Europe’s Mini-Putins
In a dangerous and ill-conceived move, the Obama Administration recently lifted sanctions against nine state-owned companies in Belarus as a reward for the Belarusian government’s release of a few political prisoners. The action was a mistake for two reasons.
First, lifting the sanctions clearly violated U.S. law. The Belarus Democracy and Human Rights Act of 2004 stipulates the seven conditions that must be met prior to the lifting of sanctions. The release of political prisoners is the only condition of the seven that Belarus met. Even now, Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko continues to persecute activists and journalists and just last month “won” his fifth term in an election that was anything but free and fair. (The former KGB officer who now leads Russia was surely proud of this remarkable political achievement.)
Second, by making an enormous concession to yet another dictator, President Obama sent a dangerous signal to the rest of the region. His actions proclaimed that, during a time when NATO’s standing is in question, he will allow Russian President Putin’s corrosive influence over Eastern and Central Europe to expand.
Both the House and the Senate held hearings this year exploring Russian propaganda efforts. These were a good start. Now we need to dig deeper to understand all the levers of Russian pressure, including agents of Russian influence who occupy high political offices and own national and regional media outlets.
Belarusian strongman Lukashenko is one of several “mini-Putins” throughout Europe, officials who imitate Putin’s style of gaining and maintaining power by a combination of political and media control, restrictions on commercial activity, corruption and kleptocracy. Other members of the club include Czech President Milos Zeman, Czech Finance Minister Andrej Babis, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. And their connections to Putin are not merely stylistic. Each of these leaders have offered support and political cover to Putin, including condemning EU and U.S. sanctions over Putin’s annexation of Crimea. More recently, Fico and Zeman — both of whom lead NATO countries — handed Putin an important political victory by attending Moscow’s celebration of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, a politically charged event boycotted by the rest of Europe.
It is no accident that kleptocracy and corruption are being practiced so openly. Encouraging them is a tool of statecraft for Putin, one that he and his former Soviet KGB officers used to great effect. And the outcome is very predictable. They weaken voter confidence in democracy and the institutions that are essential to a free and open society while empowering corrupt officials who then help advance Putin’s aggressive international agenda. Putin understands that there is little need for him to invade neighboring countries if he can manipulate and control their leaders.
To be clear, Lukashenko and the others are pawns on the chessboard. Putin is the chess player — a clever and strategic thinker whose recent moves into the Middle East are but the most recent illustration of his primary objectives: to maintain his iron grip on power by distracting from Russia’s abysmal economy, and to expand his influence throughout the region, dividing NATO and undermining the Atlantic alliance.
All of this should alarm those who, like me, believe NATO remains a critical guarantor of world peace and stability and arguably the most successful treaty organization in U.S. history. The transatlantic alliance has been a bulwark of freedom and is especially important as the world faces the barbarity unleashed by ISIS and al Qaeda, and the destabilizing prospect of a nuclear Iran.
If we are serious about stopping the erosion of NATO, the backsliding of democracy and Russian revanchism, President Obama needs to do more than talk. When it comes to Vladimir Putin, rhetorical skills are never enough. Only a robust and unified NATO can prevent Russian from clawing back its former satellite states, and that will require U.S. leadership and engagement.
The president needs to persuade our NATO allies to increase their defense spending. The U.S. military and Intelligence Community need to do a better job of sharing intelligence and coordinating our military efforts. The president must show his commitment to keep existing sanctions in place until they have achieved their desired outcome. Finally, he must stop the kid-glove treatment of dictators like Lukashenko. History has proven that, when it comes to henchmen, talk and coddling will never help us achieve our security goals.
