UFC 220: Daniel Cormier vs Volkan Oezdemir
Cormier and Oezdemir entered 2018 on very different trajectories and both have several major questions to answer about where they stand in their current careers. How much does Cormier have left after a traumatic 2017? Can Oezdemir look good past the first 90 seconds of a fight? Can the challenger defend takedowns against a talented wrestler? Let us delve into what will be the first UFC title fight of 2018…
Volkan Oezdemir had an amazing 2017. He entered the UFC as a last minute replacement in a fight against ranked contender Ovince St Preux, presumably there to serve as a victim against whom St Preux could bounce back after losing his previous two fights. Oezdemir upset the applecart however, eking out a split decision victory in a significant upset and immediately propelling himself into the light-heavyweight top 10. Most (myself included) assumed this was a one off performance and were were shocked when Oezdemir promptly knocked out Misha Cirkunov and Jimi Manuwa a grand total of seventy seconds, earning himself a spot on the shortlist for 2017's fighter of the year.
For Daniel Cormier on the other hand, I imagine 2017 was a year he would like to put behind him sooner rather than later. After an underwhelming win over a seemingly unprepared Anthony Johnson, Cormier faced his nemesis, and the only fighter to have defeated him in his career thus far, Jon Jones. After a competitive first two rounds, Cormier was caught by a Jones headkick and finished with strikes on the ground, seemingly marking the end of his title reign. In September however, Cormier unexpectedly found himself in possession of the title once again, after Turinabol (an anabolic steroid) was found in Jones’ system following the fight.
Styles Make Fights
Daniel Cormier is at his best in the clinch, as BJJ Scout (look his channel up on Youtube if you haven’t already) has pointed out, he likes to bully his opponents to the fence, using an underhook and superior head positioning to pin them in place whilst using his free hand to hit them with short, sharp punches. He also seeks out a similar position in the middle of the ring, commonly employing the single collar tie which he can use to pull his opponents’ heads down and slam them with uppercuts:
Interestingly however, this position is also where Volkan Oezdemir has done much of his best work in the UFC so far. The Swiss fighter is capable of generating immense power with his clinch punches despite them often only travelling a small distance. Misha Cirkunov was knocked stiff by a short right hook/cross as he pursued Oezdemir, trying to slap on a single collar tie of his own. Jimi Manuwa meanwhile was first stunned by a left hook in the same position as he and Oezdemir achieved the single collar tie grip on each other. Both of these knockout sequences began with Oezdemir’s back pinned against the fence, considering that this is the same position where almost all Cormier opponents find themselves sooner or later, it will be interesting to see if the Swiss challenger can get anything going in the fight’s clinches.
Having said all this, it is hard to imagine Oezdemir (who has never fought longer than three rounds) matching Cormier’s gruelling pace in a clinch war, particularly if the fight reaches the championship rounds. The Olympic wrestler is also almost certain to try and take the fight to ground sooner or later in order to impose his superior grappling. It’s unclear how the challenger will react to the threat of Cormier’s takedowns, as thus far in his UFC career he has only had to defend against four takedown attempts and all of these were from the less than stellar wrestler Ovince St Preux.
Possible Gameplans
For Volkan Oezdemir this is a very challenging matchup. Aside from the unanswered questions about his takedown defence, it is also worth acknowledging that he’s not exactly Willie Pep when it comes to his striking defence either. Against St Preux, Oezdemir repeatedly backed himself up against the fence when pressured and this was where St Preux found his greatest success in the fight, repeatedly pummelling the Swiss striker with hard punches. To his credit, at least Oezdemir showed he has a good chin, eating St Preux’s best shots without flinching:
Oezdemir should try and avoid being driven into a similar position against Cormier. Some lateral movement would go a long way towards maintaining distance with the champion, this distance would also help Oezdemir to make the most of his reach advantage and make it easier for him to bring his powerful kicks into play. He would also benefit from using straight punches and push kicks rather than his usual looping blows which run a far greater risk of leading to a clinch, where Cormier is in his element.
For Cormier himself, the key to victory would seem to be simple: - pressure. Oezdemir has shown himself to be far less comfortable when put on the back foot and driven backwards, Cormier’s strategy should be to try and exploit this weakness. In addition to pinning Oezdemir against the fence, the defending champion should also make the most of the challenger’s dubious defence to land punches as the challenger retreats, as he did against Alexander Gustafsson:
We can expect Cormier to wear down Oezdemir with a combination of his relentless wrestling and clinchwork, and it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him get the better of Oezdemir on the feet as well. As such, a late stoppage or decision victory for Cormier seems the most likely result. Having said this, we must keep in mind that many (including myself) were also highly skeptical of Oezdemir’s chances in his first three UFC appearances, and if there’s anything Oezdemir has become known for as a fighter thus far, it’s defying expectations…
