What (most) tech analysts don’t get about the iPhone
Today I read a typical article about how Android is gaining ground over iOS, and how harder it gets for Apple to create excitement with each new iPhone release. Here is why they’re wrong.
- “The hype around every new iPhone is decreasing”
Absolutely. If you strip off the novelty that Apple tries to push with each new iPhone — more or less successfully (Siri, Retina display, Touch ID) - every new release is mostly an improvement of technical specs : faster, lighter, slimmer, better camera, you name it. Nothing compared to the global buzz, impatient excitement, and media astonishment we experienced with the first gen iPhone launch. Of course, at the time, Apple was creating the smartphone category, the world was holding its breath… and Steve Jobs was still alive. Awesome.
But let’s consider facts.
You know how many iPhones 1 Apple sold ?
6,1 million.
Despite the much more limited buzz and media excitement, guess how many iPhone 5 moved ?
172 millions.
28 times more.
Of course the smartphone category has grown in 6 years.
But still, conclusion is : what some people write / tweet / say about products is one thing, but where the rest of the world put their money is far more significant. Actions speak louder than words.
- iOS vs Android : one versus a million
There is an exponentially increasing number of manufacturers offering Android phones. Sure.
There may be hundreds or thousands of them, but only a tiny fraction of them is actually competing with Apple. Mainly Samsung, LG and HTC.
Apple has currently no interest in selling $200 or $300 phones.
The smartphone market is increasing globally, but the average budget is far, far away from Apple price tags. On the market segment where Apple is, (450$ and more devices), it is not losing ground.
Conclusion : Apple is not competing with hundreds of Android phones. It competes with five.
Secondly, the number of Android phone makers is not only a danger for iOS.
It is also an opportunity : when profits from Android users are shared among a large manufacturer base (again, it is not true if you look at value sales), anyone switching to iOS is giving money only to Apple.
And I am not even speaking about the much higher margin that Apple makes compared to any Android competitor — that is also the upside of limiting your product range.
And I am not either speaking about the mess that the Android eco system has become, with way too many models, more and more running outdated versions of the OS, on low cost devices that, hardware-wise, won’t ever be able to upgrade.
- “When you’re choosing a smartphone, you’re choosing an ecosystem and you’re doing that for the long-term.”
You speak as a tech journalist. Zoom out.
If you take a more rational market research, you will realise that most people don’t even know what an environment or an OS is.
This is no longer PC vs Mac. Today, almost all apps are available on both platforms. Most service are web based and work with both iOS and Android.
So no, people don’t primarily buy an environment. They buy a device — with a price tag, a feel, specs, qualities and flaws, and a brand — whether it is an Android or iOS phone.
- “Apple’s going to have to work harder than ever to convince me that switching ecosystems is ever going to be worthwhile.”
Well, guess what, from a marketing perspective, Apple is not primarily trying to convince you.
You belong to their most difficult target. People who are quite happy with their Android phone, have never owned an iPhone (and however, write about it) — and are tech journalists who look at things through their buzz-o-meter.
But from a business perspective, Apple will live and grow without you. Basic fact checking : with each new release, the Cupertino firm is able to move significantly more units, faster — and at a higher price tag.
I bet the iPhone 6 will be no exception.
(Edit : I was right.)