Ranges: A journey into poker (guess what range of hands the opponent could have, not just “I have a good hand” or “I think he has this specific hand”) source

Hand Range table

What should I play?

We are trying to develop “a raising range from early position against an average tight player.”

I played too much “broadway that is easily dominated after the flop” and rarely wins a big pot (K-Qo, K-Js, K-Ts, Q-Js, and A-Jo). I also speculated with the wrong kind of suited connectors (K-Js, K-Ts, Q-Js, Q-Ts) where I would often hit top pair but lose to better kicker, better hand, or get bluffed. The “broadway suited” hand should be replaced with middle suited connector (it’s easier to get off top pair when it’s 10s w/ 10–9s in your hand than when it’s Kings with KQs in your hand but it’s roughly the same profitability wise).

A better preflop range from early position against tight players…

Estimating the other sides Preflop Range (source)

Post flop: Narrowing the Range

What is a win?

A win is not so much about short term outcomes, but if whoever would’ve played it the same if all the cards were face up.

“Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents’ cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose.

Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.” — David Sklansky’s The Fundamental Theorem of Poker

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