Theresa May’s way out is blurry, at best

On an unprecedented level, this Prime Minister is left at the mercy of events.

Sam Shenton
Aug 27, 2017 · 4 min read

The Mirror, late Saturday evening, published a surprise story. After weeks of seeking unity around her premiership, Theresa May had actually been planning her departure, and has even gone as far as setting a date when she will visit HM the Queen to deliver her resignation — Friday, August 30th 2019. Should this story turn out to be correct (at the time of writing no other major news outlet has actually got hold of the story beyond a simple ‘copy and paste’, making it purely speculative) Mrs. May will spend roughly three years as Prime Minister, a term only comparable to Labour’s Gordon Brown.

We’ve known Theresa May’s destination — somewhere far away from №10 — has been set for some time, but what we’ve ben missing is a departure time. The date set may have logic, that the next Prime Minister can come on board and get to work straight away after the summer recess, but the idea Theresa May wouldn’t get to face one last Prime Minister’s Question Time and pay direct tribute to her successor from the dispatch box would be out of line with recent successions, not least her own after David Cameron’s resignation and transition of power in July 2016. But there are other problems with any set date, yet alone this one.

Firstly, Theresa May has got her mojo back. Her final PMQs before the Summer Recess was everything Conservative MPs love about their leader (and after the election they have to find something to love about her). Cool, commanding and accurate in her responses, she arguably conducts her PMQs better than any Prime Minister of this century. Giving into demands from her most critical set of MPs and Ministers for her to set a departure date will undermine her authority and formalise the current shadow-leadership contest. Things had been returning to normal with the view that May would continue as Prime Minister for some time; this will ensure October’s conference becomes the beauty pageant for MPs she wanted to avoid.

But beyond that, this Prime Minister, possibly to a greater extent than any modern PM, is at the mercy of events. Brexit negotiations are scheduled to end by March 2019, but the cabinet has spoken of the desire to attain a transition deal. If that is the case, this departure deal would send May off just as the transition deal has begun, blowing open the debate about what Britain wants to look like after Brexit wide-open again. If May goes at that time, any Tory Leadership contest would be a battle between hardcore Eurosceptics and those who desire a softer, more liberal Brexit. Home Secretary Amber Rudd would be lined up to run on behalf of all Remainers, if we’re still negotiating, David Davis would be running on behalf of Eurosceptics, for example.

Unless Rudd or Davis, in this scenario, could be coronated in the spirit of unity, like Theresa May herself was in July 2016 after Andrea Leadsom withdrew from the race, May risks leaving the Conservative Party more divided, more at war and more clueless on what Brexit will eventually look like and mean than at any other point since the EU Referendum. That’s assuming there would be a transition in place of course, and that the UK hasn’t crashed out of the UK with no deal on a future partnership with the European Union.

If a ‘No Deal’ scenario materialises, then a leadership contest would definitely not be in the best interests of the country. It would be up for May and her Cabinet to do what they could to wear off an impending recession; establishing quick trade agreements with other countries like Japan and the United States to offer economic stimulus, and re-starting negotiations with the European Union over such aspects as Trade, Security and the border in Northern Ireland. May couldn’t simply walk at midnight on August 30th, 2019, with such a crisis on the horizon. Not to mention any such failure could push confidence in her Government out and lead to a new election, with little time to replace Theresa May as leader.


On a final note; this date-setting seems lost unlike Theresa May. As someone who knows the tasks she faces in the next two years and how they will be effected by various events, she knows not what date will be best for her departure. She may be telling MPs “a few more years of me”, but she should t be speculating on specific dates at this time. She knows she’s at the mercy of events, but we also know she isn’t a flashy politician willing to make a song and dance about herself and would rather push on with her agenda than get distracted. That’s why this story seems weird, at best, and it’s good that Downing Street has dismissed it as “peak silly season”.

With all that in mind, it’s not clear to see when Theresa May will finally depart No.10. What is clear, however, is that more speculation about leadership will lead to dysfunctional government, and MPs must continue to support Mrs. May in post for the foreseeable future.

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Sam Shenton

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Observations from a 22 year old on UK and US politics.

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