Climatology forecast for Bell’s Beer Bayview Mackinac Race

By Brian Mulloy

July 2, 2014 at 2:02 am

The wind rose shows the distribution of observed wind direction and wind speed at buoy 45003 on Lake Huron for the month of July from 2008 to 2013.

Mark Thornton, a meteorologist and Lake Erie C&C 35 sailor, has published a must-read climatology report for the upcoming Bell’s Beer Bayview Mackinac Race.

Reviewing the long-term average conditions on Lake Huron during July is a great way to set the stage for a weather forecast, particularly for those who are participating in the Race for the first time.

The report is smart, well-written and filled with data, charts and weather wisdom including sections on wind and wave observations, water temperatures and links to marine weather forecasts.

While the surface temperature of Lake Huron is about 5°F degrees cooler than the long-term average, it is significantly colder than the past several years. In particular, the water temperatures in 2009, 2012 and 2013 were well above the long-term average, and more than 10°F warmer than the current average Lake temperature.

Colder than average lake temperatures will impact many dimensions of the race: from wind gusts to crew comfort.