Theresa May’s Revolution
Labour’s historic loss in Copeland to the Conservatives should embolden PM Theresa May as she carries out the biggest electoral revolution of the her Party since the days of Margaret Thatcher.
By Sam W. Shenton | 25th February 2017
Theresa May has been in power little over six months. Taking over from David Cameron after his resignation and the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, she became PM when the country she would lead was in a state of flux and a state of shock. Since that day in July, Theresa May has transformed her Conservative Party and her government in drastic ways, and also set out her philosophy and her new direction for the party she once branded “the nasty party,” in an attempt to wrestle the Party away from Cameron’s “posh boy Etonism” and towards more working class and blue colour conservatism. With Brexit as the focus, a divided Labour Party and a new brand, Theresa May has achieved in very little time what no Tory leader since Margaret Thatcher has achieved.
Theresa May’s Conservative Party achieved what no Governing Party has achieved since 1982: take a seat from another party in a by-election. For the first time since 1960 the Conservative Party took a seat directly from Labour while in government that wasn’t triggered by a defection to the SDP – and perhaps most striking of all: the Tories took Copeland, a seat Labour have held since 1935, changing a Labour majority of 2,564 (6.5%) into a Conservative majority of 2,147 (7.0%). What’s more, is that the Tories achieved this win on a 6.7% swing from Labour to Conservative – the biggest swing to a governing party from the opposition since the 1960s, and a bigger swing than even the current polling – which has the Tories on between a 10% and 18% lead nationally – would predict.
In taking Copeland in such a dramatic fashion, the Tories have proved multiple things. The first is that the Labour Party is no longer the Party of Working Class People. Polling had already shown the Tories ahead among C2DE voters, sitting on 39% to Labour’s 20% – while UKIP, a party defeated in Stoke-on-Trent Central on the same night by Labour’s Gareth Snell, sits on 23%. This was, to some effect, shown to be the case in Copeland: 56% of the constituency is working class voters, many of which are supported by the local Nuclear industry. Labour won Postal votes by just 2% over the Conservatives according to some reports, while the two were neck and neck in the main working class town of Whitehaven. In the more rural, Conservative outer wards, the Tories stormed home to their overall victory.
What could be a greater indication than this that Labour no longer stand up for the working class – and, that in many ways, the Tories now may do? Labour’s disconnect from its traditional base over Brexit with two-thirds of its MPs noes sitting in Leave seats has meant Theresa May has been able to capitalise on this softening of Labour support with her determination to implement Brexit. Meanwhile, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s views on nuclear power, Trident nuclear weapons and over traditional, high-skilled manual industries have meant that traditional Labour voters in Labour industries are turning away from the party they once consistently backed because of Labour’s push away and May’s ability to convince voters that she, and her new brand of Conservatism, can speak for them.
It isn’t just Brexit nor simply Jeremy Corbyn’s weaknesses that Theresa May can speak for towards traditional working class Labour voters with Theresa May’s philosophy and political history speaking more to working class voters than most of her Tory leadership predecessors. While David Cameron was perceived as a posh boy Etonian who got to the top because of his status and connections, placing his friends like George Osborne in the Cabinet and ruling in contrast to a Labour Party that was still ahead among working voters. Theresa May, meanwhile, appeals much more to Labour voters – with pluralities in most polls showing that Theresa May is the preferred candidate for Prime Minister among working class voters. Theresa May is also incredibly popular, with the PM leading both Jeremy Corbyn and “Don’t Know” for better candidate for Prime Minister by margins as large as 50% points.
May’s initial philosophy and campaign slogans of “a country that works for everyone,” defined her stall as someone that wants to look out for “the J-A-Ms” – those just about managing to make ends meet – and as someone in touch and on the side of working class people with measures like relaxing budget cuts in the first autumn statement. When Ed Miliband was in opposition, the One Nation Labourism he pioneered was defeated in the election – and now Theresa May’s rebuilding of that “One Nation” concept has seen her grow in popularity as Prime Minister, while the new leader of the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn has just slipped and slipped. It’s also important to consider May’s background here: Theresa May appears to have worked her way to the top from a middle class background, while David Cameron’s “posh boy” narrative has been in place since since his days at Eton and his membership of the Bullingdon Club.
In short: Theresa May and her brand of Conservatism is much less toxic – and in the aftermath of Brexit, even appealing – to large swathes of traditional working class voters. While Cameron softened the Tories image away from that of the “nasty party,” he was still held back by his background. Theresa May has sought to establish the Tories as a party for workers, and as a party that wants to look out for those that are “just about managing.” In taking Copeland from Labour, it’s reassurance that her strategy is working and that her revolution is gathering pace in the weeks ahead of triggering Article 50.
