Macron’s Progressive lessons for the Rest of the World.

Sam Alvis
Sam Alvis
Jul 21, 2017 · 8 min read

The remarkable rise of Emmanuel Macron cannot be understated. 15 months ago he made his first ever political speech to a hundred or so people. A few weeks ago he spoke to millions form the Palace of Versailles to announce his presidential programme and sweeping reforms to french political and economic systems. But how can the rest of Europe’s floundering progressives follow suit?

Macron built a movement from the bottom up, with local volunteers making hundreds of thousands of contacts with voters. By employing Liegey Muller Pons (LMP), he had access to the latest political campaigning technology and data. Orginoally from the left he embraced the right, allowing him to take votes from both sides. This was formidable in the french two-round voting system, allowing him to build a sizeable anti-Le Pen coalition. Hard work and fresh ideas won him the first round, the second won itself. Meanwhile in legislative elections La Republique En Marche significantly diminshed the centre-right Les Republicains, and utterly destroyed the centre-left Socialistes.


Commentary on Macron is divided. Whilst the majority of pundits were no doubt happy to see Macron prevent a facist from entering the Élysée, many were underwhelmed by low turnout and his strong arrogant style. Several interpret his anti-Le Pen base as offering little direct support for his agenda.

At the other end of the scale immense hopes rest on Macron’s shoulders. Alongside the second place finish of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, they see Macron’s victory defeating populism, europhobia and the radical right. Together Mackrel (I know, embrace it — it’s better than Merkron) will reignite the Franco-German axis and propel a liberal post-Brexit Europe as leader of the free world.

Finally there are more detached commentators. They see Macron as another Brexit or Trump. A symptom of worldwide political instability, and a voting class who want systems, parties and the world to change.

All these framings are not without their criticisms. The first likely underestimates the French electorate’s desire for change. Macron will meet stiff resistance in his first few months with the far-left and right out to shoot down his labour reforms. But Macron has been given a large majority in the Assemblée nationale by the electorate, and there are others, particularly in Les Républicains, willing to support him..

The second is an unfortunate habit of liberals, who like to view the world as a series of moments. Macron’s victory does not take away from the fact that 35% of France voted for a facist as did 49% of Austrians. Five star in Italy are top of the polls. The PVV in the Netherlands gained five seats to become the second largest party. They are only outside government as the other parties refuse to work with them. These parties have been accruing votes for many years. They won’t be going anywhere just because they lost, Liberals would be minded to remember that and not rest on their laurels.

The final view is probably closest to reality. It’s true that French voters were sick of the orthodoxy of the two main parties. Trump, Brexit and Corbyn are certainly political outsiders. Although in Corbyn’s case read unsuccessful rather than uninvolved. But it misses an important reading of the French electorate. France likes strong, charismatic presidents. It might be going to too far to say they’d embrace another Louis, but De Gaulle, Mitterand, Chirac show they like a president to take control. (leaving aside that these are all white, well off, middle aged men). This view also misses that without penelopegate France also would’ve likely had Fillon welcoming Trump to Bastille day 2017, while Manuel Valls may have left fewer votes PS up for grabs.

Drawing lessons across borders always ignores deeply national factors in elections. That said, I’m going to do the same.

There are a spate of imagined future articles recreating Macron style movements in Britain, Italy or elsewhere. Two this week are calling for a Turkish Macron and labelling Israeli Labour’s new leader the Jewish Emmanuel. But is it realistic to think Macron’s model could happen elsewhere?

UK

Some have looked at the Labour Party manifesto for 2017 and painted it as a Macron style pitch. It wasn’t. Whilst the Labour party attracted a lot of the same kind of voters — wealthy, metropolitan broadly middle class — Macron did much better with older voters. These are the voters more fearful of the return of a Le Pen. Unlike the UK the Front Nationale do well with young voters. The Labour manifesto was also deeply conservative. There were no new ideas, no radical reform, no embracing of globalism or Europe. Financial giveaways to students and elder voters are not the same as a brand new system.

Increasingly in the UK personalities matter. Voters liked Cameron over Miliband, and many have been drawn to Corbyn’s relaxed style and outsider image. But the UK system doesn’t lend itself to presidential campaigns, as Theresa May found out. Macron also built a brand new political movement. While many of Corbyn’s supporters see him as anti-establishment he has been a Labour MP since 1983. Britain embraced two party politics again this year. France has almost killed it.

Much of the pro-Corbyn sentiment in the UK was also anti-austerity. Macron campaigned on reduced public spending and tighter belts. Corbyn is not Macron — he is Mélechon. The Lib Dems know all too well that a pro-EU, internationalist, socially liberal message is still not a vote winner in Britain.

Italy

Young, charismatic, pro-EU, fiscally centrist reformer — some in Italy will be looking to France and wishing Macron good luck. Italy has been there and done that and it did not go well. Matteo Renzi was forced to quit this year as both Prime Minister and leader of the Democratic Party (PD). Renzi ran up against the same problems Macron will face. Entrenched systems, resistant local government and judiciary, and a populist movement with renewed vigour. But Renzi will be back, and will likely run on a similar platform.

Italy is not France, their banking and fiscal problems are much worse. The south is still desperately poor and in pockets controlled by organised crime. They are also under much worse strain from an unsolved refugee crisis. Renzi will be up against a 5* movement, who already control key regions including the Rome Mayoralty. Beppe Grillo is a more affable face than Le Pen, and without the same history. Renzi’s position inside a now fractured PD also makes an outsider image much harder.

Germany

Seriously? Germany have had an economically liberal, pro-EU candidate in charge for the past 12 years, and will do for another four. Merkel already engages on the international stage, and has a strong image at home and abroad. But a reformer she is not. Germany has been through reforms, at times painful ones. Gerhard Schröder’s ‘Agenda 2010’ and it’s effects is one of the reasons Merkel has been able to benefit from a thriving economy.

The Free Democratic Party, previously the only centrist party until Merkel took up all of the political space, crashed out of the Bundestag in 2012. Their recent rise should see them back in 2017, and possible in coalition with Merkel’s CDU/CSU but on a wholly different platform to Macron. One that is much more small state and classically liberal. Although they too are relying on a young, charismatic in the 38 year old Christian Linder.

The CDU/CSU will and are campaigning on a pro-EU message but Germany are not reformers. On the world stage they are trying to maintain the status quo, and domestically there is no will to shift from an export orientated economy. It may be that Merkel post-September uses some political capital to support Macron’s desire for Eurozone reform, but it’s clear that Germany as a whole are not keen.

Elsewhere?

In the Netherlands establishment parties tacked to the right on immigration to steal Wilders’ votes. None threw their weight behind the EU which the Dutch public are currently deeply skeptical of. In Spain insurgent parties have broken the two party-system, and like France mostly at the expense of the centre-left but they are still led by a traditional centre right People’s Party. Canada is maybe the best example with Trudeau and Macron already captivating the world with a blossoming bro-mance. But Canadian identity is a different beast, more accepting of immigration and a less conceptualised nation-state than in Europe.

So what can the rest of Europe learn from Macron, even if a Macron style programme does not suit the rest of the continent.

  1. Data is king. In 2017 if you cannot micro-target voters you are already losing. Labour and the Conservatives are getting there, but start-ups still have better tech, and better ways of using data than traditional party machines.
  2. Listen to voters and use the information. Macron’s move embraced local activism, allowing volunteers to run their own branches and adapt the movement to their towns. Every conversation was fed back to the central office so that policies and rhetorics could be adapted to the widest audience.
  3. Be positive and brave, but tell voters what’s in it for them. Most politicians get the second bit. In the UK Labour’s manifesto was full of things for voters, but it was still deeply fearful of the modern world. Defined by opposition to Tory policies not new ones. Macron appealed to those sick of the status quo, but never shied away from the changes and reform that would be needed to get to a better future.
  4. Take on populism. Too often liberals brush off populism dismissing it as racist or economically illiterate. More must be done to debate voters concerns and lure them to more workable policies. Macron had the strength to meet FN voters and hear their concerns. Democrats, Labour, or the SDP should do the same.

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Sam Alvis

Written by

Sam Alvis

Former @UKLabour Staffer and now Policy Wonk interested in Research, Innovation, Geopolitics and Sustainability

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