Interesting article and I agree with what you have outlined, although perhaps with a different emphasis.
As no one has left the EU before there are no prior examples to reference. The Leave campaign could say anything they liked without an objective response. Most people agreed that the EU was not performing as well as it could be and took the “Grass is greener on the other side of the fence” option.
It is only once we have left that the consequences of leaving will become clear. Leavers will argue for more time for the benefits of leaving to arrive, Remainers can advocate for a return to the EU on the basis of the decline in people’s living standards since the vote to leave.
The General election in 2020 will be the key point, if Brexit has been a failure then the electorate will vote for parties who campaign on returning to membership of the EU.
Until 2020 remainers have to decide whether to argue for the best possible deal from the EU as a way of minimising the pain of leaving or arguing for a hard Brexit that would maximise the pain of leaving and speed up the eventual return of the UK to membership of the EU.