THE PRICE OF DEVELOPMENT
The first case of Ebola Virus Disease (EBV) was reported simultaneously in two remote villages in central Africa in 1976. The 2014 outbreak has been the most widespread and deadliest and has put tremendous strain on the health care facilities and resources in the most affected countries such that there are reports maternal and infant mortality could rise in Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia due to shortage of health workers mostly lost to Ebola.
The reservoir hosts, fruit bats, live in the tropical rainforests of Sub-Sahara Africa, therefore the disease is endemic to the region. This may partly explain why the occurrence has been on a steady increase.
One major reason is due to activities like resource extractions and urban expansion that bring humans into closer contacts with the reservoir hosts and/or other sick or dead infected animals. Sub-Sahara Africa plays host to some of the fastest growing economy in the world in the last decade. This rapid economic expansion, though did not translate into improved development in the delivery of public goods like quality healthcare services, has been built on massive extraction of natural resources. The risk associated with this model of development is quite on the same scale as that which the global economy faces from fossil-fuelled climate change. There are questions about the readiness of the world for the next epidemic. This could most likely happen again in Africa.
What most of the extractive activities going on in Africa have in common is Deforestation. With crude exploration as the surprising exception here. Mining of commodities like gold, copper, bauxite and diamond are a major culprit. Building new mines and expanding old ones usually lead to deforestation. Logging (both legal and illegal) has also proved a menace. West Africa is reported to have one of the world’s highest rates of regional deforestation. In Guinea where the first case of the latest Ebola outbreak was recorded, the rainforest has shrunk to less than one-fifth of its original size. In Liberia, more than half of the forests have been sold off to logging companies, and Sierra Leone is “seriously threatened” by deforestation.
URBAN EXPANSION
One other area that may prove to be a hot button in the very near future is Urbanization. Africa has the highest fertility rate in the world. Africa’s urban population as fraction of total population is projected to reach 52% by 2025. The figure for Nigeria is rapidly approaching 50%.
The role of urbanization in economic growth is undeniably important and Africa is destined to race ahead of the pack despite the highest urban poverty of any region in the world. There will no doubt be urban expansion in the form new settlement and expanding already built areas. This means Africa might have to ramp up its resource-led growth model at higher capacity and greater speed, it will further increase deforestation and further bring populations in contact with other animal life that may be carriers of even more unsettling viral strains. It seems Africa not only need to improve the provision of and access to public goods, it also has to assess the risks of its growth and development model.
Substantial habitat losses have risen due to increased demand for land for agriculture and grazing, and significant declines in game and fish populations have resulted from over-harvesting. Forests are cleared by burgeoning populations in search of land for farming, to build shelters and firewood for cooking. And once forests are converted for these purposes, they are usually lost forever.
RESOURCE EXTRACTION
Besides oil and gas, many African countries depend on the production of metal and mineral products. Out of the 54 countries in Africa, 24 rely on relatively few mineral products to generate more than 75% of their export earnings. The dependence on commodity earnings influences fiscal frameworks which exposes these countries to disruption caused by price shocks and, in part, low level of economic development. Paradoxically, the abundance of natural resources has not necessarily translated into desirable sustainable economic growth in Africa.
Resource extraction has environmental impacts. Humans, inadvertently, interact with the environment and consequently bear the brunt. Extractive industries activities are seen as necessary for economic growth (demand and supply; production and consumption) all geared towards satisfying human needs. Though localized and not usually seen as egregious as that which it wrecks on the planet’s ecosystem, the impact of extractive industries on the well-being of people is nonetheless lethal. Under ‘ecosystem-mediated’ health impacts, it was established that ecosystem changes lead to the loss of ecosystem services, which again leads to the displacement of people due to losses of livelihoods, conflicts and catastrophes.
The general consensus seems that underdevelopment rather than environmental factors exacerbated the recent Ebola outbreak. The World Health Organization had this to say;
“Ebola became epidemic in the affected areas in large part because of the weakness of the health systems. Particular structural weaknesses included insufficient numbers and distribution of qualified health workers, and inadequate surveillance, notification and information systems. Infrastructure, logistics, governance and medicines supply systems were similarly weak. The organization and management of health services was sub-optimal. Government health expenditure was low and inadequate to ensure universal access to basic services, whereas private expenditure — mostly in the form of direct out-of- pocket payments for health services — was regressively high…resilience.”
We may not witness an Ebola outbreak of this magnitude again, thanks to WHO and partner organizations but we can be sure to expect other novel viral strains due to our increasing encroachment on wildlife areas. Evidently, it is not so much about an outbreak as much as it is about epidemics. Swift response and solid health systems as provided by a responsible nation-state is key. The onus is on governments, policy makers and communities to promote the standard of living and economic health of their constituents. Africa certainly needs to grow inclusively, but perhaps even more importantly, it should seriously reconsider how it grows and build a more sustainable future path.
*I wrote this article in 2015 for Que Cee Ltd, a management consulting firm.
