UFC 220: Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou
The UFC’s heavyweight division has been bereft of a true star attraction since Brock Lesnar left the sport. The division’s current champion Stipe Miocic has gone some way towards rebuilding interest in the 265lb weight-class and has established himself as something of a fan favourite. His upcoming title defence against Francis Ngannou is easily the most anticipated heavyweight title fight in recent years but also constitutes perhaps the most dangerous matchup of Miocic’s career…
Styles Make Fights
Both men are known for the power they carry in their fists however the way they deliver said fists to their targets is markedly different. Surprisingly for a man with an 83-inch reach, Ngannou doesn’t have much in the way of a jab, doing most of his best work at close distance. Largely content to potshot from the outside, Ngannou usually prefers his opponents to come to him, hitting them with counters as they come in, this is how he caught Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski as they were ducking down to one side. Stipe Miocic on the other hand has one of the better jabs in the UFC’s heavyweight division and uses it to set up powerful straight rights down the middle, often hitting opponents as they themselves attempt to land with wider, looping blows.
As discussed in my preview of Doo Ho Choi vs Jeremy Stephens, tighter, straighter punches tend to beat wider, loopier ones to the target. This could spell trouble for Francis Ngannou should he try and push the pace against Miocic, whilst similarly, the defending champion would be foolish to rush in against Ngannou and risk being on the receiving end of one of the same counter shots that laid out Arlovski and Overeem. The jab therefore should play a key role in Miocic’s approach to the striking portion of the fight.
It is also important to keep in mind Miocic’s grappling ability. Though he didn’t showcase it much in recent fights, he is most effective when working between the threat of a takedown and of his punches. Against Mark Hunt, another powerful counterpuncher, Miocic boxed patiently on the outside, feinting and out-jabbing Hunt whilst reactively taking him down whenever he committed to powerful swings, a similar strategy would be a good way to neutralise the threat of Ngannou’s powerful counters.
It’s unclear how Ngannou will react to an opponent who won’t rush in on him. Curtis Blades was able to repeatedly spear Ngannou with long jabs despite being at a 3-inch reach disadvantage (incidentally the same reach disadvantage Miocic will face). Eventually, as Blaydes wasn’t feinting, Ngannou was able to time him with arcing right hands and sweeping uppercuts, but the Cameroonian showed his susceptibility to straight punches. The strong wrestler Blaydes was also able to repeatedly take down Ngannou with deep penetration steps, and whilst Miocic is better at interception take downs, the threat is certainly there and will help him set up is punches.
To be fair to Ngannou, we haven’t seen him much recently, his last three fights barely lasting five minutes in total so it’s unclear how much he has grown as a fighter since his bout with Blaydes in early 2016. It’s perfectly possible that he may have added new wrinkles to his game, leg kicks in particular would seem a good area for the “predator” to develop, as Junior Dos Santos was able to land several hard kicks to Miocic’s thigh in their recent title fight. Having said this, I feel that with the right gameplan the fight is Miocic’s to lose, but this is the heavyweight division after all, if there was ever a weightclass in which the course of the fight can be turned around by a single punch it is this one, and even by the standards of the heavies, Ngannou has one hell of a punch…
