Things I Believe About COVID

For context, I’ve spent roughly 100 hours over the last four months looking at statistics, scholarly articles, media and social media, and talking to friends who are scientists. I have a background in cognitive science. I have have not experienced symptoms nor have I been tested for COVID.

• It is quite possible you will not have symptoms even if you were to become infected/test positive.
• It is unlikely your kids will spread COVID asymptomatically.
• As a 50 year old with no comorbidity factors, I will bet my bottom dollar you won’t die of COVID (see here as well)…
• … and if you become infected, it’s almost certain you will not need to be hospitalized…
• … and you will almost certainly survive hospitalization, assuming the MATH+ Hospital Treatment Protocol for COVID-19 is followed (see here as well).
• I am almost certain your 75+ year old relatives with no comorbidity factors will survive getting COVID, provided that they follow the MATH+ protocol.
• If your 75+ relatives with one or more comorbidity factors get sick with COVID it is quite possible they will die of it.
• It is almost certain that you won’t become infected or spread COVID if you are outdoors.
• I am highly confident that masks make only a negligible difference in curbing the spread of COVID outdoors.
• I am almost certain you can spend a few minutes indoors with asymptomatic people and not get infected, as long as you follow common sense.*

Unlikely means less than 10%

Quite possible means between 10% and 90%

Highly Confident means over 90%

Almost Certainly means over 99%

I’d Bet My Bottom Dollar means 1 in a 1,000+ chance it is true/false.

* common sense = don’t spend more than 10 minutes in close quarters, don’t get coughed or sneezed on, sanitize hands after.