May must change course on devolution

Theresa May can no longer continue on a collision course with the Scottish and Welsh Governments.

Sam Shenton
Aug 9, 2017 · 4 min read

Shortly after June’s General Election, Theresa May admitted in Prime Minister’s Questions a weakness in the Government’s Brexit plan. Since the January Supreme Court Decision was made to say that the Devolved Governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland need not be consulted on the triggering of Article 50, the UK Government has continued largely alone, ignoring most of the noise from any of the devolved nations on the issue. In March, the Government triggered Article 50, but now the next part of the Brexit plan is about to get under way.

The European Union (Withdrawal) Bill (formerly the ‘Great Repeal Bill’) is scheduled to come before parliament in the Autumn after the conference season, but Mrs. May has already exposed the weakness in this plan. Under the Sewel Convention, the devolved legislatures must first pass a Legislative Consent Motion on the Bill, because it allows Westminster to temporarily re-take powers that have been devolved, in Scotland’s case, since 1999. The issue is that the Scottish Government, formed of the SNP and needing just 6 votes more to have a majority — which it will likely get with the help of the Greens and Lib Dems — have promised to vote against consent for the Bill.

The Welsh Labour — Lib Dem coalition Government and Plaid Cymru AMs in Cardiff Bay are also likely to vote against giving Welsh consent for the Bill after the Government and main opposition party had their Brexit white paper largely ignored. The issue for the Prime Minister is that she no longer has the political authority to deal with such a challenge in any authoritative manner, as she would have done before the election. Before April, the plan was probably to allow Legislative Consent Motions to take place, but to largely ignore their result. That is no longer an option.

Any over-riding of the rejection of consent from the Welsh Government will likely ensure that Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs and Lords will frustrate the Bill’s passing through parliament, leaving Theresa May’s premiership on life-support. Ignoring the voice of the Scottish Parliament is likely to undermine the recent Scottish Conservative revival, and Mrs. May still has 35 Scottish Nationalist MPs opposite her that will also frustrate the passage of legislation on Brexit through parliament, even if they are a significantly weakened force even compared to just two years ago. This frustration is likely to anger Conservative MPs who are already tired of the Prime Minister, and increase calls again for May to step aside.

The situation would of course be different had the Tories gained the majority they thought they would at the start of the election campaign — even solidly Labour Wales looked as though it could fall. Instead, Labour achieved 49% of the vote in Wales, and the Scottish Nationalists still hold a majority of seats in Scotland and are the Government at Holyrood. Just as May’s authority has decreased within her party, so too has it in the wider country. A limping Prime Minister can no longer afford to be on a collision course with the devolved Governments.

With that, Theresa May must change track on her policy towards the devolved Governments. The EU (Withdrawal) Bill is a necessary step to ensure an orderly Brexit in line with the expectations of all parties and Governments in the UK. But the provision of re-taking powers, even temporarily, will prove too controversial if May isn’t willing to talk and alter her proposals.

Carwyn Jones and Nicola Sturgeon at the Bitish — Irish Council

May’s problem is one that has been shared with all Governments since the dawn of devolution in the 1990s. The hierarchical relationship that the UK Government imposes on the devolved is long overdue for a review, especially considering now that all four governments are now ran by different Parties with varying objectives. Unlike Labour’s dominance just 10 years ago meaning that communications could be made within the Party itself rather than officially between different administrations, the current situation requires something different, especially with Brexit.

The need to maintain the integrity of the UK single market after Brexit while also respecting the mandates and jurisdictions of the devolved Governments means May’s Centralist tendencies must be put now to one side in favour of a model of greater, formal co-operation. That means out with meetings once a year between First Ministers and the Prime Minister, and in with direct communication between the devolved administrations and their respective cabinet level offices is a start, but ultimately we must build an organisation where the Governments of all parts of the UK meet to develop policy on devolved areas like agriculture and fisheries that are integral to the maintenance of that single market and regulations.

What that organisation would look like is up to the ministers that build it and use it, and it must be flexible enough to adapt to changes in the devolution settlements. But what is clear now is that Theresa May’s reputation and desire to control Brexit from №10 must collapse not just into the Cabinet, but also to devolved Governments in areas they currently control. The Prime Minister simply doesn’t have the political authority left to offer any other way.

Sam Shenton

Written by

Observations from a 22 year old on UK and US politics.

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