Netflix’s 2014 European Expansion

by Samantha Krahenbuhl


It may end up being that Netflix will succeed where Napoleon failed; complete domination of Europe. And despite Napoleon’s failure, Netflix seems far from dissuaded.

The streaming service has plans to expand its footprint in Europe this year, as CEO Reed Hastings indicated in January. However, what he didn’t say was what order the countries are in in terms of importance.

Netflix has already planted its flag in the U.K., The Netherlands, and Scandinavia, and this next wave of destinations will differ from those in one important facet: Incumbent pay-TV providers and pure-play streaming providers from Spain to Russia have anticipated the entry of the U.S. juggernaut into their markets, and have had ample time to develop broadband-delivered VOD plays of their own. Nevertheless, a complex web of factors will make Netflix’s border crossing either brutal or easy, depending on which nation is stamping its passport. Any way that you look at it though, existing subscription VOD services across Europe are bracing for Netflix’s impact.

“We can’t compete with Netflix in terms of volume of titles and rates, but we can stand out thanks to the quality of our editorial content,” said Bruno Delecour, president of FilmoTV, a French subscription VOD service. “That makes FilmoTV different from superstores like Netflix.”

Europe is expecting Netflix without a doubt, and Netflix has conceded its intention to further expand into continental Europe in the firm’s fourth quarter earnings announcement in January, and has expressed confidence that it will be able to compete with its competitors there.

Netflix has always planned on worldwide growth and expansion into markets it has yet to penetrate. A more diverse subscriber base will go a long way towards recovering the $3 billion it spent in 2013 on content, and improve its free cash flow, which has been negative over the past two years despite raking in $112 million in net income last year. Additionally, the company has announced its intention to raise $400 million in debt to help fund its international expansion and original programming, on top of the $500 million in debt it’s already carrying on its balance sheet.

Netflix closed out 2013 with roughly 32 million paid subscribers in the U.S., and another 9.7 million scattered abroad in the 40 nations its service is currently available in. Roughly a third of its abroad subscriptions are estimated to come from the Canada, its first international market where it launched in 2010. Latin America came on board in 2011 followed by the U.K. and the nordic countries in 2012. Netflix signaled from the start of 2013 that its expansion plans would have to decelerate for cost-control reasons, but still added one small market, the Netherlands, in 2013.

Netflix’s international business accounted for roughly 21% of the company’s streaming revenue last year, but posted a loss of $274.3 million. Profitability from Canada took two years, and reaching profitability in the expanded European market will undoubtably take longer than that. Despite the adversity, Morgan Stanley is bullish on Netflix’s European expansion, projecting Netflix to add 30 million paid subscribers over the next four years. Citi Research believes the U.K. will be the primary driver of such growth.