, selling weapons to India, Iran, and Syria, holding military drills with China & Iran, meeting with Jordan, expanding their navy, reaching out to the UAE to sell weapons and tech, etc.). France seems to be letting them get their fingers into West Africa too.
Indeed, “the post-American world that came in the wake of the US Global War on Terrorism is one where Turkey, Russia, China and Iran will work in concert and not against each other to weaken the US.” Again, mutual interests.
The US & The “War On Terror”
With Romans 13 in mind, while also acknowledging that unfortunately there is not much honor being earned by the current administration, my goal is not to dishonor the US. I do however think it is important to point out some of the ridiculousness as it illustrates what much of the world is seeing and why the influence of the West is diminishing. This is an important point as we see the complimentary rise of Islam throughout the world.
Big picture on Afghanistan first. Despite the underground church in Afghanistan thriving under persecution, as we should expect, this region is the “graveyard of empires,” so we also probably shouldn’t have expected anything different regarding the USA’s efforts. After reading this article and this article, I’m also saddened but unsurprised at the corruption inherent (by way of human nature) in the whole operation over the course of the past two decades. It seems we could very well argue that the dream of a proper Afghan government was always destined to fail based on the USA’s poor planning and execution of the whole campaign. And now we’re back to square one (and trying to get people to forget and move past it).
Nonetheless, our presence served a key purpose, and the way in which we left was, well…my vocabulary is found lacking for both the deep sadness and the laughability of the whole thing. It’s like the best bad joke ever.
This was a good medium-length overview of the war from a [seemingly] average Afghan perspective, highlighting some of the corruption and unnecessary bloodshed throughout the war, as well as some initial thoughts when the US pulled out. Prior to the pullout though, the US ‘peace’ deal (in Qatar) in 2020 was initially hopeful, but soon appeared very bad for Afghans and even at this point they knew they were betrayed. It was also at this point that the Taliban were clearly (in hindsight) preparing for their takeover.
(Of course, this makes the anticipated subsequent refugee crisis somewhat of a nightmare; if the Taliban were planning this for months, how might they utilize emigrating refugees for terror? Uncanny timing for the Homeland Security Chief of Staff to abruptly resign if you ask me, but of course we can only speculate.) (For what it’s worth, on the topic of refugees, consider the gospel opportunity.)
Not only did we leave a bunch of gear for them, but we required that they release 5000 prisoners, some (maybe many) of whom turned right back around to jump [back] into roles as fighters for the Taliban. All of this effectually hamstrung the Afghan government, who the US then pointed the finger at saying “they didn’t fight back.” There has been some resistance happening amongst the Afghans in the Panjshir valley, but it’s been hard for me to figure out what news is trustworthy, and I don’t have a very optimistic outlook on it as I see the powers backing the Taliban (i.e. Pakistan).
My biggest question has been what is going to happen with the US citizens and allies left behind, at the complete mercy (an ironic word) of the Taliban. So far, I’ve only seen that there has been two planes (from Qatar) retrieving these hostages (but let’s also note how Qatar is playing both sides — remember Doha is where the Taliban has their ‘political office’). Our representative to Afghanistan (@US4AfghanPeace) has only parroted the hollow boasts, threats, and commitments of the president’s administration, offering to bring people home but not seeming to actually do anything.
Except for sending humanitarian aid, which arguably just goes to the Taliban, similar to our Hezbollah discussion above. Some have argued that humanitarian aid shouldn’t be ‘conditional.’ I’ll let you be the judge.
In fact, it has almost seemed like the US was more concerned (and comically, surprised) a year after the Qatar negotiations [with all-male negotiators] that there weren’t any women appointed to lead the Taliban’s new government (which of course is a laughable idea to the Taliban). But of course, we’re still waiting to see if they’ll change their ways.
Even though they all (AQ, Taliban, IS, etc.) want to, quite literally, exterminate Israel (and probably something similar to the US), American leadership basically sees that ISIS are the most crazy and therefore has more-or-less been helping the Taliban and may continue to utilize their support against ISIS. Of course, this dependency upon the Taliban is ‘needed,’ because now that we’ve pulled out all of our troops and our allies are being hunted and killed, we are essentially blind as far as intel to defend against ISIS. While it’s been argued that our drones and satellites give us what we need, we tried to strike IS with a drone and ended up killing zero ISKP fighters and instead killed 10 civilians, 7 of which were children. This was later confirmed and the US apologized.
US reports suggest we can engage the Taliban with diplomacy, conversation, incentives, and disincentives, and that they can thereby keep Taliban and AQ from growing, suggesting that they care ‘deeply’ for international recognition and that alienating them would backfire. We’re calling the Taliban our ‘partner,’ admitting only that the track records of their leaders are ‘challenging’ (at least one of them being on the FBI’s Most Wanted list with a $10M reward). Despite the Taliban (& AQ) showing their true colors all along the way, we’ve hardly been able to make any critical comments, and have tied our own hands regarding future attacks.
In short, the US has been banking on the fact that the Taliban want international recognition and inclusion, so let’s hope they choose “access to swag from the U.N. gift shop” over a jihadist caliphate if they ever have to choose. This was a good long article emphasizing some of the key lessons we’ve learned over the decades and how we’ve blatantly ignored them.
What about the US and the rest of the Middle East?
Regarding American troops, I would guess we’ll see something very similar happen in other key places (Syria, Iraq, etc.) despite the real threats of ISIS (once the Afghanistan thing fully cycles out of the news perhaps, which it is, unless it’s Americans worried about whether their new-age crystals are ethically sourced).
Regarding politics and foreign policy, let’s look briefly at the two most obvious threats discussed so far just to get a flavor for what the US is doing (or not doing): Turkey, a supposed friend, and Iran, a supposed enemy.
To President Biden’s credit (which has recently been near-impossible to come by), he stiff-armed Turkey in September (and has continued to work toward restraining Turkey), despite its attempts to posture itself on the same ‘side’ as the US:
Of course, Erdogan was already threatening to attack US troops in Syria (discussed above) so we’re [rightly] not as close friends as Erdogan would hope [when it suits him].
And interestingly, as a matter of foreign policy, we supposedly need Turkey (and Saudi Arabia) to keep Iran at bay. This is somewhat laughable because Turkey and Iran are actually very close because of shared conviction on the big things, like Jerusalem [50:00–52:09]. It’s also laughable because the current US administration just decoupled its 76-year relationship with Saudi Arabia (in what some have called “diplomatic arson”) for the sake of siding with Iranian proxy terrorists instead, causing Saudi Arabia to turn to Russia for help instead.
But the US didn’t really care about stopping Iran from building nukes [explicitly to use on Israel] anyways.
I read a tweet that said:
“If you can’t see a connection between the Biden Administration posturing to re-enter a nuclear agreement w/Iran, re-activating Obama era funding for ‘relief’ in Gaza, & lifting pressure off Iranian proxies in Mid East, w/1000’s of expensive rockets raining on Israel, look harder”
I might add, more recently, the attempted discontinuation of some of Israel’s Iron Dome funding, needed for restock after defending Israel in May.
I’ll be the first to say I’m glad I am not the one(s) in office. I don’t know how to lead a country (and a global superpower at that), so respect where respect is due. But my point is that the influence of the West is diminishing. This is important for this discussion as we see the complimentary rise of Islam throughout the world.
The dynamic now created: The Islamic world has pushed out two superpowers through jihad and is emboldened. At the same time, those who would look to the West for support against jihad can no longer trust the West. Indeed, this “will not stay in Kabul.”
Islam: Internal Conflict or Unity?
We have to acknowledge the above dynamic as we look to this issue of Israel as Islam unites against her.
We’ve already acknowledged some political alliances and partnerships above, but let’s put it in the context of Islam, the Caliphate, and also biblical eschatology.
Firstly, Islam. Aren’t there two sides and infighting amongst Muslims? How can they ever be joined?
Again, mutual interests.
We’ve already more-or-less established that the Sunni vs Shi’ite argument is bologna when it comes to the real-world functional relationships between, say, Iran and groups like AQ or the Taliban. As Danielle Pletka states:
“In a perfect world, Salafis would demand the Shiites embrace the true path or be eliminated along with other unbelievers. But this is not a perfect world, and both Sunni and Shiite fundamentalists allow for both religious and political expediency in pursuit of a higher goal. In the West, this is called realpolitik. And both the Taliban and the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran are masters of it.”
“Does Iran like the Taliban? No. But it hates the United States of America more. And that is where the mullahs of Iran and the new rulers of the so-called Emirate of Afghanistan see eye to eye, 100 percent.”
Israel knows this better than anyone. While Israel as a human entity is not ever entirely above reproach, anti-semitism is rising rapidly and the news tends to most often skew the truth in opposition to Israel. Again, they see this better than anyone, and I would recommend reading their news outlets (or key Jewish voices on Twitter) every once in a while, lest we be blinded to these realities:
“Attacking Jews in Israel happens daily and is promoted by all Islamists. This is their “holy war” against Israel and anyone who stands in their way — Muslims and non-Muslims. Any recognition of Israel and its right to exist is considered a betrayal of Islam. It’s what justifies their support for terrorism and suicide bombings, which they call “martyrdom.” Their goal is another Holocaust mandated, they preach, by their “prophet, Muhammad.” Ultimately, they boast, they seek world domination under their Caliphate.”
The Old Testament tells us that the antichrist — the king from the north — will command a ten-nation confederacy (and conversely note the southern kingdom of those who stand with Israel — we might discuss the Abraham Accords if we had more time).
It’s probably no surprise I would agree with the guys at FAI that Turkey seems to fit the bill, and the chess pieces are moving. Turkey’s actively working to unite others in its region, and as we said above, Turkey’s already working closely with some of the big dogs and big crazies (Russia, Iran, Syria, etc.), and it’s even in at least one official group with China, Russia, Iran, and others already. Not to mention its various militia ‘fingers’ bearing down on weaker Islamic countries in the region gaining control and loyalty. If this stuff intrigues you, give another 45 min to this and see what you think.
It’s not just Turkey of course. Iran just appointed a Sunni Kurd as its naval commander. This is unprecedented. As Frantzman says:
…this could be a sign of Iran’s opening to religious minorities as a signal of its openness to the Taliban. The Taliban have also reformed their sectarian views of Shi’ites, according to statements. For instance, Taliban officials visited the Dasht-e-Barchi Hazara neighborhood of Kabul and showed respect at a Shi’ite mourning day during the month of Muharram. This symbolism is important.
Why is the symbolism important? Because this isn’t just any Shi’ite mourning day. After decades of bickering about who should have been the first caliph after Muhammed, this was the day where now-Shi’ite Muslims mourn the very battle that finally tore the tribes in two, and the death of their would-be caliph, Muhammed’s grandson. Again, “Iran [the main Shi’ite state] does not have ideological qualms about supporting violent Sunni extremist groups,” and now they’re even appointing Sunnis to unprecedented positions of leadership in their armed forces.
Remember also that the Taliban met (in Qatar) with a Russian counterpart near Turkey’s border. We’re not just talking about unorganized crazies in the mountains plagued by their own infighting anymore. They’re more and more united around their common mission, and they don’t need to wait for a European superpower to help “annihilate [Jews] from Arab lands” anymore — they will simply attempt it themselves one of these days. Yet it would also seem that, once again, Muslims find themselves “natural allies” with superpowers who are still glad to help.
Practical Application
Being born in the early 90’s, and with the exception of 9/11, I have grown up living in a period of time wherein, in some ways, the Islamic world has seemed quiet (or otherwise largely suppressed by the West). It seems silly to type that, but it’s true in my experience. I have always figured the US will do what it needs to do and the crazies will never affect my life in the Midwest.
Yet if this perceived ‘quietness’ is accurate at all, this period of time is actually unique. It’s been less than a century since the Ottomans had incredible power over the ‘center of the earth.’ Even just 20 years ago, the trajectory changed; The number of “Sunni Islamic militants” worldwide is expected to be around four times higher than it was on September 11, 2001. Some have even called the recent rise of Islam the ‘third world war.’ It’s the revival of an ancient threat that recent generations haven’t yet known, but will.
Sure, Turkey might end up being of little consequence. But whether you believe it or not, the antichrist, whoever he might end up being, will lead a revived empire (p.61–102), and whether or not that’s the caliphate, our children will likely grow up with a revived caliphate (which includes its scripturally mandated genocide of the Jewish people) [57:10–1:06:50]. We have an obligation to help them grapple with this and to look to Jesus, and we ourselves.
Here’s another consideration if you grew up with the Left Behind books like me:
If we assume the antichrist is going to be a beloved caucasian man from Rome or some European superpower nation, and that he’s going to lead an entirely global empire (which he won’t), then we’ll be on guard for this Pope-like figure— great! And likely, we’ll think, “I don’t see that happening anytime soon.” Meanwhile, the actual antichrist will be consolidating his [limited] empire (p39–55) right under our proverbial noses (even though the rest of the world seems to be watching) and it will surprise us. And I really don’t think Jesus intends for us to be surprised. Quite the contrary.
The ‘good’ news is, I think it will be more obvious than we think (though no less devastating).
Why does it matter? We can’t stop this from happening anyways, right? Right. But we are called to far more than couch-surfing.
Shouldn’t we want to be aware of the antichrist’s rise and his plans so that we can stand against him? If Islamic eschatology is truly our eschatology flipped on its head…if their messiah is our antichrist, and their antichrist is our Messiah…then I’d suggest that we watch the Islamic world and oppose it’s jihadist leaders (if not for purely humanitarian reasons), even as we love the Muslims around us and point them to Jesus, the true Messiah.
Let’s start reading the Bible and the news with less ethnocentric (or geographically USA-centric) eyes. And let us know where we stand regarding Jerusalem, the true center of the earth. It may become more practical than we think.
