The 2016 Seattle Seahawks: No Points for Degree of Difficulty
The Seahawks’ rise to the top of the NFL started the way most empires do: on the backs of cheap labor.
Built around a once-in-a-generation bargain under center and a Legion of (mostly) Late Round Picks patrolling the back-end, John Schneider and Pete Carroll’s Seahawks turned the NFL’s tried and true formula on its head in more ways than one. Youth over experience. Potential trumping pedigree. Sensitive tough guys. Coaches with grit AND glitz. Superstars at bargain prices. Big ticket busts. Position switches. LOUD NOISES. Always Compete/Win Forever/All About the Ball/Mantra/Bromide/Cliché. Short quarterbacks. Slow corners. Enormous safeties. And however the hell you describe Marshawn Lynch.
Just go ahead and try it, Copycat League.
From 2012–2014 the Seahawks’ success was the result of many smart decisions stacked on top of each other. In particular, huge savings at quarterback, cornerback, wide receiver and strong safety afforded Schneider the financial flexibility to construct the deepest and most talented roster in the league. It was a phenomenal feat of talent evaluation, risk-taking and financial planning. It’s also is a feat that will be hard to replicate.
In 2016 we’ll see an even more pronounced version of the shift that started when Russell Wilson signed an appropriately large contract before the 2015 season. Without bargains at quarterback and the back end of the defense, Schneider and Carroll’s (still elite) Seahawks will increasingly be cost-balanced and constructed in a more mainstream way.
That’s not the end of the world.
Schneider and Carroll remain uniquely skilled at finding ways to innovate at the margins (why hello, Thomas Rawls). However, there are two clear areas where the team needs to refine its approach to suit its current realities. That’s what good teams do: they know who they are but continually adjust their philosophy to fit their changing needs.
Stop Sacrificing Precious Draft Capital
Schneider and Carroll are fantastic at finding talent any time after the first round. So much so that the Seahawks haven’t drafted in the first round since 2012 when they selected Bruce Irvin #15 overall. Since then the team has repeatedly moved out of the first round, opting for bulk drafting and big trades with mixed results. The trade for Percy Harvin was, well, a black eye, and Jimmy Graham’s acquisition could still go either way.
Yet in the drafts themselves, Seattle found magic in the middle rounds with Wilson, Richard Sherman, KJ Wright, Kam Chancellor and Tyler Lockett, and pay dirt in undrafted free agents Rawls, Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin.
It’s hard to criticize Seattle’s approach given their results, but it’s also easy to recognize that first round draft picks actually matter. According to a study by Dr. Patrick Rishe, Director of the Sports Business Program at Washington University in St Louis, nearly 30% of NFL starters (as of 2014) were drafted in the first round and nearly half of All-Pros between 2012–2014 were drafted in the first round.
The Seahawks should continue to have a strong hit rate with later round selections, but the longer they go without a first round draft pick, the more the team handicaps itself by sacrificing a privilege that’s statistically most likely to pay dividends.
It’s no guarantee that five years from now the best player from the Seahawks 2016 draft will be a first rounder, but the underlying truth is that first round draft capital is precious, regardless of how good a team is at finding “diamonds in the rough” later.
Start Valuing Offensive Line Experience
Few of us are sophisticated enough to evaluate offensive line play with any level of nuance or accuracy. And it’s again hard to criticize the team when the results have been so good: the Seahawks finished in the top 10 in points per game each of the last four seasons, peaking at fourth in 2015. Yet, the amateur’s eye-test increasingly sees fault with the line’s performance. Part of this is the product of unrealistic fan expectations. But another part of it is the profound observation that THESE GUYS ARE GOING TO GET RUSSELL WILSON KILLED!
The Seahawks have a great offensive line coach in Tom Cable who steadily molds players to fit his system. But there’s an element of unchecked mad scientist going on here that should change. Too often the Seahawks rely on raw materials that are too raw to be entrusted in protecting the team’s most valuable asset. Defensive linemen becoming guards, tight ends becoming tackles, tackles becoming guards. None of these moves are bad ideas in the abstract, but continuing to rely on these types of shifts to make an immediate impact is a bridge too far.
Cable might be a guru, but he isn’t a miracle worker.
The Seahawks need experienced offensive lineman who are asked to play the positions they are actually experienced in. There’s more than one way to do this: sign proven free agents, draft college lineman who will be asked to play the same position in the NFL; keep your existing lineman playing the positions you’ve asked them to learn (e.g. don’t move Garry Gilliam to the other side and Justin Britt back out to tackle).
There’s no silver bullet here, but it’s clear that the Seahawks need to adjust their risk tolerance and willingness to experiment with players on the offensive line (at least with those expected to start).
Evolving To Sustain Success
None of this is a call for the Seahawks to sacrifice who they are. The team’s outside-the-box thinking is what delivered them to the doorstep of greatness. Carroll and Schneider will never be conventional, and they couldn’t be copycats even if they tried. We love them for that.
But there are no points for degree of difficulty in the NFL. Sometimes a first round pick should just be a first round pick, and an offensive lineman should just be an offensive lineman.
