Is Colin Kaepernick Any Good?

Randy Marquis
Aug 9, 2017 · 3 min read

As quarterback Colin Kaepernick waits for an NFL job, a common argument from those who defend the right of NFL owners to keep Kaepernick unemployed is that he just isn’t that good a player anyway.

But is that true?

Put aside the politics of his protest and his potential to distract a team from winning games (lots of players do that, usually in a much more destructive fashion).

Let’s answer just this one question: is Colin Kaepernick good enough to play in the NFL?

Put aside his supposed contract demands (Brock Osweiler and Mike Glennon will make over $15 million this year; Brian Hoyer, Josh McCown, Nick Foles, Drew Stanton and Ryan Fitzpatrick are among those making more than $3 million).

The answer is a resounding yes.

Let’s look at one metric, quarterback rating (QBR), which tries to quantify the effectiveness of those who play that position. It isn’t a perfect metric, but since consensus top quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady rank first and third all-time, it’s probably pretty good.

There are only ten active players who have posted a higher career QBR than Kaepernick: Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger (talk about distractions), Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton and (surprise!) Matt Schaub. Nine of those ten are starters in the league.

Behind Kaep include starting quarterbacks Carson Palmer, Derek Carr, Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill (as well as the man recently signed to replace him, Jay Cutler), Cam Newton, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Joe Flacco and Eli Manning.

Also behind Kaep are Hall of Famers Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Jim Kelly and Troy Aikman. Now I realize the game is played differently now, but we’re not talking about the Otto Grahams or even the Roger Staubachs. These are guys who played during the advent of the vertical passing game and, again, all are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

So, yes, by at least this one metric, Kaep is good enough to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s certainly better than Blake Bortles, McCown, Chad Henne, Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez and others who may suit up for their teams this season.

But what about the fact his career record is 28–30, including an unsightly 1–10 last year? I’d suggest his team was really bad last year, and if you remove that from his ledger, his winning percentage jumps to 57% (27–20), which is certainly acceptable. In fact, in his first three seasons in the league, his record was 25–14. Kaep can win games just fine if the other guys on the field are good too.

How about the completion percentage, which currently stands at 59.8%? Yup, it’s not great. But it’s also better than two-time Super Bowl winner Eli Manning’s (59.7%), former #1 overall pick Andrew Luck’s (59.2%) and other starting QBs such as Bortles (58.8%), McCown (59.1%) and Cam Newton (58.4%).

By virtually any measure, Colin Kaepernick has performed at a level as good or better than about half the starting quarterbacks in the NFL. And that doesn’t include the likes of Geno Smith (Giants), Case Keenum (Vikings), Brandon Weeden (Texans) and Sanchez (Cowboys) among the former starters who are now backups for their respective teams.

Colin Kaepernick is mostly definitely good enough to play in the NFL. He’s probably good enough to be a starter, in fact.

So the question is: why isn’t he?

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